NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1TOR

TOR

24-16-8

WPG

19-22-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Jan 17FinalSeriesTOR wins series 2-0VegasWPG -148

Recap · NHL

oronto Maple Leafs went into Winnipeg Jets and beat them, 4–3 in overtime.

TOR +1.5 cashed (WPG lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

Max Domi

C · #11

2Points

—

SOG

WPG · top performer

Vladislav Namestnikov

C · #7

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

TOR24-16-8

WPG19-22-6

TOR24-16-8WPG19-22-6

TOR

24-16-8

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

WPG

19-22-6

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

TOR wins series 2-0

Jan 2

WPG5@

TOR6

Jan 18

TOR4@

WPG3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WPG -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+12445%

WPG-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WPG -1.5↗SpreadBet WPG -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat WPG 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
TOR	0	1	2	1	4
WPG	0	2	1	0	3

Period scoring

TOR won 2 · WPG won 1

TOR

WPG

Play-by-play · 307 plays

period

event

player

OT·3:08
Game End
TOR 4·WPG 3
OT·3:08
End of OT
TOR 4·WPG 3
OT·3:08
Max Domi Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (16), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (23)
· ·
TOR 4·WPG 3
OT·2:13
Nicholas Robertson shot blocked by Adam Lowry
·
TOR 3·WPG 3
OT·1:50
Adam Lowry Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
TOR 3·WPG 3
OT·1:07
Matias Maccelli Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
TOR 3·WPG 3
OT·0:47
Auston Matthews shot blocked by Mark Scheifele
·
TOR 3·WPG 3
OT·0:46
Max Domi Slap Shot Wide Left
·
TOR 3·WPG 3
OT·0:41
Auston Matthews Backhand Short
·
TOR 3·WPG 3
OT·0:40
Auston Matthews Tip-In saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
TOR 3·WPG 3
OT·0:00
John Tavares faceoff won against Mark Scheifele
·
TOR 3·WPG 3
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
TOR 3·WPG 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TOR 3·WPG 3
3rd·19:50
Max Domi Slap Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
TOR 3·WPG 3
3rd·19:46
John Tavares faceoff won against Jonathan Toews
·
TOR 3·WPG 3
3rd·19:46
Goalie Stopped
TOR 3·WPG 3
3rd·19:45
Auston Matthews Deflected saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
TOR 3·WPG 3
3rd·19:44
Max Domi Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
TOR 3·WPG 3
3rd·18:41
Brandon Carlo Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
TOR 3·WPG 3
3rd·18:21
Nicolas Roy shot blocked by Josh Morrissey
·
TOR 3·WPG 3
3rd·18:10
Gabriel Vilardi Wrist Shot saved by Dennis Hildeby
·
TOR 3·WPG 3
3rd·18:09
Jonathan Toews Wrist Shot Hit Right Post
·
TOR 3·WPG 3
3rd·18:08
Mark Scheifele Wrist Shot saved by Dennis Hildeby
·
TOR 3·WPG 3
3rd·18:02
Giveaway by Morgan Rielly
TOR 3·WPG 3
3rd·18:00
Takeaway by Morgan Rielly
TOR 3·WPG 3
3rd·17:58
Kyle Connor Slap Shot saved by Dennis Hildeby
·
TOR 3·WPG 3
3rd·17:22
Jonathan Toews Wrist Shot saved by Dennis Hildeby
·
TOR 3·WPG 3
3rd·16:47
Scott Laughton faceoff won against Mark Scheifele
·
TOR 3·WPG 3
3rd·16:47
Timeout - Home
TOR 3·WPG 3
3rd·16:47
Matthew Knies High-sticking against Gabriel Vilardi
·
TOR 3·WPG 3

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

WPG

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

WPG -1.5·O/U 6.5·TOR +124/WPG -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE

Kyle ConnorWPG · LW
DIST MI293.099+
Cole KoepkeWPG · LW
SKATE MPH24.299
Morgan BarronWPG · C
SHOT MPH95.697
Josh MorrisseyWPG · D
DIST MI282.397
Calle JarnkrokTOR · C
SHOT MPH94.596

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · WPG favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WPG win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WPG win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WPG win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

WPG vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

129

projections · 105 high confidence

Shots on goal

Kyle ConnorWPG
3.7± 1.8high
Auston MatthewsTOR
3.6± 2.5high
William NylanderTOR
2.7± 2.3high

Goals

Kyle ConnorWPG
0.6± 0.8high
John TavaresTOR
0.5± 0.7high
William NylanderTOR
0.5± 0.7high

Points

Mark ScheifeleWPG
1.4± 1.2high
William NylanderTOR
1.2± 1.4high
John TavaresTOR
1.0± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands