NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+16MIA

WSH

17-60

136152

MIA

41-37

NBASat, Apr 4FinalSeriesMIA leads series 3-0VegasMIA -18.5

Recap · NBA

iami Heat held off Washington Wizards, 152–136.

WSH +18.5 cashed (MIA won by 16). Total cleared the 245.5 OVER by 42.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

Will Riley

G · #27

30.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIA · top performer

Kel'el Ware

C · #7

28.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. GillF · #16	22	6	2-5	—	2-2	-23	5	3
B. CarringtonG · #7	27	11	4-13	3-8	0-1	-25	2	5
B. CoulibalyG · #0	25	12	5-13	0-2	2-4	-20	3	2
W. RileyG · #27	37	31	12-17	2-4	5-6	-3	5	0
T. JohnsonG · #12	25	11	5-13	1-5	—	-17	3	4
Bench
L. BlackF · #14	4	0	0-1	—	—	-7	0	0
J. ChampagnieF · #9	21	12	4-9	1-2	3-3	-12	10	2
J. ReeseF · #15	10	0	0-2	—	—	+5	9	2
S. CooperG · #13	25	20	6-10	3-5	5-6	+6	2	7
J. WatkinsG · #5	19	14	5-8	2-4	2-2	+13	3	1
J. HardyG · #8	25	19	7-15	5-10	—	+3	2	2
Team		136	50-106	17-40	19-24		44	28
DNP: T. Vukcevic

DNP: T. Vukcevic

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. WigginsF · #22	26	21	7-11	4-5	3-4	+24	2	3
S. FontecchioF · #0	19	8	3-4	2-3	—	+12	1	4
B. AdebayoC · #13	24	14	3-6	2-4	6-7	+25	9	7
D. MitchellG · #45	26	12	5-9	2-5	—	+19	4	6
P. LarssonG · #9	24	16	6-10	0-2	4-6	+27	7	4
Bench
K. JohnsonF · #16	1	0	—	—	—	+1	1	0
J. Jaquez Jr.F · #11	32	32	12-18	1-2	7-7	+1	3	4
N. JovicF · #5	13	5	2-6	1-4	—	-19	0	2
K. WareC · #7	36	24	10-15	3-6	1-2	+7	19	2
D. SmithG · #12	12	6	2-5	0-3	2-2	-15	0	1
K. JakucionisG · #25	28	14	4-9	2-5	4-6	-2	3	9
Team		152	54-93	17-39	27-34		49	42
DNP: M. Gardner, V. Goldin, T. Herro, T. Keels

DNP: M. Gardner, V. Goldin, T. Herro, T. Keels

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

MIA leads series 3-0

Feb 8

MIA132@

WSH101

Mar 10

WSH129@

MIA150

Apr 4

WSH136@

MIA152today

Apr 10

MIA140@

WSH117

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIA -18.5

Between 10 and —

Total

245.5

High-scoring · +19.5 vs avg

Moneyline

WSH+12008%

MIA-240096%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIA -18.5↗SpreadBet MIA -18.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

18.5

0.0 since open

Total

245.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 6pp · 1st Quarter · 2:31

WSH

W. Riley

Game leader · 37 min30-point game

31 PTS · 5 REB · 0 AST

MIA

K. Ware

Game leader · 36 minDouble-double

24 PTS · 19 REB · 2 AST

How it ended

MIA beat WSH 152-136. K. Ware led with 24 PTS, 19 REB, 2 AST. MIA outscored the other side 41-25 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIA vs WSH

Starters vs bench

production by unit

WSHstarters 52% of pts

Starters(5)

71 PTS · 18 REB · 14 AST

GS 58

Bench(6)

65 PTS · 26 REB · 14 AST

GS 58

MIAstarters 47% of pts

Starters(5)

71 PTS · 23 REB · 24 AST

GS 69

Bench(6)

81 PTS · 26 REB · 18 AST

GS 78

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

WSH1st Quarter · 2:31 · 28-26

+6pp→ 15% WP

Kasparas Jakucionis · misses two point shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
WSH	32	25	34	45	136
MIA	36	41	45	30	152

