NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2DEN

59-19

134136

DEN

50-28

NBASat, Apr 4FinalSeriesDEN leads series 2-1VegasSA -1.5

Recap · NBA

enver Nuggets held off San Antonio Spurs, 136–134 in overtime. Decided by 2.

DEN +1.5 cashed (SA lost outright). Total cleared the 244.5 OVER by 25.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SA · top performer

Victor Wembanyama

F · #1

38.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DEN · top performer

Nikola Jokic

C · #15

39.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final / OT

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #30	33	18	6-12	6-9	—	+2	5	2
V. WembanyamaF · #1	40	34	8-17	2-6	16-17	+4	18	7
D. FoxG · #4	40	14	7-19	0-6	—	+7	4	4
D. VassellG · #24	39	18	6-14	3-8	3-3	-10	5	2
S. CastleG · #5	40	20	9-17	0-4	2-2	-10	5	9
Bench
H. BarnesF · #40	17	8	3-4	2-3	—	+2	1	1
K. JohnsonF · #3	17	10	3-10	0-6	4-4	-3	2	0
C. BryantF · #11	5	0	—	—	—	+5	2	0
L. KornetC · #7	13	0	0-1	—	—	-6	5	1
D. HarperG · #2	20	12	5-7	2-3	0-1	-1	3	3
Team		134	47-101	15-45	25-27		50	29
DNP: K. Olynyk, L. Waters III, B. Biyombo, M. Plumlee, J. McLaughlin

DNP: K. Olynyk, L. Waters III, B. Biyombo, M. Plumlee, J. McLaughlin

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. GordonF · #32	41	15	7-12	1-4	—	-1	6	3
C. JohnsonF · #23	39	17	6-11	4-8	1-1	+7	7	1
N. JokicC · #15	44	40	13-25	1-5	13-15	+12	8	13
J. MurrayG · #27	46	15	6-13	3-7	—	+5	4	10
C. BraunG · #0	39	21	7-16	5-11	2-2	+10	8	4
Bench
J. ValanciunasC · #17	6	7	3-6	—	1-2	-3	3	0
T. Hardaway Jr.G · #10	26	10	3-6	2-4	2-2	-4	5	0
T. JonesG · #5	2	0	—	—	—	+4	0	0
B. BrownG · #11	11	5	2-7	1-3	—	-12	2	1
J. StrawtherG · #3	11	6	2-5	2-4	—	-8	1	2
Team		136	49-101	19-46	19-22		44	34
DNP: D. Holmes II, D. Roddy, J. Pickett, K. Simpson, C. Jones

DNP: D. Holmes II, D. Roddy, J. Pickett, K. Simpson, C. Jones

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

DEN leads series 2-1

Nov 29

SA139@

DEN136

Mar 13

DEN136@

SA131

Apr 4

SA134@

DEN136today

Apr 13

DEN128@

SA118

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

244.5

High-scoring · +18.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SA-12556%

DEN+10549%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -1.5↗SpreadBet SA -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

244.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSA ↔ DEN

Biggest swing: 25pp · 4th Quarter · 6.2

V. Wembanyama

Game leader · 40 min30-point game

34 PTS · 18 REB · 7 AST

DEN

N. Jokic

Game leader · 44 min40-point game

40 PTS · 8 REB · 13 AST

How it ended

DEN beat SA 136-134. N. Jokic led the way with 40 points and 13 assists. Aaron Gordon's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (25pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DEN vs SA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SAstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

104 PTS · 37 REB · 24 AST

GS 87

Bench(5)

30 PTS · 13 REB · 5 AST

GS 25

DENstarters 79% of pts

Starters(5)

108 PTS · 33 REB · 31 AST

GS 99

Bench(5)

28 PTS · 11 REB · 3 AST

GS 20

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DEN4th Quarter · 1:24 · 122-119

+18pp→ 33% WP

De'Aaron Fox · shooting foul

DEN4th Quarter · 6.2 · 124-124

+25pp→ 47% WP

Aaron Gordon · makes 1-foot dunk (Nikola Jokic assists)

DENOT · 2:18 · 127-131

+17pp→ 80% WP

Cameron Johnson · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	T
SA	43	29	24	28	10	134
DEN	36	29	27	32	12	136

