Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at DET?

The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1VGK

VGK

29-19-14

DET

35-20-7

NHLWed, Mar 4FinalSeriesVGK wins series 2-0VegasDET -135

VGK · top performer

Mitch Marner

RW · #93

3Points

—

SOG

DET · top performer

Alex DeBrincat

RW · #93

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	18:30
B. BowmanRW · #42	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	17:53
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	15:48
J. EichelC · #9	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	23:45
T. HertlC · #48	1	1	-1	2	1	1	4	16:33
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	12:06
M. MarnerRW · #93	1	2	2	1	1	0	0	19:59
C. ReinhardtLW · #23	0	0	-2	1	3	0	0	7:51
B. SaadLW · #20	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	8:22
C. SissonsC · #10	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	15:23
R. SmithRW · #19	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:12
C. SmithRW · #22	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:13

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	2	0	1	0	3	0	23:28
N. HanifinD · #15	0	1	2	1	0	1	0	20:30
K. KorczakD · #6	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	13:32
J. LauzonD · #5	0	0	-2	0	2	0	0	16:46
B. McNabbD · #3	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	20:48
S. TheodoreD · #27	0	1	0	2	0	3	2	24:13

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. HillG · #33	26	3	23	.885	62:11

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AppletonC · #22	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:03
J.T. CompherLW · #37	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	11:05
A. CoppC · #18	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	18:54
A. DeBrincatRW · #93	1	1	1	3	0	1	0	20:39
E. FinnieC · #58	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	13:22
P. KaneRW · #88	0	0	-1	1	0	2	0	20:57
M. KasperC · #92	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:01
D. LarkinC · #71	0	0	-2	4	0	0	2	21:32
M. RasmussenC · #27	0	0	-2	0	2	1	0	16:09
L. RaymondLW · #23	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	21:18
D. ShineRW · #65	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	8:03
J. van RiemsdykLW · #21	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:39

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Bernard-DockerD · #25	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	17:59
B. ChiarotD · #8	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	22:40
S. EdvinssonD · #77	1	1	1	3	1	4	2	24:03
A. JohanssonD · #20	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:55
A. Sandin-PellikkaD · #44	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	9:37
M. SeiderD · #53	0	1	1	3	2	2	0	28:40

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. TalbotG · #39	25	4	21	.840	62:08

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

DET

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

VGK wins series 2-0

Nov 5

DET0@

VGK1

Mar 5

VGK4@

DET3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGK+11447%

DET-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 20 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat DET 4-3. M. Marner led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 1 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
VGK	1	0	2	1	4
DET	3	0	0	0	3

Period scoring

VGK won 2 · DET won 1

VGK

DET

Play-by-play · 284 plays

period

event

player

OT·2:11
Game End
VGK 4·DET 3
OT·2:11
End of OT
VGK 4·DET 3
OT·2:11
Tomas Hertl Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (45), Rasmus Andersson (25)
· ·
VGK 4·DET 3
OT·1:52
Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Tomas Hertl
·
VGK 3·DET 3
OT·1:52
Simon Edvinsson Slashing against Braeden Bowman
·
VGK 3·DET 3
OT·1:49
Braeden Bowman Backhand Wide Right
·
VGK 3·DET 3
OT·1:36
Jack Eichel Snap Shot Wide Left
·
VGK 3·DET 3
OT·1:16
Moritz Seider Snap Shot saved by Adin Hill
·
VGK 3·DET 3
OT·1:08
Pavel Dorofeyev Backhand saved by Cam Talbot
·
VGK 3·DET 3
OT·0:40
Jack Eichel shot blocked by Andrew Copp
·
VGK 3·DET 3
OT·0:00
Andrew Copp faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
VGK 3·DET 3
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
VGK 3·DET 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
VGK 3·DET 3
3rd·19:54
Andrew Copp faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
VGK 3·DET 3
3rd·19:54
Off-side
VGK 3·DET 3
3rd·19:41
Andrew Copp faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
VGK 3·DET 3
3rd·19:41
On-Ice Official
VGK 3·DET 3
3rd·19:40
Mason Appleton Backhand Hit Right Post
·
VGK 3·DET 3
3rd·19:28
Marco Kasper faceoff won against Colton Sissons
·
VGK 3·DET 3
3rd·19:28
High Stick
VGK 3·DET 3
3rd·19:19
Patrick Kane shot blocked by Rasmus Andersson
·
VGK 3·DET 3
3rd·19:12
Alex DeBrincat Batted Above Crossbar
·
VGK 3·DET 3
3rd·19:11
Alex DeBrincat shot blocked by Rasmus Andersson
·
VGK 3·DET 3
3rd·19:10
Andrew Copp Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill
·
VGK 3·DET 3
3rd·19:09
Andrew Copp Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill
·
VGK 3·DET 3
3rd·19:07
Alex DeBrincat Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill
·
VGK 3·DET 3
3rd·18:34
Moritz Seider Snap Shot saved by Adin Hill
·
VGK 3·DET 3
3rd·18:17
Andrew Copp faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
VGK 3·DET 3
3rd·18:17
Puck in Crowd
VGK 3·DET 3
3rd·18:08
Alex DeBrincat Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill
·
VGK 3·DET 3

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 6.5·VGK +114/DET -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights went into Detroit Red Wings and beat them, 4–3 in overtime.

VGK +1.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.3%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
62.3%
P(DET win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
62.3%
P(DET win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
62.3%
P(DET win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-135

Close price

-135

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at DET?: The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Vegas Golden KnightsDetroit Red Wings

Elsewhere in the NHL