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CLE#4 · American Football Conference

Cleveland Browns

0-0 (0.0%) · -

Model verdict

Where they stand

The verdict · Elo rating

#27 of 32

Elo rating 1407.9 · as of 2026-05-04 · nfl_team_ratings

Rank within the full 32-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade

Final 5 · 2026

2025-12-07 → 2026-01-04 · Full ATS profile →

latest-line grading · capture began 2026-05-01

Model picks on CLE

No graded picks for this league yet

Graded snap by snap

How good were they, snap to snap?

Their offense ranked 31st of 32 in the 2025 regular season, across 858 graded plays; the defense ranked 4th across 868.

EPA per play is how many points the average play was worth. Zero means the play was worth what an average play in that situation is worth. Across all 32 teams in 2025, offenses averaged +0.009 per play and defenses allowed +0.014 — those are averages of the 32 team rates, not play-weighted.

858 off plays · 868 def plays · win-probability band 0.05–0.95 · explosive = 20+ pass / 12+ rush yds

OFFENSE · 2025 REG

-0.179

Team EPA per play

31st of 32

lg avg +0.009

DEFENSE · 2025 REG

-0.088

Team EPA per play allowed

4th of 32

lg avg +0.014

The full split858/868 plays

Offense — team-wide, every graded snap

All plays-0.1793

31st of 32 · lg avg +0.009 · 2024 REG -0.217 (32nd)

Success34.3%0

32nd of 32 · lg avg 44.2% · 2024 REG 35.8% (32nd)

Explosive5.9%3

31st of 32 · lg avg 7.6% · 2024 REG 5.5% (31st)

Dropbacks-0.2320

32nd of 32 · lg avg +0.043 · 2024 REG -0.247 (32nd)

Rushes-0.09919

26th of 32 · lg avg -0.043 · 2024 REG -0.161 (28th)

Defense — allowed, lower is better

All plays-0.08890

4th of 32 · lg avg +0.014 · 2024 REG +0.038 (22nd)

Success40.9%90

4th of 32 · lg avg 44.3% · 2024 REG 42.9% (11th)

Explosive7.5%48

17th of 32 · lg avg 7.6% · 2024 REG 10.1% (31st)

Dropbacks-0.12899+

1st of 32 · lg avg +0.050 · 2024 REG +0.122 (27th)

Rushes-0.03339

20th of 32 · lg avg -0.042 · 2024 REG -0.086 (11th)

Bar = where they rank among all 32 teams. Number = the raw value.

Whole-team totals over every graded snap. The QB card further down rates one passer’s dropbacks from a different table, so its EPA/play is a different number, not a contradiction.

Offense EPA/play — 2025 REG -0.179 · 2024 REG -0.217 · +0.038

Defense EPA/play allowed — 2025 REG -0.088 · 2024 REG +0.038 · -0.126

Two separate completed regular seasons. This is what happened, not a forecast.

nfl_team_epa, 2025 REG, 858 plays, WP 0.05-0.95, computed 2026-06-18 · method r782-epa-v1

nflverse / nflfastR (CC BY 4.0), modified by theoneanalytics: aggregated to team/QB-season EPA. Win-probability band excludes garbage time. Regular season only — this table carries no playoff rows and no week-by-week splits.

Stat leaders

Who carries them

Passing yards

1Shedeur Sanders7 TD1,400
2Dillon Gabriel7 TD937
3Joe Flacco2 TD815

Rushing yards

Receiving yards

1Harold Fannin Jr.6 TD731
2Jerry Jeudy2 TD602
3Isaiah Bond0 TD338
4David Njoku4 TD293
5Dylan Sampson2 TD271

Receptions

1Harold Fannin Jr.16 G72
2Jerry Jeudy17 G50
3David Njoku11 G33
4Dylan Sampson15 G33
5Jerome Ford13 G26

Total TDs

1Shedeur Sanders8 G8
2Harold Fannin Jr.16 G7
3Dillon Gabriel10 G7
4Quinshon Judkins14 G7
5David Njoku11 G4

Passing + rushing + receiving TDs combined.

Yards per carry

1Quinshon Judkins230 car3.6
2Dylan Sampson65 car2.7

Min 50 carries.

2025 season · player_stats_weekly (nflverse weekly ingest) · counting boards ungated · yards/carry requires 50+ carries

Under center

What the QB is worth

QB value (our estimate)

Shedeur Sanders

212 att · n=42 qualified QBs

Our QBR estimate19.0

EPA / play-0.211
Accuracy +-3.6%
Pressure0.4%

Built on -0.211 EPA/play and -3.6% accuracy over expected. Our estimate, not ESPN's QBR.

Box-score power tier · league of 32

Where they rank

Bottom tier

avg rank 29.4

YDS

31st

Total yards

PASS

31st

Pass yards

RUSH

27th

Rush yards

PTS

30th

Points

28th

Turnovers

Offensive profile · 2025

How the offense plays

Per-game · 17 weeks

Identity · Pass-leaning

66% pass · 34% rush

PASS

RUSH

Total yards

282vs 342 yds/GBelow avg

Passing yards

185vs 225 yds/GBelow avg

Rushing yards

97vs 117 yds/GBelow avg

Points scored

14.8vs 23.5 pts/GBelow avg

Turnovers

1.20vs 0.90 TO/GBelow avg

Tick mark on each bar shows the league average for the 2025 season. The team identity strip up top reads at a glance: pass-heavy offenses usually score more in volume; run-heavy offenses control time of possession and game script.

2026 Draft Class · 8 picks

The new arrivals.

RND 1 · PICK 9

Spencer Fano

OT · Utah

RND 1 · PICK 24

KC Concepcion

WR · Texas A&M

RND 2 · PICK 39

Denzel Boston

WR · Washington

RND 2 · PICK 58

Emmanuel McNeil-Warren

SAF · Toledo

RND 3 · PICK 86

Austin Barber

OT · Florida

RND 5 · PICK 146

Parker Brailsford

C · Alabama

RND 5 · PICK 170

Joe Royer

TE · Cincinnati

RND 6 · PICK 182

Taylen Green

QB · Arkansas

Recent transactions

Latest player movement

8 moves

Jun 11
Signed S Ronnie Hickman to a restricted free agent tender contract.
Jun 10
Signed WR KC Concepcion to a rookie contract.
Jun 4
Signed DE Benton Whitley to a contract.
Jun 2
Traded DE Myles Garrett to Los Angeles for LB Jared Verse, a 2027 first-round pick, a 2028 second-round pick and a conditional 2029 third-round pick. Placed LN Markees Watts on the reserve/retired list.
Jun 1
Traded DE Myles Garrett to the Los Angeles Rams for LB Jared Verse, a 2027 first-round draft pick, a 2028 second-round draft pick and a 2029 third-round draft pick.
May 27
Reverted DB DeCarlos Nicholson to injured reserve.
May 26
Signed CB Tyron Herring to a contract. Waived CB DeCarlos Nicholson with an injury designation.
May 20
Waived TE Caden Prieskorn and WR Isaiah Wooden