Period scoring

WSH won 1 · MIA won 3

Riley 9

Wiggins 11

Champagnie 6

Adebayo 16

Carrington 9

Mitchell 10

Cooper 14

Riley 10

WSH

MIA

Shooting comparison

WSH

MIA

47%

50-106

58%

54-93

43%

17-40

3PT

44%

17-39

79%

19-24

79%

27-34

Play-by-play · 496 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
WSH 136·MIA 152
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
WSH 136·MIA 152
Q4·1.7
shot clock turnover
WSH 136·MIA 152
Q4·14.9
Keshad Johnson offensive rebound
·
WSH 136·MIA 152
Q4·17.4
Kel'el Ware misses free throw 2 of 2
WSH 136·MIA 152
Q4·17.4
Kel'el Ware makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 136·MIA 152
Q4·17.4
Leaky Black shooting foul
WSH 136·MIA 151
Q4·17.4
Kel'el Ware offensive rebound
WSH 136·MIA 151
Q4·17.4
Kel'el Ware misses two point shot
WSH 136·MIA 151
Q4·17.4
Kel'el Ware offensive rebound
WSH 136·MIA 151
Q4·19.6
Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses driving layup
WSH 136·MIA 151
Q4·36.2
Kasparas Jakucionis makes free throw flagrant 2 of 2
WSH 136·MIA 151
Q4·36.2
Heat offensive team rebound
WSH 136·MIA 150
Q4·36.2
Kasparas Jakucionis misses free throw flagrant 1 of 2
WSH 136·MIA 150
Q4·36.2
Leaky Black enters the game for Jamir Watkins
·
WSH 136·MIA 150
Q4·36.2
Keshad Johnson enters the game for Nikola Jovic
· ·
WSH 136·MIA 150
Q4·36.2
Jamir Watkins ejected
WSH 136·MIA 150
Q4·36.2
(00:36.2) [Wizards] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)
WSH 136·MIA 150
Q4·36.2
Jamir Watkins flagrant foul type 2
WSH 136·MIA 150
Q4·40.0
Jaden Hardy lost ball turnover (Dru Smith steals)
·
WSH 136·MIA 150
Q4·46.2
Jaden Hardy defensive rebound
WSH 136·MIA 150
Q4·49.2
Nikola Jovic misses 23-foot three point jumper
WSH 136·MIA 150
Q4·1:07
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
WSH 136·MIA 150
Q4·1:11
Will Riley misses 25-foot three point jumper
WSH 136·MIA 150
Q4·1:24
Dru Smith makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 136·MIA 150
Q4·1:24
Dru Smith makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 136·MIA 149
Q4·1:24
Sharife Cooper shooting foul
WSH 136·MIA 148
Q4·1:36
Jamir Watkins personal foul
WSH 136·MIA 148
Q4·1:46
Sharife Cooper makes free throw 1 of 1
WSH 136·MIA 148
Q4·1:46
Kasparas Jakucionis shooting foul
WSH 135·MIA 148

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

50-106

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

54-93

FG %

17-40

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

17-39

19-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

27-34

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

MIA -18.5·O/U 245.5·WSH +1200/MIA -2400

DraftKings · via ESPN

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIA vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

175

projections · 145 high confidence

Points

Anthony DavisWSH
20.5± 9.2high
Tyler HerroMIA
19.2± 8.0high
Bam AdebayoMIA
18.4± 7.8high

Rebounds

Anthony DavisWSH
11.3± 4.3high
Julian ReeseWSH
10.5± 6.4low
Bam AdebayoMIA
10.3± 3.7high

Assists

Trae YoungWSH
8.1± 3.5medium
Davion MitchellMIA
5.9± 2.8high
Bub CarringtonWSH
5.1± 1.9high

Blocks

Anthony DavisWSH
1.7± 1.5high
Alex SarrWSH
1.6± 1.4high
Kel'el WareMIA
1.3± 2.5high

Steals

Julian ReeseWSH
1.4± 1.7low
Leaky BlackWSH
1.4± 1.7medium
Dru SmithMIA
1.3± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

WSH

league avg

MIA

53.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

54.2%

46.3%

FG%

47.0

▶

46.8%

112.9

PPG

114.9

▶

120.9

25.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.0

15.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR