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BUF#2 · American Football Conference
Buffalo Bills
0-0 (0.0%) · -
Model verdict
Where they stand
The verdict · Elo rating
#2 of 32
Elo rating 1606.7 · as of 2026-05-04 · nfl_team_ratings
Rank within the full 32-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade
Final 5 · 2026
2025-12-21 → 2026-01-17 · Full ATS profile →
Won by 3 at CLE, 23-20, 2025-12-21. Did not cover the spread (latest line).
Lost by 1 vs PHI, 12-13, 2025-12-28. Did not cover the spread (latest line).
Won by 27 vs NYJ, 35-8, 2026-01-04. Covered the spread (latest line).
Won by 3 at JAX, 27-24, 2026-01-11. Covered the spread (latest line).
Lost by 3 at DEN, 30-33, 2026-01-17. Did not cover the spread (latest line).
latest-line grading · capture began 2026-05-01
Graded snap by snap
How good were they, snap to snap?
Their offense ranked 5th of 32 in the 2025 regular season, across 905 graded plays; the defense ranked 13th across 834.
EPA per play is how many points the average play was worth. Zero means the play was worth what an average play in that situation is worth. Across all 32 teams in 2025, offenses averaged +0.009 per play and defenses allowed +0.014 — those are averages of the 32 team rates, not play-weighted.
905 off plays · 834 def plays · win-probability band 0.05–0.95 · explosive = 20+ pass / 12+ rush yds
OFFENSE · 2025 REG
+0.119
Team EPA per play
5th of 32lg avg +0.009
DEFENSE · 2025 REG
-0.016
Team EPA per play allowed
13th of 32lg avg +0.014
The full split905/834 plays
Offense — team-wide, every graded snap
All plays+0.11987
5th of 32 · lg avg +0.009 · 2024 REG +0.181 (2nd)
Success48.0%87
5th of 32 · lg avg 44.2% · 2024 REG 48.1% (6th)
Explosive9.9%94
3rd of 32 · lg avg 7.6% · 2024 REG 8.7% (12th)
Dropbacks+0.15481
7th of 32 · lg avg +0.043 · 2024 REG +0.248 (2nd)
Rushes+0.07397
2nd of 32 · lg avg -0.043 · 2024 REG +0.080 (2nd)
Defense — allowed, lower is better
All plays-0.01661
13th of 32 · lg avg +0.014 · 2024 REG -0.014 (11th)
Success43.0%65
12th of 32 · lg avg 44.3% · 2024 REG 44.5% (18th)
Explosive8.4%32
22nd of 32 · lg avg 7.6% · 2024 REG 8.0% (17th)
Dropbacks-0.09794
3rd of 32 · lg avg +0.050 · 2024 REG +0.107 (24th)
Rushes+0.0853
31st of 32 · lg avg -0.042 · 2024 REG -0.178 (3rd)
Bar = where they rank among all 32 teams. Number = the raw value.
Whole-team totals over every graded snap. The QB card further down rates one passer’s dropbacks from a different table, so its EPA/play is a different number, not a contradiction.
Offense EPA/play — 2025 REG +0.119 · 2024 REG +0.181 · -0.062
Defense EPA/play allowed — 2025 REG -0.016 · 2024 REG -0.014 · -0.003
Two separate completed regular seasons. This is what happened, not a forecast.
nfl_team_epa, 2025 REG, 905 plays, WP 0.05-0.95, computed 2026-06-18 · method r782-epa-v1
nflverse / nflfastR (CC BY 4.0), modified by theoneanalytics: aggregated to team/QB-season EPA. Win-probability band excludes garbage time. Regular season only — this table carries no playoff rows and no week-by-week splits.
Stat leaders
Who carries them
Passing yards
- 1Josh Allen25 TD3,668
- 2Mitchell Trubisky4 TD313
Rushing yards
- 1James Cook12 TD1,621
- 2Josh Allen14 TD579
- 3Ray Davis0 TD275
- 4Ty Johnson3 TD200
- 5Elijah Moore1 TD24
Receiving yards
- 1Khalil Shakir4 TD719
- 2Dalton Kincaid5 TD571
- 3Dawson Knox4 TD417
- 4Keon Coleman4 TD404
- 5Josh Palmer0 TD303
Receptions
- 1Khalil Shakir16 G72
- 2Dalton Kincaid12 G39
- 3Keon Coleman12 G38
- 4Dawson Knox16 G36
- 5James Cook17 G33
Total TDs
- 1Josh Allen16 G39
- 2James Cook17 G14
- 3Ty Johnson17 G5
- 4Dalton Kincaid12 G5
- 5Mitchell Trubisky4 G4
Passing + rushing + receiving TDs combined.
Yards per carry
- 1James Cook309 car5.2
- 2Josh Allen112 car5.2
- 3Ray Davis58 car4.7
- 4Ty Johnson50 car4.0
Min 50 carries.
2025 season · player_stats_weekly (nflverse weekly ingest) · counting boards ungated · yards/carry requires 50+ carries
Under center
What the QB is worth
QB value (our estimate)
Josh Allen
534 att · n=42 qualified QBs
Our QBR estimate74.2
- EPA / play+0.235
- Accuracy +1.4%
- Pressure0.2%
Built on +0.235 EPA/play and 1.4% accuracy over expected. Our estimate, not ESPN's QBR.
