Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYI at ANA?

The model favors ANA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4ANA

NYI

35-22-5

ANA

34-24-3

NHLWed, Mar 4FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasNYI -125

NYI · top performer

Anders Lee

LW · #27

1Points

—

SOG

ANA · top performer

Cutter Gauthier

LW · #61

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarzalC · #13	0	0	-2	2	0	0	2	20:58
C. CizikasC · #53	0	0	0	2	1	2	2	14:33
J. DrouinLW · #29	0	1	-1	3	1	1	0	13:25
M. GatcombC · #16	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	11:11
E. HeinemanLW · #51	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	15:03
S. HolmstromRW · #10	0	0	-2	4	0	0	0	19:28
B. HorvatC · #14	0	0	-1	5	3	1	0	22:33
A. LeeLW · #27	1	0	-2	4	0	1	0	15:02
K. MacLeanC · #32	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	10:33
J. PageauC · #44	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	14:18
O. PalatLW · #81	0	0	-2	2	2	1	0	16:08
C. RitchieC · #64	0	0	-2	1	0	1	0	15:41

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BoqvistD · #34	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	13:40
T. DeAngeloD · #77	0	1	-1	5	1	4	2	18:51
S. MayfieldD · #24	0	0	-2	2	1	0	0	15:16
A. PelechD · #3	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	22:11
M. SchaeferD · #48	0	0	-2	5	0	2	2	24:13
C. SoucyD · #4	0	0	-1	1	2	1	0	14:48

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. RittichG · #33	25	4	21	.840	55:26

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CarlssonC · #91	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	17:08
C. GauthierLW · #61	2	0	1	4	1	1	2	18:02
R. JohnstonLW · #44	0	0	1	0	7	0	0	11:10
A. KillornLW · #17	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	14:53
C. KreiderLW · #20	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	16:38
M. McTavishC · #23	0	1	2	2	1	0	4	14:06
R. PoehlingC · #25	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	15:33
B. SenneckeRW · #45	1	1	1	3	5	1	0	15:06
R. StromeC · #16	0	1	2	0	0	1	0	15:01
F. VatranoRW · #77	1	0	2	2	0	0	0	13:50
J. VielLW · #28	0	0	0	0	7	1	0	9:55
T. WasheC · #42	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	12:34

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. GudasD · #7	0	0	1	2	1	4	0	19:56
J. LaCombeD · #2	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	19:22
P. MintyukovD · #98	0	0	1	1	0	2	2	20:06
I. MooreD · #74	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	16:10
J. TroubaD · #65	0	1	2	3	2	1	0	23:19
O. ZellwegerD · #51	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	20:36

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. HussoG · #33	43	1	42	.977	59:04

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

NYI

Away

Stat

ANA

Home

Shots

25.0

PCT

25.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 12

ANA2@

NYI5

Mar 5

NYI1@

ANA5today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYI -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYI-12556%

ANA+10549%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗

Line movement · 17 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ANA beat NYI 5-1. C. Gauthier led the way — 2 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NYI	1	0	0	1
ANA	3	0	2	5

Period scoring

NYI won 0 · ANA won 2

NYI

ANA

Play-by-play · 351 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NYI 1·ANA 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NYI 1·ANA 5
3rd·19:47
Radko Gudas shot blocked by Kyle MacLean
·
NYI 1·ANA 5
3rd·19:20
Ryan Poehling Deflected saved by David Rittich
·
NYI 1·ANA 5
3rd·19:16
Ryan Strome faceoff won against Casey Cizikas
·
NYI 1·ANA 5
3rd·19:16
Goalie Stopped
NYI 1·ANA 5
3rd·19:13
Cutter Gauthier Wrist Shot saved by David Rittich
·
NYI 1·ANA 5
3rd·19:07
Scott Mayfield hit Mason McTavish
·
NYI 1·ANA 5
3rd·18:56
Mason McTavish faceoff won against Calum Ritchie
·
NYI 1·ANA 5
3rd·18:56
Goalie Stopped
NYI 1·ANA 5
3rd·18:52
Jonathan Drouin Wrist Shot saved by Ville Husso
·
NYI 1·ANA 5
3rd·18:35
Mason McTavish faceoff won against Calum Ritchie
·
NYI 1·ANA 5
3rd·18:35
Goalie Stopped
NYI 1·ANA 5
3rd·18:33
Kyle MacLean Backhand Wide Left
·
NYI 1·ANA 5
3rd·18:32
Kyle MacLean Tip-In Wide Right
·
NYI 1·ANA 5
3rd·18:03
Alex Killorn Tip-In saved by David Rittich
·
NYI 1·ANA 5
3rd·17:43
Ross Johnston Wrap-around Wide Right
·
NYI 1·ANA 5
3rd·17:39
Olen Zellweger Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
NYI 1·ANA 5
3rd·17:26
Takeaway by Jackson LaCombe
NYI 1·ANA 5
3rd·17:08
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Cutter Gauthier
·
NYI 1·ANA 5
3rd·17:08
Goalie Stopped
NYI 1·ANA 5
3rd·17:06
Jacob Trouba Wrist Shot saved by David Rittich
·
NYI 1·ANA 5
3rd·17:03
Tim Washe faceoff won against Calum Ritchie
·
NYI 1·ANA 5
3rd·17:03
Icing
NYI 1·ANA 5
3rd·16:44
Leo Carlsson faceoff won against Calum Ritchie
·
NYI 1·ANA 5
3rd·16:44
Off-side
NYI 1·ANA 5
3rd·16:38
Cutter Gauthier hit Adam Boqvist
·
NYI 1·ANA 5
3rd·16:05
Casey Cizikas shot blocked by Radko Gudas
·
NYI 1·ANA 5
3rd·15:59
Casey Cizikas Wrist Shot saved by Ville Husso
·
NYI 1·ANA 5
3rd·15:49
Mason McTavish faceoff won against Casey Cizikas
·
NYI 1·ANA 5

Betting line

NYI -1.5·O/U 6.5·NYI -125/ANA +105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

naheim Ducks held off New York Islanders, 5–1.

ANA +1.5 cashed (NYI lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.2%

ensemble · ANA favored

Elo Static
54.2%
P(ANA win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
54.2%
P(ANA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
54.2%
P(ANA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+105

Close price

+105

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYI at ANA?: The model favors ANA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

New York IslandersAnaheim Ducks

Elsewhere in the NHL