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FINAL+1ANA
ANA

ANA

28-21-3

43
CGY

CGY

21-25-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSun, Jan 25FinalSeriesANA leads series 1-0VegasCGY -108

Recap · NHL

naheim Ducks went into Calgary Flames and beat them, 4–3 in overtime.

ANA +1.5 cashed (CGY lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ANA · top performer

ANA
Beckett Sennecke

Beckett Sennecke

RW · #45

3Points

3

G

0

A

—

SOG

CGY · top performer

CGY
Matt Coronato

Matt Coronato

RW · #27

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Anaheim Ducks at Calgary Flames · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
4
3
ANA28-21-3CGY21-25-6
ANA

ANA

28-21-3

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
CGY

CGY

21-25-6

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

PIM

4

Season series

ANA leads series 1-0

Jan 26ANAANA4@CGYCGY3today
Mar 2CGYCGY2@ANAANA3
Mar 27ANAANA3@CGYCGY2
Apr 5CGYCGY5@ANAANA3

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CGY -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ANAANA-11253%
CGYCGY-10852%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CGY -1.5↗SpreadBet CGY -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ANA beat CGY 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
ANA02114
CGY20103

Period scoring

ANA won 2 · CGY won 1

0
2

1

2
0

2

1
1

3

1
0

OT

ANA
CGY

Play-by-play · 332 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·2:54

    Game End

    ANA 4·CGY 3

  2. OT·2:54

    End of OT

    ANA 4·CGY 3

  3. OT·2:54

    Beckett Sennecke Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (27)

    ·

    ANA 4·CGY 3

  4. OT·2:44

    Yegor Sharangovich Deflected Above Crossbar

    ·

    ANA 3·CGY 3

  5. OT·2:29

    Matt Coronato Wrist Shot saved by Lukas Dostal

    ·

    ANA 3·CGY 3

  6. OT·1:57

    Olen Zellweger shot blocked by Zach Whitecloud

    ·

    ANA 3·CGY 3

  7. OT·1:51

    Cutter Gauthier faceoff won against Morgan Frost

    ·

    ANA 3·CGY 3

  8. OT·1:51

    Puck in Netting

    ANA 3·CGY 3

  9. OT·1:48

    Chris Kreider Tip-In saved by Dustin Wolf

    ·

    ANA 3·CGY 3

  10. OT·1:28

    Alex Killorn Wrist Shot saved by Dustin Wolf

    ·

    ANA 3·CGY 3

  11. OT·0:31

    Yegor Sharangovich Wrist Shot High and Wide Left

    ·

    ANA 3·CGY 3

  12. OT·0:26

    Giveaway by Mikael Granlund

    ANA 3·CGY 3

  13. OT·0:19

    Mikael Granlund Wrist Shot saved by Dustin Wolf

    ·

    ANA 3·CGY 3

  14. OT·0:00

    Mikael Granlund faceoff won against Mikael Backlund

    ·

    ANA 3·CGY 3

  15. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    ANA 3·CGY 3

  16. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    ANA 3·CGY 3

  17. 3rd·19:42

    Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Alex Killorn

    ·

    ANA 3·CGY 3

  18. 3rd·19:42

    Goalie Stopped

    ANA 3·CGY 3

  19. 3rd·19:41

    Jackson LaCombe Slap Shot saved by Dustin Wolf

    ·

    ANA 3·CGY 3

  20. 3rd·19:38

    Takeaway by Jansen Harkins

    ANA 3·CGY 3

  21. 3rd·19:01

    Morgan Frost Wrist Shot saved by Lukas Dostal

    ·

    ANA 3·CGY 3

  22. 3rd·18:48

    Alex Killorn Wrist Shot saved by Dustin Wolf

    ·

    ANA 3·CGY 3

  23. 3rd·18:42

    Martin Pospisil hit Mikael Granlund

    ·

    ANA 3·CGY 3

  24. 3rd·18:38

    Giveaway by Alex Killorn

    ANA 3·CGY 3

  25. 3rd·18:18

    Jeffrey Viel Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    ANA 3·CGY 3

  26. 3rd·18:01

    Cutter Gauthier Slap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    ANA 3·CGY 3

  27. 3rd·17:55

    Ryan Poehling faceoff won against Mikael Backlund

    ·

    ANA 3·CGY 3

  28. 3rd·17:55

    Icing

    ANA 3·CGY 3

  29. 3rd·17:43

    Mikael Granlund shot blocked by Kevin Bahl

    ·

    ANA 3·CGY 3

  30. 3rd·17:38

    Zach Whitecloud hit Beckett Sennecke

    ·

    ANA 3·CGY 3

Team stats

ANA

Away

Stat

CGY

Home

21

Shots

35

0.0

PCT

100.0

2

PIM

4

23

Faceoffs W

32

16

Blocks

18

17

Giveaways

20

3

Takeaways

3

Betting line

CGY -1.5·O/U 5.5·ANA -112/CGY -108

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Beckett SenneckeANA · RW
    SHOT MPH96.199+
  • Ryan PoehlingANA · C
    SKATE MPH23.498
  • Yan KuznetsovCGY · D
    SHOT MPH100.297
  • Mikael BacklundCGY · C
    SHOT MPH93.594
  • Jackson LaCombeANA · D
    DIST MI47.993

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · CGY favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CGY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CGY win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CGY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-108

Close price

-108

Open no-vig

49.6%

Close no-vig

49.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR