
VGK
29-19-14

DET
35-20-7
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
egas Golden Knights went into Detroit Red Wings and beat them, 4–3 in overtime.
VGK +1.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
VGK · top performer

Mitch Marner
RW · #93
1
G
2
A
—
SOG
DET · top performer

Alex DeBrincat
RW · #93
1
G
1
A
—
SOG
NHL · Vegas Golden Knights at Detroit Red Wings · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE


VGK
29-19-14
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
DET
35-20-7
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
8
PIM
4
Season series
VGK wins series 2-0
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
DET -1.5
Total
6.5
Defensive · -2.0 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 10 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
6.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
VGK beat DET 4-3.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| DET | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Period scoring
VGK won 2 · DET won 1
1
2
3
OT
Play-by-play · 284 plays
- OT·2:11
Game End
VGK 4·DET 3
- OT·2:11
End of OT
VGK 4·DET 3
- OT·2:11
Tomas Hertl Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (45), Rasmus Andersson (25)
· ·
VGK 4·DET 3
- OT·1:52
Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Tomas Hertl
·
VGK 3·DET 3
- OT·1:52
Simon Edvinsson Slashing against Braeden Bowman
·
VGK 3·DET 3
- OT·1:49
Braeden Bowman Backhand Wide Right
·
VGK 3·DET 3
- OT·1:36
Jack Eichel Snap Shot Wide Left
·
VGK 3·DET 3
- OT·1:16
Moritz Seider Snap Shot saved by Adin Hill
·
VGK 3·DET 3
- OT·1:08
Pavel Dorofeyev Backhand saved by Cam Talbot
·
VGK 3·DET 3
- OT·0:40
Jack Eichel shot blocked by Andrew Copp
·
VGK 3·DET 3
- OT·0:00
Andrew Copp faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
VGK 3·DET 3
- OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
VGK 3·DET 3
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
VGK 3·DET 3
- 3rd·19:54
Andrew Copp faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
VGK 3·DET 3
- 3rd·19:54
Off-side
VGK 3·DET 3
- 3rd·19:41
Andrew Copp faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
VGK 3·DET 3
- 3rd·19:41
On-Ice Official
VGK 3·DET 3
- 3rd·19:40
Mason Appleton Backhand Hit Right Post
·
VGK 3·DET 3
- 3rd·19:28
Marco Kasper faceoff won against Colton Sissons
·
VGK 3·DET 3
- 3rd·19:28
High Stick
VGK 3·DET 3
- 3rd·19:19
Patrick Kane shot blocked by Rasmus Andersson
·
VGK 3·DET 3
- 3rd·19:12
Alex DeBrincat Batted Above Crossbar
·
VGK 3·DET 3
- 3rd·19:11
Alex DeBrincat shot blocked by Rasmus Andersson
·
VGK 3·DET 3
- 3rd·19:10
Andrew Copp Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill
·
VGK 3·DET 3
- 3rd·19:09
Andrew Copp Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill
·
VGK 3·DET 3
- 3rd·19:07
Alex DeBrincat Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill
·
VGK 3·DET 3
- 3rd·18:34
Moritz Seider Snap Shot saved by Adin Hill
·
VGK 3·DET 3
- 3rd·18:17
Andrew Copp faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
VGK 3·DET 3
- 3rd·18:17
Puck in Crowd
VGK 3·DET 3
- 3rd·18:08
Alex DeBrincat Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill
·
VGK 3·DET 3
Team stats
VGK
Away
Stat
DET
Home
25
Shots
26
50.0
PCT
0.0
8
PIM
4
25
Faceoffs W
31
10
Blocks
16
11
Giveaways
13
4
Takeaways
5
Betting line
DET -1.5·O/U 6.5·VGK +114/DET -135
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
Jack EichelVGK · CDIST MI58.999+
Moritz SeiderDET · DDIST MI299.899
Shea TheodoreVGK · DSKATE MPH23.399
Mitch MarnerVGK · RWDIST MI53.598
Noah HanifinVGK · DBURSTS1998
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.1%
ensemble · DET favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
-135
Close price
-135
Open no-vig
55.1%
Close no-vig
55.1%
Line barely moved · Graded: miss