Period scoring

SA won 1 · DEN won 3

Vassell 11

Jokic 10

Johnson 6

Jokic 10

Castle 7

Braun 21

Wembanyama 12

Fox 34

Champagnie 3

Jokic 7

DEN

Shooting comparison

DEN

47%

47-101

49%

49-101

33%

15-45

3PT

41%

19-46

93%

25-27

86%

19-22

Play-by-play · 523 plays

period

event

player

OT·0.0
End of Game
SA 134·DEN 136
OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
SA 134·DEN 136
OT·0.0
(00:00) [Spurs] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
SA 134·DEN 136
OT·0.0
Dylan Harper makes 35-foot three point shot (De'Aaron Fox assists)
·
SA 134·DEN 136
+1pp
OT·3.4
Nikola Jokic makes free throw 2 of 2
SA 131·DEN 136
OT·3.4
Nuggets offensive team rebound
SA 131·DEN 135
−0.5pp
OT·3.4
Nikola Jokic misses free throw 1 of 2
SA 131·DEN 135
OT·3.4
Julian Champagnie personal take foul
SA 131·DEN 135
OT·4.1
Dylan Harper enters the game for Stephon Castle
·
SA 131·DEN 135
OT·4.1
Stephon Castle personal take foul
SA 131·DEN 135
+2pp
OT·4.8
Nuggets Full timeout
SA 131·DEN 135
OT·4.8
Nuggets defensive team rebound
SA 131·DEN 135
+1pp
OT·5.8
Victor Wembanyama misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
SA 131·DEN 135
+6pp
OT·9.8
Tim Hardaway Jr. enters the game for Jamal Murray
·
SA 131·DEN 135
OT·9.8
Spurs Full timeout
SA 131·DEN 135
OT·9.8
Nikola Jokic makes 6-foot floating jump shot (Jamal Murray assists)BIG MOMENT
·
SA 131·DEN 135
+8pp
OT·18.6
Cameron Johnson defensive rebound
·
SA 131·DEN 133
+3pp
OT·22.5
De'Aaron Fox misses 13-foot jumperBIG MOMENT
SA 131·DEN 133
+8pp
OT·32.3
Jamal Murray bad pass turnover (Victor Wembanyama steals)BIG MOMENT
·
SA 131·DEN 133
−7pp
OT·50.6
Victor Wembanyama makes finger roll layup (Stephon Castle assists)
·
SA 131·DEN 133
−3pp
OT·1:00
Nikola Jokic makes 11-foot step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
SA 129·DEN 133
+6pp
OT·1:22
De'Aaron Fox makes 16-foot step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
SA 129·DEN 131
−5pp
OT·1:34
Devin Vassell defensive rebound
SA 127·DEN 131
−2pp
OT·1:37
Aaron Gordon misses 23-foot three point jumper
SA 127·DEN 131
−4pp
OT·1:54
Jamal Murray defensive rebound
SA 127·DEN 131
+2pp
OT·1:58
Julian Champagnie misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
SA 127·DEN 131
+6pp
OT·2:17
Spurs Full timeout
SA 127·DEN 131
OT·2:18
Cameron Johnson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
SA 127·DEN 131
+17pp
OT·2:30
Christian Braun defensive rebound
SA 127·DEN 128
+2pp
OT·2:32
Julian Champagnie misses layupBIG MOMENT
SA 127·DEN 128
+7pp

Team stats

Away

Stat

DEN

Home

47-101

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

49-101

FG %

15-45

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

19-46

25-27

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

19-22

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

SA -1.5·O/U 244.5·SA -125/DEN +105

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Nikola JokicDEN · C
TOUCHES12399+
Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.896
Jamal MurrayDEN · G
TOUCHES82.296
Stephon CastleSA · G
TOUCHES71.591

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · SA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DEN vs SA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

180

projections · 155 high confidence

Points

Nikola JokicDEN
26.6± 7.0high
Victor WembanyamaSA
25.2± 4.8high
Jamal MurrayDEN
24.2± 8.1high

Rebounds

Nikola JokicDEN
12.5± 3.1high
Victor WembanyamaSA
9.9± 3.2high
Julian ChampagnieSA
5.6± 2.5high

Assists

Nikola JokicDEN
9.7± 4.5high
Jamal MurrayDEN
6.4± 1.9high
De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high

Blocks

Victor WembanyamaSA
3.0± 1.1high
Nikola JokicDEN
1.0± 1.0high
Peyton WatsonDEN
1.0± 1.1high

Steals

De'Aaron FoxSA
1.4± 1.0high
Bruce BrownDEN
1.3± 1.5high
Nikola JokicDEN
1.3± 1.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

DEN

55.3%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

57.2%

47.7%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.2%

118.2

PPG

114.9

▶

121.1

27.3

Assists / G

25.0

▶

28.7

12.8

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR