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FINAL+1VGK
VGK

VGK

29-19-14

43
DET

DET

35-20-7

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLWed, Mar 4FinalSeriesVGK wins series 2-0VegasDET -135

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights went into Detroit Red Wings and beat them, 4–3 in overtime.

VGK +1.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

VGK · top performer

VGK
Mitch Marner

Mitch Marner

RW · #93

3Points

1

G

2

A

—

SOG

DET · top performer

DET
Alex DeBrincat

Alex DeBrincat

RW · #93

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Vegas Golden Knights at Detroit Red Wings · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
4
3
VGK29-19-14DET35-20-7
VGK

VGK

29-19-14

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
DET

DET

35-20-7

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

4

Season series

VGK wins series 2-0

Nov 5DETDET0@VGKVGK1
Mar 5VGKVGK4@DETDET3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGKVGK+11447%
DETDET-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat DET 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
VGK10214
DET30003

Period scoring

VGK won 2 · DET won 1

1
3

1

0
0

2

2
0

3

1
0

OT

VGK
DET

Play-by-play · 284 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·2:11

    Game End

    VGK 4·DET 3

  2. OT·2:11

    End of OT

    VGK 4·DET 3

  3. OT·2:11

    Tomas Hertl Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (45), Rasmus Andersson (25)

    · ·

    VGK 4·DET 3

  4. OT·1:52

    Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Tomas Hertl

    ·

    VGK 3·DET 3

  5. OT·1:52

    Simon Edvinsson Slashing against Braeden Bowman

    ·

    VGK 3·DET 3

  6. OT·1:49

    Braeden Bowman Backhand Wide Right

    ·

    VGK 3·DET 3

  7. OT·1:36

    Jack Eichel Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    VGK 3·DET 3

  8. OT·1:16

    Moritz Seider Snap Shot saved by Adin Hill

    ·

    VGK 3·DET 3

  9. OT·1:08

    Pavel Dorofeyev Backhand saved by Cam Talbot

    ·

    VGK 3·DET 3

  10. OT·0:40

    Jack Eichel shot blocked by Andrew Copp

    ·

    VGK 3·DET 3

  11. OT·0:00

    Andrew Copp faceoff won against Jack Eichel

    ·

    VGK 3·DET 3

  12. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    VGK 3·DET 3

  13. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    VGK 3·DET 3

  14. 3rd·19:54

    Andrew Copp faceoff won against Jack Eichel

    ·

    VGK 3·DET 3

  15. 3rd·19:54

    Off-side

    VGK 3·DET 3

  16. 3rd·19:41

    Andrew Copp faceoff won against Jack Eichel

    ·

    VGK 3·DET 3

  17. 3rd·19:41

    On-Ice Official

    VGK 3·DET 3

  18. 3rd·19:40

    Mason Appleton Backhand Hit Right Post

    ·

    VGK 3·DET 3

  19. 3rd·19:28

    Marco Kasper faceoff won against Colton Sissons

    ·

    VGK 3·DET 3

  20. 3rd·19:28

    High Stick

    VGK 3·DET 3

  21. 3rd·19:19

    Patrick Kane shot blocked by Rasmus Andersson

    ·

    VGK 3·DET 3

  22. 3rd·19:12

    Alex DeBrincat Batted Above Crossbar

    ·

    VGK 3·DET 3

  23. 3rd·19:11

    Alex DeBrincat shot blocked by Rasmus Andersson

    ·

    VGK 3·DET 3

  24. 3rd·19:10

    Andrew Copp Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill

    ·

    VGK 3·DET 3

  25. 3rd·19:09

    Andrew Copp Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill

    ·

    VGK 3·DET 3

  26. 3rd·19:07

    Alex DeBrincat Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill

    ·

    VGK 3·DET 3

  27. 3rd·18:34

    Moritz Seider Snap Shot saved by Adin Hill

    ·

    VGK 3·DET 3

  28. 3rd·18:17

    Andrew Copp faceoff won against Jack Eichel

    ·

    VGK 3·DET 3

  29. 3rd·18:17

    Puck in Crowd

    VGK 3·DET 3

  30. 3rd·18:08

    Alex DeBrincat Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill

    ·

    VGK 3·DET 3

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

DET

Home

25

Shots

26

50.0

PCT

0.0

8

PIM

4

25

Faceoffs W

31

10

Blocks

16

11

Giveaways

13

4

Takeaways

5

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 6.5·VGK +114/DET -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Jack EichelVGK · C
    DIST MI58.999+
  • Moritz SeiderDET · D
    DIST MI299.899
  • Shea TheodoreVGK · D
    SKATE MPH23.399
  • Mitch MarnerVGK · RW
    DIST MI53.598
  • Noah HanifinVGK · D
    BURSTS1998

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DET win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-135

Close price

-135

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR