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CHI#4 · National Football Conference
Chicago Bears
0-0 (0.0%) · -
Model verdict
Where they stand
The verdict · Elo rating
#15 of 32
Elo rating 1520.2 · as of 2026-05-04 · nfl_team_ratings
Rank within the full 32-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade
Final 5 · 2026
2025-12-20 → 2026-01-18 · Full ATS profile →
Won by 6 vs GB, 22-16, 2025-12-20. Covered the spread (latest line).
Lost by 4 at SF, 38-42, 2025-12-28. Covered the spread (latest line).
Lost by 3 vs DET, 16-19, 2026-01-04. Did not cover the spread (latest line).
Won by 4 vs GB, 31-27, 2026-01-10. Covered the spread (latest line).
Lost by 3 vs LAR, 17-20, 2026-01-18. Covered the spread (latest line).
latest-line grading · capture began 2026-05-01
Graded snap by snap
How good were they, snap to snap?
Their offense ranked 7th of 32 in the 2025 regular season, across 1006 graded plays; the defense ranked 15th across 903.
EPA per play is how many points the average play was worth. Zero means the play was worth what an average play in that situation is worth. Across all 32 teams in 2025, offenses averaged +0.009 per play and defenses allowed +0.014 — those are averages of the 32 team rates, not play-weighted.
1006 off plays · 903 def plays · win-probability band 0.05–0.95 · explosive = 20+ pass / 12+ rush yds
OFFENSE · 2025 REG
+0.095
Team EPA per play
7th of 32lg avg +0.009
DEFENSE · 2025 REG
+0.001
Team EPA per play allowed
15th of 32lg avg +0.014
The full split1006/903 plays
Offense — team-wide, every graded snap
All plays+0.09581
7th of 32 · lg avg +0.009 · 2024 REG -0.111 (28th)
Success46.9%77
8th of 32 · lg avg 44.2% · 2024 REG 39.3% (29th)
Explosive8.8%77
8th of 32 · lg avg 7.6% · 2024 REG 5.9% (28th)
Dropbacks+0.12977
8th of 32 · lg avg +0.043 · 2024 REG -0.108 (29th)
Rushes+0.04687
5th of 32 · lg avg -0.043 · 2024 REG -0.117 (26th)
Defense — allowed, lower is better
All plays+0.00155
15th of 32 · lg avg +0.014 · 2024 REG +0.038 (21st)
Success46.2%29
23rd of 32 · lg avg 44.3% · 2024 REG 45.7% (24th)
Explosive9.5%6
30th of 32 · lg avg 7.6% · 2024 REG 10.3% (32nd)
Dropbacks+0.03055
15th of 32 · lg avg +0.050 · 2024 REG +0.046 (14th)
Rushes-0.03642
19th of 32 · lg avg -0.042 · 2024 REG +0.027 (29th)
Bar = where they rank among all 32 teams. Number = the raw value.
Whole-team totals over every graded snap. The QB card further down rates one passer’s dropbacks from a different table, so its EPA/play is a different number, not a contradiction.
Offense EPA/play — 2025 REG +0.095 · 2024 REG -0.111 · +0.206
Defense EPA/play allowed — 2025 REG +0.001 · 2024 REG +0.038 · -0.037
Two separate completed regular seasons. This is what happened, not a forecast.
nfl_team_epa, 2025 REG, 1006 plays, WP 0.05-0.95, computed 2026-06-18 · method r782-epa-v1
nflverse / nflfastR (CC BY 4.0), modified by theoneanalytics: aggregated to team/QB-season EPA. Win-probability band excludes garbage time. Regular season only — this table carries no playoff rows and no week-by-week splits.
Stat leaders
Who carries them
Passing yards
- 1Caleb Williams27 TD3,942
- 2Tyson Bagent0 TD47
- 3DJ Moore1 TD2
Rushing yards
- 1D'Andre Swift9 TD1,087
- 2Kyle Monangai5 TD783
- 3Caleb Williams3 TD383
- 4DJ Moore1 TD79
- 5Brittain Brown1 TD37
Receiving yards
- 1Colston Loveland6 TD713
- 2DJ Moore6 TD682
- 3Rome Odunze6 TD661
- 4Luther Burden III2 TD652
- 5Cole Kmet2 TD347
Receptions
- 1Colston Loveland16 G58
- 2DJ Moore17 G50
- 3Luther Burden III15 G47
- 4Rome Odunze12 G44
- 5Olamide Zaccheaus14 G39
Total TDs
- 1Caleb Williams17 G31
- 2D'Andre Swift16 G10
- 3DJ Moore17 G8
- 4Rome Odunze12 G6
- 5Colston Loveland16 G6
Passing + rushing + receiving TDs combined.
Yards per carry
- 1Caleb Williams77 car5.0
- 2D'Andre Swift223 car4.9
- 3Kyle Monangai169 car4.6
Min 50 carries.
2025 season · player_stats_weekly (nflverse weekly ingest) · counting boards ungated · yards/carry requires 50+ carries
Under center
What the QB is worth
QB value (our estimate)
Caleb Williams
658 att · n=42 qualified QBs
Our QBR estimate49.1
- EPA / play+0.097
- Accuracy +-7.3%
- Pressure0.2%
Built on +0.097 EPA/play and -7.3% accuracy over expected. Our estimate, not ESPN's QBR.
Box-score power tier · league of 32
Where they rank
Elite
avg rank 6.4
YDS
6th
Total yards
PASS
12th
Pass yards
RUSH
3rd
Rush yards
PTS
10th
Points
TO
1st
Turnovers
Offensive profile · 2025
How the offense plays
Per-game · 17 weeks
Identity · Pass-leaning
62% pass · 38% rush
PASS
RUSH
Total yards
379vs 342 yds/GSlight edge
Passing yards
235vs 225 yds/GLeague avg
Rushing yards
144vs 117 yds/GAbove avg
Points scored
26.5vs 23.5 pts/GSlight edge
Turnovers
0.50vs 0.90 TO/GAbove avg
Tick mark on each bar shows the league average for the 2025 season. The team identity strip up top reads at a glance: pass-heavy offenses usually score more in volume; run-heavy offenses control time of possession and game script.
2026 Draft Class · 6 picks
The new arrivals.
Recent transactions
Latest player movement
- May 26
Waived RB Deion Hankins.
- May 21
Signed RB Salvon Ahmed and DB Anthony Johnson Jr. to contracts. Waived RB Deion Hankins. Placed P Tory Taylor on the exempt/international player list.
Source · ESPN
Offense · 44
The attack
B. Jones
OT · #70
B. Brown
RB · #38
C. Barnett
G · #76
C. Williams
QB · #18
C. Keenum
QB · #11
C. Kmet
TE · #85
C. Bennett
RB · #30
C. Loveland
TE · #84
D. Swift
RB · #4
D. Wright
OT · #58
G. Bradbury
C · #67
H. Large
TE · #43
J. Walker
WR · #9
J. Kump
C · #64
J. Wills Jr.
OT · #71
J. Thuney
G · #62
J. Jackson
G · #73
J. McFadden
G · #74
J. Richardson
WR · #83
K. Davis
WR · #27
K. Raymond
WR · #14
K. Amegadjie
OT · #72
K. Hergel
G · #60
K. Monangai
RB · #25
K. Hudson
WR · #20
L. Jones
C · #54
L. Newman
OT · #65
L. Burden III
WR · #10
M. Murphy
OT · #63
M. Alexander
WR · #13
M. Moss
QB · #16
N. Kalinic
TE · #86
O. Kelly
WR · #82
O. Trapilo
OT · #75
Q. Ismail
TE · #80
R. Odunze
WR · #15
R. Johnson
RB · #23
S. Ahmed
RB · #36
S. Roush
TE · #87
S. Miller
WR · #35
S. Carlson
TE · #88
T. Benedet
OT · #79
T. Bagent
QB · #17
Z. Thomas
WR · #81
Defense · 43
The stop unit
A. Johnson Jr.
S · #26
A. Booker
DE · #94
C. Lewis
CB · #21
C. Bryant
S · #2
D. Jackson
LB · #48
D. Flowers
CB · #37
D. Hardy
DE · #92
D. Odeyingbo
DE · #55
D. Bush
LB · #12
D. Thieneman
S · #31
D. Manning
CB · #27
E. Hicks
S · #22
G. Owens
S · #30
G. Dexter Sr.
DT · #99
G. Jarrett
DE · #50
J. Sanborn
LB · #57
J. Lynch
DT · #97
J. Kromah
DE · #59
J. Loving
DT · #91
J. Johnson
CB · #1
J. Jones
CB · #33
J. Martin
DE · #69
J. Rhattigan
LB · #46
J. Garvin
DE · #52
J. van den Berg
DT · #96
J. Blackwell
CB · #39
K. Eziomume
CB · #20
K. Street
DT · #93
K. Elliott
LB · #49
K. Gordon
CB · #6
M. Muhammad
CB · #24
M. Sweat
DE · #98
N. Sewell
LB · #45
N. Gallimore
DT · #90
N. Sewell
LB · #44
R. Hyppolite II
LB · #47
S. Turner
DT · #95
S. Thomas
S · #38
T.J. Edwards
LB · #53
T. Smith
CB · #32
T. Fields II
LB · #43
T. Stevenson
CB · #29
W. Matthews III
LB · #35
Special teams · 4
