Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at VAN?

The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2CAR

CAR

39-16-6

VAN

18-36-7

NHLWed, Mar 4FinalSeriesCAR wins series 2-0VegasCAR -340

CAR · top performer

Nikolaj Ehlers

LW · #27

3Points

—

SOG

VAN · top performer

Filip Hronek

D · #17

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	1	1	0	3	0	1	2	19:15
J. BlakeRW · #53	0	1	0	3	0	0	2	14:36
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	10:18
N. EhlersLW · #27	3	0	2	3	0	0	0	16:06
T. HallLW · #71	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	13:48
S. JarvisC · #24	0	2	0	2	0	0	0	19:21
J. KotkaniemiC · #82	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	10:29
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	15:06
E. RobinsonLW · #50	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	11:09
J. StaalC · #11	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	16:53
L. StankovenC · #22	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	14:20
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	1	1	0	2	4	0	0	18:07

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	1	0	1	1	1	2	19:43
S. GostisbehereD · #4	0	1	0	2	0	2	0	14:13
K. MillerD · #19	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	23:04
A. NikishinD · #21	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	15:46
J. SlavinD · #74	0	0	1	3	0	2	0	22:33
S. WalkerD · #26	1	1	1	2	1	3	2	20:19

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BussiG · #32	22	4	18	.818	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BluegerC · #53	0	0	-1	1	3	1	2	15:50
B. BoeserRW · #6	1	0	-1	3	7	1	0	19:29
J. DeBruskLW · #74	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	16:57
C. GarlandRW · #8	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	14:45
N. HoglanderLW · #21	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:39
D. KampfC · #64	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	13:53
L. KarlssonC · #94	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	12:31
D. O'ConnorLW · #18	0	1	0	2	2	2	0	16:57
L. OhgrenLW · #92	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	12:30
E. PetterssonC · #40	0	2	0	2	0	2	2	16:56
M. RossiC · #93	1	1	-1	1	2	1	0	16:14
M. SassonC · #63	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	11:48

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BuiumD · #24	0	0	-1	2	1	2	0	16:10
F. HronekD · #17	1	2	2	2	4	1	0	26:43
V. ManciniD · #90	0	0	-3	0	1	3	0	13:06
M. PetterssonD · #29	0	0	-1	3	0	2	0	23:11
Elias N. PetterssonD · #25	0	0	0	4	2	0	2	18:31
T. WillanderD · #5	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	18:51

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. TolopiloG · #60	10	1	9	.900	27:17
K. LankinenG · #32	22	4	18	.818	31:53

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

VAN

Home

Shots

66.7

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

CAR wins series 2-0

Nov 15

VAN3@

CAR4

Mar 5

CAR6@

VAN4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CAR-34077%

VAN+27027%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 16 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat VAN 6-4. N. Ehlers led the way — 3 G · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CAR	1	4	1	6
VAN	2	1	1	4

Period scoring

CAR won 1 · VAN won 1

CAR

VAN

Play-by-play · 304 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CAR 6·VAN 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CAR 6·VAN 4
3rd·19:46
Jesperi Kotkaniemi faceoff won against David Kampf
·
CAR 6·VAN 4
3rd·19:46
Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (38), Andrei Svechnikov (31)
· ·
CAR 6·VAN 4
3rd·19:36
Filip Hronek Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
CAR 5·VAN 4
3rd·19:34
Elias Pettersson faceoff won against Sebastian Aho
· ·
CAR 5·VAN 4
3rd·19:34
Icing
CAR 5·VAN 4
3rd·19:26
Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Elias Pettersson
· ·
CAR 5·VAN 4
3rd·19:26
Icing
CAR 5·VAN 4
3rd·19:09
Drew O'Connor Slap Shot Wide Right
·
CAR 5·VAN 4
3rd·18:54
Drew O'Connor Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
CAR 5·VAN 4
3rd·18:14
Conor Garland Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
CAR 5·VAN 4
3rd·18:03
Giveaway by Sebastian Aho
CAR 5·VAN 4
3rd·17:47
Jordan Staal faceoff won against David Kampf
·
CAR 5·VAN 4
3rd·17:47
TV Timeout
CAR 5·VAN 4
3rd·17:47
Teddy Blueger Boarding against Andrei Svechnikov
·
CAR 5·VAN 4
3rd·17:11
Jaccob Slavin Wrist Shot saved by Nikita Tolopilo
·
CAR 5·VAN 4
3rd·17:09
Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Drew O'Connor
·
CAR 5·VAN 4
3rd·17:09
Icing
CAR 5·VAN 4
3rd·16:55
David Kampf shot blocked by Shayne Gostisbehere
·
CAR 5·VAN 4
3rd·16:51
Jordan Staal hit Marcus Pettersson
· ·
CAR 5·VAN 4
3rd·16:47
Drew O'Connor hit Nikolaj Ehlers
·
CAR 5·VAN 4
3rd·15:55
Elias Pettersson Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
· ·
CAR 5·VAN 4
3rd·15:27
Elias Pettersson Wrist Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
· ·
CAR 5·VAN 4
3rd·15:20
Elias Pettersson hit Jalen Chatfield
· ·
CAR 5·VAN 4
3rd·15:10
Marco Rossi hit Sebastian Aho
·
CAR 5·VAN 4
3rd·15:02
Giveaway by Liam Ohgren
CAR 5·VAN 4
3rd·14:07
Marcus Pettersson shot blocked by Logan Stankoven
· ·
CAR 5·VAN 4
3rd·14:04
Brock Boeser Snap Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
CAR 5·VAN 4
3rd·13:20
Alexander Nikishin shot blocked by Drew O'Connor
·
CAR 5·VAN 4

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·CAR -340/VAN +270

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes went into Vancouver Canucks and beat them, 6–4.

CAR -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

37.5%

ensemble · CAR favored

Elo Static
37.5%
P(VAN win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
37.5%
P(VAN win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
37.5%
P(VAN win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+270

Close price

+270

Open no-vig

25.9%

Close no-vig

25.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at VAN?: The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Carolina HurricanesVancouver Canucks

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