Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at PIT?

The model favors PIT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+5PIT

VGK

28-18-14

PIT

31-15-13

NHLSun, Mar 1FinalSeriesPIT leads series 1-0VegasVGK -155

VGK · top performer

Reilly Smith

RW · #19

0Points

—

SOG

PIT · top performer

Ben Kindel

C · #81

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	15:58
B. BowmanRW · #42	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	16:18
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	17:34
J. EichelC · #9	0	0	-2	0	1	2	0	18:34
T. HertlC · #48	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	18:30
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	-1	0	9	1	0	13:53
M. MarnerRW · #93	0	0	-1	2	0	0	2	18:35
C. ReinhardtLW · #23	0	0	0	0	3	0	7	10:18
B. SaadLW · #20	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	16:28
C. SissonsC · #10	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	13:05
R. SmithRW · #19	0	0	-2	4	0	0	2	14:52
M. StoneRW · #61	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6:06

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	0	-2	1	1	1	0	19:07
N. HanifinD · #15	0	0	-2	1	0	1	0	19:57
K. KorczakD · #6	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	16:02
J. LauzonD · #5	0	0	-1	1	6	2	0	18:11
B. McNabbD · #3	0	0	-1	2	2	3	0	21:09
S. TheodoreD · #27	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	19:55

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. HillG · #33	22	5	17	.773	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. AcciariC · #55	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	16:04
J. BrazeauRW · #16	1	1	3	1	1	2	0	13:01
E. ChinakhovRW · #59	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	14:50
C. DewarC · #19	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	14:07
A. HayesRW · #85	0	0	0	0	1	0	5	13:18
B. KindelC · #81	1	1	2	3	0	2	0	14:23
B. LizotteC · #46	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	14:08
E. MalkinC · #71	0	1	0	3	1	0	0	18:07
A. ManthaRW · #39	0	1	2	2	2	0	0	14:04
T. NovakC · #18	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	15:07
R. RakellRW · #67	1	0	0	2	1	2	0	16:50
B. RustRW · #17	1	1	0	2	2	0	0	17:08

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CliftonD · #75	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	19:32
S. GirardD · #49	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:58
E. KarlssonD · #65	0	2	2	1	1	1	0	21:58
K. LetangD · #58	0	1	1	3	0	0	2	18:40
R. SheaD · #5	0	0	1	1	0	4	0	18:12
P. WotherspoonD · #28	0	0	2	0	3	2	0	18:33

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. SilovsG · #37	22	0	22	1.000	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

PIT leads series 1-0

Mar 1

VGK0@

PIT5today

Mar 13

PIT2@

VGK6

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGK-15561%

PIT+13043%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 22 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PIT beat VGK 5-0. B. Kindel led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
VGK	0	0	0	0
PIT	1	3	1	5

Period scoring

VGK won 0 · PIT won 3

VGK

PIT

Play-by-play · 306 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
VGK 0·PIT 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
VGK 0·PIT 5
3rd·19:46
Parker Wotherspoon hit Cole Reinhardt
·
VGK 0·PIT 5
3rd·19:10
Noel Acciari faceoff won against Colton Sissons
·
VGK 0·PIT 5
3rd·19:10
Puck Frozen - Goalie
VGK 0·PIT 5
3rd·18:45
Jeremy Lauzon hit Justin Brazeau
·
VGK 0·PIT 5
3rd·18:37
Takeaway by Ben Kindel
VGK 0·PIT 5
3rd·18:26
Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Ben Kindel
·
VGK 0·PIT 5
3rd·18:26
Puck in Netting
VGK 0·PIT 5
3rd·18:23
Brandon Saad shot blocked by Ryan Shea
·
VGK 0·PIT 5
3rd·18:21
Jeremy Lauzon shot blocked by Justin Brazeau
·
VGK 0·PIT 5
3rd·18:18
Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Ben Kindel
·
VGK 0·PIT 5
3rd·18:18
Icing
VGK 0·PIT 5
3rd·18:06
Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Ben Kindel
·
VGK 0·PIT 5
3rd·18:06
Puck Frozen - Goalie
VGK 0·PIT 5
3rd·18:01
Giveaway by Ivan Barbashev
VGK 0·PIT 5
3rd·18:00
Giveaway by Connor Dewar
VGK 0·PIT 5
3rd·17:40
Noel Acciari faceoff won against Ivan Barbashev
·
VGK 0·PIT 5
3rd·17:40
Puck in Netting
VGK 0·PIT 5
3rd·17:31
Jack Eichel faceoff won against Noel Acciari
·
VGK 0·PIT 5
3rd·17:31
Goalie Stopped
VGK 0·PIT 5
3rd·17:29
Brayden McNabb Slap Shot saved by Arturs Silovs
·
VGK 0·PIT 5
3rd·17:19
Shea Theodore shot blocked by Connor Clifton
· ·
VGK 0·PIT 5
3rd·17:04
Giveaway by Egor Chinakhov
VGK 0·PIT 5
3rd·16:43
Giveaway by Evgeni Malkin
VGK 0·PIT 5
3rd·16:41
Cole Reinhardt hit Thomas Novak
·
VGK 0·PIT 5
3rd·16:00
Mitch Marner faceoff won against Ben Kindel
·
VGK 0·PIT 5
3rd·16:00
Icing
VGK 0·PIT 5
3rd·15:40
Mitch Marner faceoff won against Thomas Novak
·
VGK 0·PIT 5
3rd·15:40
Goalie Stopped
VGK 0·PIT 5

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 6.5·VGK -155/PIT +130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ittsburgh Penguins held off Vegas Golden Knights, 5–0.

PIT +1.5 cashed (VGK lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.6%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
59.6%
P(PIT win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
59.6%
P(PIT win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
59.6%
P(PIT win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+130

Close price

+130

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in VGK at PIT?: The model favors PIT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Vegas Golden KnightsPittsburgh Penguins

Elsewhere in the NHL