Recent form
6-4
NYY +1.1 vs TOR +1.0 margin
NYY brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees
TOR
TOR
63-66
PregameSat, 1:35 PM EDTESPN Unlmtd, MLB.TV
NYY
NYY
72-55
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketYankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Dylan Cease
SP · #84
7-5
W-L
2.42
ERA
1.06
WHIP
201
K
137.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsNYY-6.1 IP2 ER10 K
vsBOS-5.0 IP3 ER7 K
@CHC-7.0 IP0 ER10 K
Home starter
Ryan Weathers
SP · #40
5-7
W-L
3.56
ERA
1.19
WHIP
140
K
134.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@TOR-7.1 IP1 ER4 K
vsSEA-5.2 IP1 ER4 K
vsSTLW(5-7)6.0 IP0 ER6 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob39% / 61%
LeanHome · 11pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesNYY win series 3-1
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
NYY vs TOR.
NYY enters on a 4-game win streak; TOR is 7-3 over its last 10.
61.0%
model · NYY win prob
Recent form
- NYY6–4+1.1
- TOR7–3+1.0
Situational
- NYY2d rest
- TOR2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. NYY has 6 straight road games; TOR has 3.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Dylan CeaseTOR8.6strikeouts · ±2.6
Dylan Cease · 8.6 K · last-10 8.6 vs season 8.5.
- Cam SchlittlerNYY7.7strikeouts · ±2.2
Cam Schlittler · 7.7 K · last-10 8 vs season 7.3.
- Ryan WeathersNYY5.4strikeouts · ±1.3
Ryan Weathers · 5.4 K · last-10 5.1 vs season 5.8.
Head-to-head · 1-2 · last 3
NYY is 1-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-14NYY @ TOR1–3
- 2026-08-15NYY @ TOR1–4
- 2026-08-16NYY @ TOR4–3
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
60.7%
ensemble · NYY favored
Elo Static
62.5%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
61.1%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
62.4%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.63 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
96% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
NYY vs TOR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
126
projections · 103 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Dylan CeaseTOR8.6± 2.6high
- Cam SchlittlerNYY7.7± 2.2high
- Gerrit ColeNYY6.5± 2.4medium
Hits
- Trent GrishamNYY1.2± 1.0high
- Alejandro KirkTOR1.2± 1.0high
- Brett BatemanTOR1.2± 1.2low
Total bases
- Trent GrishamNYY2.6± 3.2high
- Alejandro KirkTOR2.1± 2.5high
- Ben RiceNYY1.8± 2.1high
RBIs
- Trent GrishamNYY0.9± 1.4high
- Alejandro KirkTOR0.9± 1.1high
- Ben RiceNYY0.6± 0.7high
Earned runs
- Max ScherzerTOR3.5± 3.8low
- Will WarrenNYY2.8± 2.4high
- Shane BieberTOR2.7± 3.0low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
TOR
league avg
NYY
.685
OPS
.719
▶.717
.306
OBP
.318
.309
3.98
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.45
3.96
Team ERA
4.17
▶3.22
1.31
WHIP
1.30
▶1.17
8.7
K / 9
8.5
▶9.1
The One modelEdge
Sat, Aug 22TOR
Blue Jays
67-95
vs61.0%NYY
NYY★
Yankees
83-67
TOR 39.0%win prob61.0% NYY
NYY 1536 · TOR 1472Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- BravesBrewers8/22 - 2:10 PM EDT
- NationalsMarlins8/22 - 4:10 PM EDT
- CardinalsPhillies8/22 - 6:05 PM EDT
- RaysOrioles8/22 - 7:05 PM EDT
- AngelsRangers8/22 - 7:05 PM EDT
- AthleticsAstros8/22 - 7:10 PM EDT
- MetsWhite Sox8/22 - 7:10 PM EDT
- GiantsRed Sox8/22 - 7:15 PM EDT
- TigersRoyals8/22 - 7:15 PM EDT
- CubsMariners8/22 - 7:15 PM EDT
- PiratesDodgers8/22 - 7:15 PM EDT
- GuardiansRockies8/22 - 8:10 PM EDT
- RedsDiamondbacks8/22 - 8:10 PM EDT
- TwinsPadres8/22 - 8:40 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
