Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at SEA?

The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1STL

STL

23-29-9

SEA

29-23-9

NHLWed, Mar 4FinalSeriesSTL wins series 2-1VegasSEA -148

STL · top performer

Dylan Holloway

LW · #81

1Points

—

SOG

SEA · top performer

Vince Dunn

D · #29

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BuchnevichLW · #89	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	16:49
D. DvorskyRW · #54	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:27
J. FinleyC · #37	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	12:03
D. HollowayLW · #81	1	0	1	6	1	0	0	16:12
J. KyrouRW · #25	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	14:26
J. NeighboursLW · #63	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	13:58
B. SchennC · #10	0	3	2	3	2	2	0	14:24
J. SnuggerudRW · #21	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	14:21
O. SundqvistC · #70	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	12:48
P. SuterC · #22	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	15:08
R. ThomasC · #18	1	1	0	2	0	1	0	16:53
A. ToropchenkoRW · #13	0	0	0	1	2	1	2	13:02

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BrobergD · #6	0	1	-1	3	1	0	0	26:19
J. FaulkD · #72	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	22:45
C. FowlerD · #17	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	20:44
M. KesselD · #51	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	13:10
L. MaillouxD · #23	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	22:52
T. TuckerD · #75	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	11:39

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. HoferG · #30	36	2	34	.944	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BeniersC · #10	0	0	0	5	0	3	0	19:19
B. CattonC · #27	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	12:20
J. EberleRW · #7	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	17:29
F. GaudreauC · #89	0	0	-1	0	0	2	0	15:18
K. KakkoRW · #84	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	13:04
J. McCannLW · #19	0	1	1	5	2	0	0	17:43
J. MelansonRW · #63	0	0	0	0	8	0	0	11:02
B. MeyersC · #59	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	14:00
J. SchwartzC · #17	1	0	-1	1	1	1	0	14:49
C. StephensonC · #9	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	17:51
E. TolvanenRW · #20	0	0	-1	2	2	0	2	16:45
S. WrightC · #51	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	12:36

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DunnD · #29	1	1	2	3	0	0	0	20:12
R. EvansD · #41	0	0	-3	1	0	0	0	16:36
A. LarssonD · #6	0	1	2	3	1	2	0	19:47
R. LindgrenD · #55	0	0	-2	0	1	0	0	13:46
B. MontourD · #62	0	0	-1	6	1	0	0	26:10
J. OleksiakD · #24	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	19:09

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. GrubauerG · #31	27	3	24	.889	58:04

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

STL wins series 2-1

Nov 9

SEA4@

STL3

Feb 27

SEA1@

STL5

Mar 5

STL3@

SEA2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SEA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

STL+12445%

SEA-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗

Line movement · 23 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

STL beat SEA 3-2. D. Holloway led the way — 1 G · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
STL	1	1	1	3
SEA	1	0	1	2

Period scoring

STL won 1 · SEA won 0

STL

SEA

Play-by-play · 299 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
STL 3·SEA 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
STL 3·SEA 2
3rd·19:55
Chandler Stephenson faceoff won against Jack Finley
·
STL 3·SEA 2
3rd·19:55
Goalie Stopped
STL 3·SEA 2
3rd·19:53
Brandon Montour Slap Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
STL 3·SEA 2
3rd·19:36
Jordan Eberle Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
STL 3·SEA 2
3rd·19:34
Brandon Montour Slap Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
STL 3·SEA 2
3rd·19:22
Brandon Montour Slap Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
STL 3·SEA 2
3rd·19:03
Pius Suter faceoff won against Chandler Stephenson
·
STL 3·SEA 2
3rd·19:03
Goalie Stopped
STL 3·SEA 2
3rd·19:01
Matty Beniers Tip-In saved by Joel Hofer
·
STL 3·SEA 2
3rd·18:47
Philip Broberg shot blocked by Matty Beniers
·
STL 3·SEA 2
3rd·18:25
Pius Suter faceoff won against Matty Beniers
·
STL 3·SEA 2
3rd·18:25
Goalie Stopped
STL 3·SEA 2
3rd·18:23
Brandon Montour Slap Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
STL 3·SEA 2
3rd·18:00
Jordan Eberle Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
STL 3·SEA 2
3rd·17:58
Matty Beniers Tip-In saved by Joel Hofer
·
STL 3·SEA 2
3rd·17:54
Robert Thomas faceoff won against Chandler Stephenson
·
STL 3·SEA 2
3rd·17:54
Justin Faulk Delaying Game - Puck over glass
STL 3·SEA 2
3rd·17:48
Robert Thomas faceoff won against Chandler Stephenson
·
STL 3·SEA 2
3rd·17:48
Puck in Netting
STL 3·SEA 2
3rd·17:47
Matty Beniers shot blocked by Brayden Schenn
·
STL 3·SEA 2
3rd·17:45
Brandon Montour shot blocked by Jimmy Snuggerud
·
STL 3·SEA 2
3rd·17:42
Matty Beniers faceoff won against Brayden Schenn
·
STL 3·SEA 2
3rd·17:42
Puck in Netting
STL 3·SEA 2
3rd·17:40
Adam Larsson Slap Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
STL 3·SEA 2
3rd·17:26
Giveaway by Justin Faulk
STL 3·SEA 2
3rd·17:10
Giveaway by Justin Faulk
STL 3·SEA 2
3rd·17:06
Dalibor Dvorsky faceoff won against Shane Wright
·
STL 3·SEA 2
3rd·17:06
Puck in Benches
STL 3·SEA 2

Betting line

SEA -1.5·O/U 6.5·STL +124/SEA -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

t. Louis Blues went into Seattle Kraken and beat them, 3–2.

STL +1.5 cashed (SEA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.9%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
63.9%
P(SEA win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
63.9%
P(SEA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
63.9%
P(SEA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-148

Close price

-148

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at SEA?: The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

St. Louis BluesSeattle Kraken

Elsewhere in the NHL