Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at MIN?

The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2STL

STL

22-29-9

MIN

35-16-10

NHLSun, Mar 1FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasMIN -230

STL · top performer

Robert Thomas

C · #18

2Points

—

SOG

MIN · top performer

Kirill Kaprizov

LW · #97

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BuchnevichLW · #89	1	1	2	2	1	0	0	17:07
D. DvorskyRW · #54	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	15:21
J. FinleyC · #37	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	9:38
D. HollowayLW · #81	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	17:31
J. KyrouRW · #25	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	16:17
J. NeighboursLW · #63	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	13:34
B. SchennC · #10	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	16:52
J. SnuggerudRW · #21	0	1	2	2	2	0	0	16:41
O. SundqvistC · #70	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:08
P. SuterC · #22	0	0	1	1	1	2	0	16:30
R. ThomasC · #18	1	1	3	3	0	1	2	17:08
A. ToropchenkoRW · #13	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:52

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BrobergD · #6	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	25:57
J. FaulkD · #72	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	25:28
C. FowlerD · #17	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	18:42
M. KesselD · #51	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	14:31
L. MaillouxD · #23	1	0	2	3	3	2	0	20:32
T. TuckerD · #75	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:24

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. HoferG · #30	23	1	22	.957	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BoldyLW · #12	0	1	-1	1	1	1	0	20:46
J. Eriksson EkC · #14	0	0	-1	3	3	1	0	19:52
R. HartmanRW · #38	0	0	-1	1	1	2	0	16:38
V. HinostrozaC · #18	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	9:19
M. JohanssonLW · #90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:05
K. KaprizovLW · #97	1	0	-1	5	0	0	0	25:22
T. PitlickC · #19	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	7:04
N. SturmC · #78	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	9:05
V. TarasenkoRW · #91	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	14:08
Y. TreninC · #13	0	0	-2	1	3	0	0	15:00
D. YurovRW · #22	0	0	-2	2	1	0	0	13:54
M. ZuccarelloRW · #36	0	0	-1	3	0	2	0	19:20

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BogosianD · #24	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	14:00
B. FaberD · #7	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	23:45
Q. HughesD · #43	0	1	-2	2	0	0	0	27:57
D. HuntD · #48	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	13:26
J. MiddletonD · #5	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	18:39
J. SpurgeonD · #46	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	17:07

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. GustavssonG · #32	23	2	21	.913	58:33

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Oct 10

MIN5@

STL0

Mar 1

STL3@

MIN1today

Apr 14

MIN3@

STL6

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

STL+19034%

MIN-23070%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 19 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

STL beat MIN 3-1. R. Thomas led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
STL	0	1	2	3
MIN	0	1	0	1

Period scoring

STL won 1 · MIN won 0

STL

MIN

Play-by-play · 283 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
STL 3·MIN 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
STL 3·MIN 1
3rd·19:35
Vincent Hinostroza faceoff won against Jack Finley
·
STL 3·MIN 1
3rd·19:35
Robert Thomas Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (24)
·
STL 3·MIN 1
3rd·19:28
Ryan Hartman faceoff won against Pius Suter
·
STL 2·MIN 1
3rd·19:28
Goalie Stopped
STL 2·MIN 1
3rd·19:26
Vladimir Tarasenko Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
STL 2·MIN 1
3rd·18:53
Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Jack Finley
·
STL 2·MIN 1
3rd·18:53
Icing
STL 2·MIN 1
3rd·18:47
Joel Hofer Wrist Shot Wide Left
STL 2·MIN 1
3rd·18:12
Robert Thomas faceoff won against Matt Boldy
·
STL 2·MIN 1
3rd·18:12
High Stick
STL 2·MIN 1
3rd·18:05
Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Robert Thomas
·
STL 2·MIN 1
3rd·18:05
Icing
STL 2·MIN 1
3rd·17:36
Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Robert Thomas
·
STL 2·MIN 1
3rd·17:36
Puck Frozen - Goalie
STL 2·MIN 1
3rd·17:27
Giveaway by Quinn Hughes
STL 2·MIN 1
3rd·17:23
Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Pius Suter
·
STL 2·MIN 1
3rd·17:23
Icing
STL 2·MIN 1
3rd·17:04
Takeaway by Joel Eriksson Ek
STL 2·MIN 1
3rd·16:21
Danila Yurov faceoff won against Jack Finley
·
STL 2·MIN 1
3rd·16:21
Pavel Buchnevich Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (15)
·
STL 2·MIN 1
3rd·15:52
Justin Faulk shot blocked by Jared Spurgeon
·
STL 1·MIN 1
3rd·15:46
Jordan Kyrou shot blocked by Mats Zuccarello
·
STL 1·MIN 1
3rd·15:41
Justin Faulk shot blocked by Jake Middleton
·
STL 1·MIN 1
3rd·15:33
Jake Neighbours shot blocked by Jared Spurgeon
·
STL 1·MIN 1
3rd·15:13
Brayden Schenn faceoff won against Ryan Hartman
·
STL 1·MIN 1
3rd·15:13
Goalie Stopped
STL 1·MIN 1
3rd·15:11
Cam Fowler Wrist Shot saved by Filip Gustavsson
·
STL 1·MIN 1
3rd·14:28
Giveaway by Logan Mailloux
STL 1·MIN 1

Betting line

MIN -1.5·O/U 6.5·STL +190/MIN -230

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

t. Louis Blues went into Minnesota Wild and beat them, 3–1.

STL +1.5 cashed (MIN lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

70.3%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
70.3%
P(MIN win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
70.3%
P(MIN win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
70.3%
P(MIN win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-230

Close price

-230

Open no-vig

66.9%

Close no-vig

66.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at MIN?: The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

St. Louis BluesMinnesota Wild

Elsewhere in the NHL