Box-score power tier · league of 32
Where they rank
Strong
avg rank 7.6
YDS
3rd
Total yards
PASS
13th
Pass yards
RUSH
1st
Rush yards
PTS
3rd
Points
TO
18th
Turnovers
Offensive profile · 2025
How the offense plays
Per-game · 17 weeks
Identity · Balanced
59% pass · 41% rush
PASS
RUSH
Total yards
394vs 342 yds/GAbove avg
Passing yards
234vs 225 yds/GLeague avg
Rushing yards
160vs 117 yds/GAbove avg
Points scored
31.1vs 23.5 pts/GAbove avg
Turnovers
1.00vs 0.90 TO/GSlight gap
Tick mark on each bar shows the league average for the 2025 season. The team identity strip up top reads at a glance: pass-heavy offenses usually score more in volume; run-heavy offenses control time of possession and game script.
2026 Draft Class · 10 picks
The new arrivals.
RND 2 · PICK 35
Tomarrion Parker
EDGE · Clemson
RND 2 · PICK 62
Davison Igbinosun
CB · Ohio St.
RND 4 · PICK 102
Jude Bowry
OT · Boston Col.
RND 4 · PICK 125
Skyler Bell
WR · Connecticut
RND 4 · PICK 126
Kaleb Elarms-Orr
LB · TCU
RND 5 · PICK 167
Jalon Kilgore
SAF · South Carolina
RND 5 · PICK 181
Zane Durant
DT · Penn St.
RND 7 · PICK 220
Toriano Pride
CB · Missouri
RND 7 · PICK 239
Tommy Doman
P · Florida
RND 7 · PICK 241
Ar'maj Reed-Adams
G · Texas A&M
Recent transactions
Latest player movement
- Jun 12
Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a rookie contract.
- Jun 11
Waived CB Dorian Strong and RB Desmond Reid with injury designations. Signed WRs Deven Thompkins and Max Tomczak to contracts. Waived WR Gabriel Benyard.
- Jun 1
Waived CB Daryl Porter Jr. Signed WR Mac Dalena to a contract.
- May 27
Signed LB Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles to a contract. Released WR Max Tomczak.
Source · ESPN
Offense · 45
The attack
A. Anderson
OT · #70
A. Reed-Adams
G · #60
A. Corbett
C · #63
B. VanSumeren
FB · #45
B. Fina
G · #75
C. Lundt
OT · #77
C. McGovern
C · #66
D. Weatherspoon
OT · #76
D. Kincaid
TE · #86
D. Pettis
WR
D. Knox
TE · #88
D. Dawkins
OT · #73
D. Moore
WR · #2
F. Gore Jr.
RB · #20
I. Wheeler
RB · #27
J. Maclin
WR · #84
J. Acker
FB · #40
J. Hawes
TE · #85
J. Cook III
RB · #4
J. Allen
QB · #17
J. Palmer
WR · #5
J. Bowry
OT · #74
K. Latu
TE · #83
K. Coleman
WR · #0
K. Shakir
WR · #10
K. Allen
QB · #11
L. Cushenberry III
C · #53
M. Dalena
WR · #82
M. Tomczak
WR · #80
M. Hardman Jr.
WR · #1
N. Broeker
G · #65
O. Torrence
G · #64
Q. Skinner
WR · #82
R. Davis
RB · #7
S. Van Pran-Granger
C · #62
S. Buechele
QB · #6
S. Zylstra
TE · #48
S. Bell
WR · #13
S. Brown
OT · #79
S. Gosnell
WR · #89
T. Clayton
OT · #67
T. Sherfield
WR · #81
T. Johnson
RB · #26
T. Grable
OT · #68
T. Shavers
WR · #14
Defense · 43
The stop unit
A. Jones Jr.
DE · #59
B. Chubb
LB · #9
C.J. Gardner-Johnson
S · #22
C. Denhoff
DE · #57
C. Benford
CB · #47
C. Bishop
S · #24
D.J. Miller
CB
D. Hamlin
S · #3
D. Igbinosun
CB · #21
D. Alford
CB · #23
D. Flannigan-Fowles
LB · #50
D. Walker
DT · #96
D. Carter
DT · #90
D. Strong
CB · #43
D. Williams
LB · #42
E. Oliver
DT · #91
G. Stone
S · #25
G. Rousseau
LB · #15
J. Kilgore
S · #29
J. Solomon
LB · #56
J. Ciarlo
LB · #35
J. Andreessen
LB · #44
J. Dunbar
CB · #36
J. Hancock
CB · #37
K. Elarms-Orr
LB · #52
K. Walker
CB · #41
K. Jenkins
LB · #49
K. Huisman
DT · #61
L. Jackson
DE · #94
M. Hairston
CB · #31
M. Hoecht
DE · #55
M. Danna
DE · #51
P. Mathis
DT · #72
S. Franklin Jr.
S · #28
T.J. Sanders
DT · #98
T. Couch
CB · #33
T. Bernard
LB · #8
T. Gaines
LB · #54
T. Parker
LB · #99
T. Akingbesote
DT · #71
T. Pride Jr.
CB · #32
Z. Durant
DT · #92
Z. Logue
DT · #93
Special teams · 4
