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FINAL+4ANA
NYI

NYI

35-22-5

15
ANA

ANA

34-24-3

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLWed, Mar 4FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasNYI -125

Recap · NHL

naheim Ducks held off New York Islanders, 5–1.

ANA +1.5 cashed (NYI lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYI · top performer

NYI
Jonathan Drouin

Jonathan Drouin

LW · #29

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

ANA · top performer

ANA
Cutter Gauthier

Cutter Gauthier

LW · #61

2Points

2

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · New York Islanders at Anaheim Ducks · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
1
5
NYI35-22-5ANA34-24-3
NYI

NYI

35-22-5

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
ANA

ANA

34-24-3

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

8

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 12ANAANA2@NYINYI5
Mar 5NYINYI1@ANAANA5today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYI -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYINYI-12556%
ANAANA+10549%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ANA beat NYI 5-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
NYI1001
ANA3025

Period scoring

NYI won 0 · ANA won 2

1
3

1

0
0

2

0
2

3

NYI
ANA

Play-by-play · 351 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    NYI 1·ANA 5

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    NYI 1·ANA 5

  3. 3rd·19:47

    Radko Gudas shot blocked by Kyle MacLean

    ·

    NYI 1·ANA 5

  4. 3rd·19:20

    Ryan Poehling Deflected saved by David Rittich

    ·

    NYI 1·ANA 5

  5. 3rd·19:16

    Ryan Strome faceoff won against Casey Cizikas

    ·

    NYI 1·ANA 5

  6. 3rd·19:16

    Goalie Stopped

    NYI 1·ANA 5

  7. 3rd·19:13

    Cutter Gauthier Wrist Shot saved by David Rittich

    ·

    NYI 1·ANA 5

  8. 3rd·19:07

    Scott Mayfield hit Mason McTavish

    ·

    NYI 1·ANA 5

  9. 3rd·18:56

    Mason McTavish faceoff won against Calum Ritchie

    ·

    NYI 1·ANA 5

  10. 3rd·18:56

    Goalie Stopped

    NYI 1·ANA 5

  11. 3rd·18:52

    Jonathan Drouin Wrist Shot saved by Ville Husso

    ·

    NYI 1·ANA 5

  12. 3rd·18:35

    Mason McTavish faceoff won against Calum Ritchie

    ·

    NYI 1·ANA 5

  13. 3rd·18:35

    Goalie Stopped

    NYI 1·ANA 5

  14. 3rd·18:33

    Kyle MacLean Backhand Wide Left

    ·

    NYI 1·ANA 5

  15. 3rd·18:32

    Kyle MacLean Tip-In Wide Right

    ·

    NYI 1·ANA 5

  16. 3rd·18:03

    Alex Killorn Tip-In saved by David Rittich

    ·

    NYI 1·ANA 5

  17. 3rd·17:43

    Ross Johnston Wrap-around Wide Right

    ·

    NYI 1·ANA 5

  18. 3rd·17:39

    Olen Zellweger Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    NYI 1·ANA 5

  19. 3rd·17:26

    Takeaway by Jackson LaCombe

    NYI 1·ANA 5

  20. 3rd·17:08

    Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Cutter Gauthier

    ·

    NYI 1·ANA 5

  21. 3rd·17:08

    Goalie Stopped

    NYI 1·ANA 5

  22. 3rd·17:06

    Jacob Trouba Wrist Shot saved by David Rittich

    ·

    NYI 1·ANA 5

  23. 3rd·17:03

    Tim Washe faceoff won against Calum Ritchie

    ·

    NYI 1·ANA 5

  24. 3rd·17:03

    Icing

    NYI 1·ANA 5

  25. 3rd·16:44

    Leo Carlsson faceoff won against Calum Ritchie

    ·

    NYI 1·ANA 5

  26. 3rd·16:44

    Off-side

    NYI 1·ANA 5

  27. 3rd·16:38

    Cutter Gauthier hit Adam Boqvist

    ·

    NYI 1·ANA 5

  28. 3rd·16:05

    Casey Cizikas shot blocked by Radko Gudas

    ·

    NYI 1·ANA 5

  29. 3rd·15:59

    Casey Cizikas Wrist Shot saved by Ville Husso

    ·

    NYI 1·ANA 5

  30. 3rd·15:49

    Mason McTavish faceoff won against Casey Cizikas

    ·

    NYI 1·ANA 5

Team stats

NYI

Away

Stat

ANA

Home

43

Shots

26

25.0

PCT

25.0

8

PIM

8

30

Faceoffs W

29

16

Blocks

13

18

Giveaways

16

7

Takeaways

6

Betting line

NYI -1.5·O/U 6.5·NYI -125/ANA +105

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Matthew SchaeferNYI · D
    BURSTS26999+
  • Beckett SenneckeANA · RW
    SHOT MPH96.199+
  • Mathew BarzalNYI · C
    DIST MI274.399
  • Emil HeinemanNYI · LW
    SHOT MPH97.399
  • Ryan PoehlingANA · C
    SKATE MPH23.498

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · ANA favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ANA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ANA win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ANA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+105

Close price

+105

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR