NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1NYI

FLA

30-27-3

NYI

35-21-5

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSun, Mar 1FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasFLA -155

Recap · NHL

ew York Islanders held off Florida Panthers, 5–4.

NYI +1.5 cashed (FLA lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

FLA · top performer

Matthew Tkachuk

LW · #19

3Points

—

SOG

NYI · top performer

Mathew Barzal

C · #13

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

FLA30-27-3

NYI35-21-5

FLA30-27-3NYI35-21-5

FLA

30-27-3

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

NYI

35-21-5

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 7

NYI1@

FLA4

Mar 1

FLA4@

NYI5today

Mar 28

FLA2@

NYI5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

FLA -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

FLA-15561%

NYI+13043%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet FLA -1.5↗SpreadBet FLA -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYI beat FLA 5-4.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
FLA	2	1	1	4
NYI	1	2	2	5

Period scoring

FLA won 1 · NYI won 2

FLA

NYI

Play-by-play · 344 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
FLA 4·NYI 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
FLA 4·NYI 5
3rd·19:57
Matthew Tkachuk Snap Shot Failed Bank Attempt
·
FLA 4·NYI 5
3rd·19:28
Bo Horvat faceoff won against Anton Lundell
·
FLA 4·NYI 5
3rd·19:28
Timeout - Visitor
FLA 4·NYI 5
3rd·19:28
Anders Lee Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Tony DeAngelo (24), Adam Pelech (8)
· ·
FLA 4·NYI 5
3rd·19:16
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Sam Bennett
·
FLA 4·NYI 4
3rd·19:16
Icing
FLA 4·NYI 4
3rd·19:09
Sam Bennett Backhand saved by David Rittich
·
FLA 4·NYI 4
3rd·19:06
Carter Verhaeghe Tip-In Short
·
FLA 4·NYI 4
3rd·19:00
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Sam Bennett
·
FLA 4·NYI 4
3rd·19:00
Goalie Stopped
FLA 4·NYI 4
3rd·18:57
Eetu Luostarinen Deflected saved by David Rittich
·
FLA 4·NYI 4
3rd·18:37
Ryan Pulock hit Eetu Luostarinen
·
FLA 4·NYI 4
3rd·18:23
Casey Cizikas faceoff won against Anton Lundell
·
FLA 4·NYI 4
3rd·18:23
Icing
FLA 4·NYI 4
3rd·18:11
Matthew Tkachuk hit Matthew Schaefer
·
FLA 4·NYI 4
3rd·18:02
Sam Bennett faceoff won against Casey Cizikas
·
FLA 4·NYI 4
3rd·18:02
Sam Reinhart Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (20), Matthew Tkachuk (8)
· ·
FLA 4·NYI 4
3rd·17:48
Sam Bennett shot blocked by Bo Horvat
·
FLA 3·NYI 4
3rd·17:31
Matthew Tkachuk Wrist Shot saved by David Rittich
·
FLA 3·NYI 4
3rd·17:06
Niko Mikkola Snap Shot Wide Left
·
FLA 3·NYI 4
3rd·17:03
Evan Rodrigues Snap Shot Wide Left
·
FLA 3·NYI 4
3rd·16:48
Giveaway by David Rittich
FLA 3·NYI 4
3rd·16:33
Eetu Luostarinen hit Tony DeAngelo
·
FLA 3·NYI 4
3rd·16:26
Gustav Forsling shot blocked by Ondrej Palat
·
FLA 3·NYI 4
3rd·16:24
Evan Rodrigues faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
FLA 3·NYI 4
3rd·16:24
Goalie Stopped
FLA 3·NYI 4
3rd·16:22
Carter Verhaeghe Backhand saved by David Rittich
·
FLA 3·NYI 4
3rd·16:21
Carter Verhaeghe Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
FLA 3·NYI 4

Team stats

FLA

Away

Stat

NYI

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

FLA -1.5·O/U 5.5·FLA -155/NYI +130

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE

Matthew SchaeferNYI · D
BURSTS26999+
Ryan PulockNYI · D
SHOT MPH103.099+
Mathew BarzalNYI · C
DIST MI274.399
Emil HeinemanNYI · LW
SHOT MPH97.399
Gustav ForslingFLA · D
SHOT MPH100.497

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · NYI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYI win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYI win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+130

Close price

+130

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

NYI vs FLA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

138

projections · 123 high confidence

Shots on goal

Bo HorvatNYI
2.9± 0.9high
Sam BennettFLA
2.7± 2.1high
Sam ReinhartFLA
2.7± 1.9high

Goals

Carter VerhaegheFLA
0.4± 0.7high
Cole ReinhardtFLA
0.4± 0.7high
Mackie SamoskevichFLA
0.4± 0.5high

Points

Aleksander BarkovFLA
1.1± 1.1high
Matthew TkachukFLA
1.1± 1.4high
Sam ReinhartFLA
0.9± 0.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands