Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in FLA at NYI?

The model favors NYI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1NYI

FLA

30-27-3

NYI

35-21-5

NHLSun, Mar 1FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasFLA -155

FLA · top performer

Sam Bennett

C · #9

2Points

—

SOG

NYI · top performer

Matthew Schaefer

D · #48

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BennettC · #9	2	0	-1	4	0	0	0	19:58
J. BoqvistC · #70	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	7:44
A.J. GreerLW · #10	0	1	1	1	4	0	0	7:57
A. LundellC · #15	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	17:30
E. LuostarinenC · #27	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	15:24
B. MarchandLW · #63	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	16:14
S. ReinhartC · #13	1	0	-1	4	1	0	0	20:34
E. RodriguesC · #17	0	0	-2	2	0	1	0	17:11
M. SamoskevichRW · #11	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	15:43
M. TkachukLW · #19	0	3	-1	3	1	1	0	19:16
C. VerhaegheC · #23	0	0	-2	3	0	1	0	17:14
S. VilmanisLW · #95	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	7:45

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. EkbladD · #5	0	2	1	1	2	1	0	26:24
G. ForslingD · #42	0	0	-2	3	1	2	0	26:11
D. KulikovD · #7	0	0	-2	1	1	0	0	20:27
N. MikkolaD · #77	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	23:03
J. PetryD · #2	0	0	-1	1	3	2	0	9:50
D. SebrangoD · #6	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	10:29

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BobrovskyG · #72	26	5	21	.808	59:06

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarzalC · #13	0	1	2	5	2	1	0	17:45
C. CizikasC · #53	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	11:55
A. DuclairLW · #11	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	13:22
M. GatcombC · #16	0	0	-1	0	4	1	0	10:45
E. HeinemanLW · #51	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	14:28
S. HolmstromRW · #10	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	16:17
B. HorvatC · #14	1	0	1	3	1	2	0	20:24
A. LeeLW · #27	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	15:00
K. MacLeanC · #32	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:47
J. PageauC · #44	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	16:28
O. PalatLW · #81	0	1	2	2	2	1	0	15:16
C. RitchieC · #64	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	13:20

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. DeAngeloD · #77	0	2	-2	1	0	0	0	21:34
S. MayfieldD · #24	0	0	0	4	4	0	0	17:09
A. PelechD · #3	0	1	-2	0	2	2	0	20:58
R. PulockD · #6	0	1	3	0	1	2	2	22:12
M. SchaeferD · #48	2	1	4	5	0	4	2	23:17
C. SoucyD · #4	1	0	1	1	1	3	0	14:57

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. RittichG · #33	33	4	29	.879	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

FLA

Away

Stat

NYI

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 7

NYI1@

FLA4

Mar 1

FLA4@

NYI5today

Mar 28

FLA2@

NYI5

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

FLA -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

FLA-15561%

NYI+13043%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet FLA -1.5↗SpreadBet FLA -1.5↗

Line movement · 27 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYI beat FLA 5-4. M. Schaefer led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
FLA	2	1	1	4
NYI	1	2	2	5

Period scoring

FLA won 1 · NYI won 2

FLA

NYI

Play-by-play · 344 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
FLA 4·NYI 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
FLA 4·NYI 5
3rd·19:57
Matthew Tkachuk Snap Shot Failed Bank Attempt
·
FLA 4·NYI 5
3rd·19:28
Bo Horvat faceoff won against Anton Lundell
·
FLA 4·NYI 5
3rd·19:28
Timeout - Visitor
FLA 4·NYI 5
3rd·19:28
Anders Lee Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Tony DeAngelo (24), Adam Pelech (8)
· ·
FLA 4·NYI 5
3rd·19:16
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Sam Bennett
·
FLA 4·NYI 4
3rd·19:16
Icing
FLA 4·NYI 4
3rd·19:09
Sam Bennett Backhand saved by David Rittich
·
FLA 4·NYI 4
3rd·19:06
Carter Verhaeghe Tip-In Short
·
FLA 4·NYI 4
3rd·19:00
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Sam Bennett
·
FLA 4·NYI 4
3rd·19:00
Goalie Stopped
FLA 4·NYI 4
3rd·18:57
Eetu Luostarinen Deflected saved by David Rittich
·
FLA 4·NYI 4
3rd·18:37
Ryan Pulock hit Eetu Luostarinen
·
FLA 4·NYI 4
3rd·18:23
Casey Cizikas faceoff won against Anton Lundell
·
FLA 4·NYI 4
3rd·18:23
Icing
FLA 4·NYI 4
3rd·18:11
Matthew Tkachuk hit Matthew Schaefer
·
FLA 4·NYI 4
3rd·18:02
Sam Bennett faceoff won against Casey Cizikas
·
FLA 4·NYI 4
3rd·18:02
Sam Reinhart Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (20), Matthew Tkachuk (8)
· ·
FLA 4·NYI 4
3rd·17:48
Sam Bennett shot blocked by Bo Horvat
·
FLA 3·NYI 4
3rd·17:31
Matthew Tkachuk Wrist Shot saved by David Rittich
·
FLA 3·NYI 4
3rd·17:06
Niko Mikkola Snap Shot Wide Left
·
FLA 3·NYI 4
3rd·17:03
Evan Rodrigues Snap Shot Wide Left
·
FLA 3·NYI 4
3rd·16:48
Giveaway by David Rittich
FLA 3·NYI 4
3rd·16:33
Eetu Luostarinen hit Tony DeAngelo
·
FLA 3·NYI 4
3rd·16:26
Gustav Forsling shot blocked by Ondrej Palat
·
FLA 3·NYI 4
3rd·16:24
Evan Rodrigues faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
FLA 3·NYI 4
3rd·16:24
Goalie Stopped
FLA 3·NYI 4
3rd·16:22
Carter Verhaeghe Backhand saved by David Rittich
·
FLA 3·NYI 4
3rd·16:21
Carter Verhaeghe Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
FLA 3·NYI 4

Betting line

FLA -1.5·O/U 5.5·FLA -155/NYI +130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ew York Islanders held off Florida Panthers, 5–4.

NYI +1.5 cashed (FLA lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.1%

ensemble · NYI favored

Elo Static
61.1%
P(NYI win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
61.1%
P(NYI win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
61.1%
P(NYI win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+130

Close price

+130

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in FLA at NYI?: The model favors NYI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Florida PanthersNew York Islanders

Elsewhere in the NHL