Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WPG at SJ?

The model favors SJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1SJ

WPG

23-26-10

29-25-4

NHLSun, Mar 1FinalSeriesSJ leads series 2-0VegasWPG -120

WPG · top performer

Morgan Barron

C · #36

1Points

—

SOG

SJ · top performer

Will Smith

C · #2

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarronC · #36	1	0	1	2	1	3	0	16:17
K. ConnorLW · #81	0	0	-1	2	0	1	2	23:08
W. DuehrRW · #71	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	8:20
A. IafalloLW · #9	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	14:04
C. KoepkeLW · #45	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	14:09
A. LowryC · #17	0	0	-1	0	4	0	2	15:58
G. NyquistRW · #14	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	9:28
T. PearsonLW · #70	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	10:47
C. PerfettiC · #91	0	0	-1	5	0	0	0	17:34
M. ScheifeleC · #55	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	22:51
J. ToewsC · #19	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	8:42
G. VilardiC · #13	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	19:43

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. DeMeloD · #2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	23:20
H. FleuryD · #24	0	0	-2	0	2	1	0	12:47
E. SalomonssonD · #57	0	0	1	1	2	1	0	18:47
D. SambergD · #54	0	0	1	3	0	5	0	24:12
L. SchennD · #5	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	13:13
L. StanleyD · #64	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	23:50

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HellebuyckG · #37	33	2	31	.939	61:30

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CelebriniC · #71	0	1	0	0	1	2	0	19:58
W. EklundLW · #72	0	1	1	5	0	1	0	15:33
B. GoodrowC · #23	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	10:22
C. GrafRW · #51	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	17:16
P. KurashevC · #96	0	0	0	2	0	1	2	17:07
M. MisaC · #77	1	0	2	2	0	0	0	15:39
Z. OstapchukC · #63	0	0	-1	0	4	0	0	9:33
P. RegendaLW · #84	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	7:46
K. SherwoodLW · #44	0	0	0	3	9	0	2	17:31
W. SmithC · #2	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	18:36
T. ToffoliC · #73	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	13:56
A. WennbergC · #21	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	20:57

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DesharnaisD · #5	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	18:19
S. DickinsonD · #6	0	1	1	4	0	1	0	18:36
M. FerraroD · #38	0	0	-1	2	4	0	0	21:16
J. KlingbergD · #3	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	19:41
S. MukhamadullinD · #85	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	16:18
D. OrlovD · #9	0	0	1	1	2	1	0	20:36

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. NedeljkovicG · #33	28	1	27	.964	61:40

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

WPG

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

SJ leads series 2-0

Nov 8

WPG1@

SJ2

Mar 1

WPG1@

SJ2today

Apr 17

SJ6@

WPG1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WPG -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WPG-12055%

SJ+10050%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WPG -1.5↗SpreadBet WPG -1.5↗

Line movement · 24 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SJ beat WPG 2-1. W. Smith led the way — 1 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
WPG	1	0	0	0	1
SJ	0	0	1	1	2

Period scoring

WPG won 1 · SJ won 2

WPG

Play-by-play · 293 plays

period

event

player

OT·1:40
Game End
WPG 1·SJ 2
OT·1:40
End of OT
WPG 1·SJ 2
OT·1:40
Michael Misa Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (26), Sam Dickinson (9)
· ·
WPG 1·SJ 2
OT·0:38
Kyle Connor Snap Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
WPG 1·SJ 1
OT·0:00
Mark Scheifele faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
WPG 1·SJ 1
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
WPG 1·SJ 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
WPG 1·SJ 1
3rd·19:56
Kiefer Sherwood Tip-In High and Wide Left
·
WPG 1·SJ 1
3rd·19:34
Cole Perfetti Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
WPG 1·SJ 1
3rd·19:08
Luke Schenn hit Alexander Wennberg
·
WPG 1·SJ 1
3rd·18:37
Gabriel Vilardi Snap Shot Wide Right
·
WPG 1·SJ 1
3rd·18:05
Giveaway by Macklin Celebrini
WPG 1·SJ 1
3rd·18:04
Giveaway by Kyle Connor
WPG 1·SJ 1
3rd·17:55
Dmitry Orlov Slap Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
WPG 1·SJ 1
3rd·17:36
Morgan Barron faceoff won against Macklin Celebrini
·
WPG 1·SJ 1
3rd·17:36
Puck in Crowd
WPG 1·SJ 1
3rd·17:25
Tyler Toffoli Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
WPG 1·SJ 1
3rd·16:52
Morgan Barron Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
WPG 1·SJ 1
3rd·16:03
John Klingberg shot blocked by Morgan Barron
·
WPG 1·SJ 1
3rd·15:54
Michael Misa faceoff won against Morgan Barron
·
WPG 1·SJ 1
3rd·15:54
Kyle Connor Tripping against John Klingberg
·
WPG 1·SJ 1
3rd·15:44
Mario Ferraro hit Mark Scheifele
·
WPG 1·SJ 1
3rd·15:34
Takeaway by Haydn Fleury
WPG 1·SJ 1
3rd·14:55
Macklin Celebrini faceoff won against Mark Scheifele
·
WPG 1·SJ 1
3rd·14:55
Goalie Stopped
WPG 1·SJ 1
3rd·14:53
Logan Stanley Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
WPG 1·SJ 1
3rd·14:42
Kiefer Sherwood hit Logan Stanley
·
WPG 1·SJ 1
3rd·14:25
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Adam Lowry
·
WPG 1·SJ 1
3rd·14:25
Icing
WPG 1·SJ 1
3rd·14:19
Adam Lowry faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
WPG 1·SJ 1

Betting line

WPG -1.5·O/U 5.5·WPG -120/SJ +100

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

an Jose Sharks held off Winnipeg Jets, 2–1 in overtime.

SJ +1.5 cashed (WPG lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.0%

ensemble · SJ favored

Elo Static
62.0%
P(SJ win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
62.0%
P(SJ win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
62.0%
P(SJ win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

47.8%

Close no-vig

47.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WPG at SJ?: The model favors SJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Winnipeg JetsSan Jose Sharks

Elsewhere in the NHL