Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ANA at EDM?

The model favors ANA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3EDM

ANA

28-22-3

EDM

27-19-8

NHLMon, Jan 26FinalSeriesEDM leads series 1-0VegasEDM -270

ANA · top performer

Mikael Granlund

C · #64

3Points

—

SOG

EDM · top performer

Mattias Ekholm

D · #14

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. GauthierLW · #61	0	1	-4	5	1	0	0	17:55
M. GranlundC · #64	3	0	-2	5	0	1	0	24:17
J. HarkinsC · #24	0	0	-1	2	1	0	2	11:26
R. JohnstonLW · #44	0	0	-1	0	3	1	0	9:39
A. KillornLW · #17	1	0	-2	1	0	0	0	19:18
C. KreiderLW · #20	0	1	-2	4	0	0	0	17:18
R. PoehlingC · #25	0	1	-2	1	2	2	0	18:53
B. SenneckeRW · #45	0	2	-4	7	1	0	0	25:31
R. StromeC · #16	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	4:42
J. VielLW · #28	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	12:47
T. WasheC · #42	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	10:34

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. GudasD · #7	0	0	-2	0	3	2	0	14:59
D. HellesonD · #14	0	0	-1	0	3	0	0	14:56
J. LaCombeD · #2	0	1	-2	1	4	3	0	26:16
P. MintyukovD · #98	0	0	-1	1	0	2	0	18:45
I. MooreD · #74	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	12:53
J. TroubaD · #65	0	1	0	8	1	3	0	22:49
O. ZellwegerD · #51	0	0	-2	3	0	0	0	15:09

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. HussoG · #33	30	5	25	.833	57:37

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. DraisaitlC · #29	0	4	2	1	0	0	0	20:09
T. FredericC · #10	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	7:59
Z. HymanLW · #18	1	1	2	3	0	2	0	19:22
M. JanmarkC · #13	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:45
K. KapanenRW · #42	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	15:35
C. LazarC · #20	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	11:24
C. McDavidC · #97	1	1	3	3	0	0	0	23:36
R. Nugent-HopkinsC · #93	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	19:15
V. PodkolzinRW · #92	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	16:09
J. RoslovicC · #28	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	11:13
J. SamanskiC · #81	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	7:43
M. SavoieC · #22	0	1	1	2	0	0	4	10:41

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. BouchardD · #2	0	1	2	1	2	2	0	22:47
M. EkholmD · #14	3	0	3	4	1	2	0	19:58
T. EmbersonD · #49	0	1	1	1	0	2	2	14:52
D. NurseD · #25	1	0	1	2	1	2	0	22:23
S. StastneyD · #24	1	0	2	1	0	0	0	14:23
J. WalmanD · #96	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	22:33

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. JarryG · #35	41	4	37	.902	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

ANA

Away

Stat

EDM

Home

Shots

75.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

Apr 21

ANA3@

EDM4

Apr 23

ANA6@

EDM4

Apr 25

EDM4@

ANA6

Apr 27

EDM3@

ANA4

Apr 29

ANA1@

EDM4

May 1

EDM2@

ANA5

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

EDM -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ANA+22031%

EDM-27073%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗SpreadBet EDM -1.5↗

Line movement · 20 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

EDM beat ANA 7-4. M. Ekholm led the way — 3 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
ANA	1	2	1	4
EDM	1	4	2	7

Period scoring

ANA won 0 · EDM won 2

ANA

EDM

Play-by-play · 343 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
ANA 4·EDM 7
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
ANA 4·EDM 7
3rd·19:49
Josh Samanski faceoff won against Tim Washe
·
ANA 4·EDM 7
3rd·19:49
Objects on Ice
ANA 4·EDM 7
3rd·19:49
Mattias Ekholm Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (49)
·
ANA 4·EDM 7
3rd·19:44
Leon Draisaitl faceoff won against Cutter Gauthier
·
ANA 4·EDM 6
3rd·19:44
Puck Frozen - Goalie
ANA 4·EDM 6
3rd·19:41
Chris Kreider Backhand saved by Tristan Jarry
·
ANA 4·EDM 6
3rd·19:10
Jacob Trouba shot blocked by Ryan Poehling
·
ANA 4·EDM 6
3rd·19:00
Jacob Trouba Wrist Shot saved by Tristan Jarry
·
ANA 4·EDM 6
3rd·18:57
Takeaway by Jake Walman
ANA 4·EDM 6
3rd·18:49
Takeaway by Beckett Sennecke
ANA 4·EDM 6
3rd·18:30
Ian Moore Tip-In saved by Tristan Jarry
·
ANA 4·EDM 6
3rd·18:12
Ryan Poehling faceoff won against Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
·
ANA 4·EDM 6
3rd·18:12
Connor McDavid Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (48), Evan Bouchard (42)
· ·
ANA 4·EDM 6
3rd·17:54
Connor McDavid shot blocked by Jackson LaCombe
·
ANA 4·EDM 5
3rd·17:41
Mikael Granlund faceoff won against Leon Draisaitl
·
ANA 4·EDM 5
3rd·17:41
Goalie Stopped
ANA 4·EDM 5
3rd·17:39
Pavel Mintyukov Wrist Shot saved by Tristan Jarry
·
ANA 4·EDM 5
3rd·17:37
Takeaway by Pavel Mintyukov
ANA 4·EDM 5
3rd·17:20
Giveaway by Connor McDavid
ANA 4·EDM 5
3rd·17:15
Jansen Harkins Wrist Shot saved by Tristan Jarry
·
ANA 4·EDM 5
3rd·17:04
Jackson LaCombe hit Mattias Janmark
·
ANA 4·EDM 5
3rd·16:24
Curtis Lazar faceoff won against Ryan Poehling
·
ANA 4·EDM 5
3rd·16:24
Icing
ANA 4·EDM 5
3rd·16:07
Giveaway by Alex Killorn
ANA 4·EDM 5
3rd·15:22
Connor McDavid faceoff won against Mikael Granlund
·
ANA 4·EDM 5
3rd·15:22
Icing
ANA 4·EDM 5
3rd·15:16
Darnell Nurse hit Ian Moore
·
ANA 4·EDM 5
3rd·15:09
Jake Walman Snap Shot saved by Ville Husso
·
ANA 4·EDM 5

Betting line

EDM -1.5·O/U 6.5·ANA +220/EDM -270

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

dmonton Oilers held off Anaheim Ducks, 7–4.

EDM -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.1%

ensemble · EDM favored

Elo Static
56.1%
P(EDM win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
56.1%
P(EDM win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
56.1%
P(EDM win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+220

Close price

+220

Open no-vig

30.0%

Close no-vig

30.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ANA at EDM?: The model favors ANA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

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