NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+23DET

DET

57-21

11693

PHI

43-35

NBASat, Apr 4FinalSeriesDET wins series 4-0VegasDET -3.5

Recap · NBA

etroit Pistons went into Philadelphia 76ers and beat them, 116–93. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

DET -3.5 cashed (won by 23). Total stayed UNDER 225.5 by 16.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

Daniss Jenkins

G · #24

22.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHI · top performer

Paul George

F · #8

15.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. HarrisF · #12	27	19	7-13	1-3	4-4	+26	4	2
D. RobinsonF · #55	23	11	4-7	3-6	—	+27	2	2
J. DurenC · #0	30	16	5-8	—	6-7	+15	7	3
A. ThompsonG · #9	25	14	7-11	—	—	+27	5	2
D. JenkinsG · #24	32	16	4-11	2-5	6-7	+25	4	14
Bench
P. ReedF · #7	18	10	4-5	0-1	2-4	+8	7	0
R. Holland IIF · #5	20	11	4-10	2-3	1-2	-1	6	0
J. GreenG · #31	6	2	1-2	—	—	-9	1	0
C. LeVertG · #8	21	7	3-6	1-2	—	-3	2	3
K. HuerterG · #27	25	5	2-9	1-6	—	-4	5	6
M. SasserG · #25	11	5	2-4	1-1	—	+5	2	1
C. LanierG · #20	2	0	0-1	0-1	—	-1	0	0
Team		116	43-87	11-28	19-24		45	33
DNP: T. Smith

DNP: T. Smith

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. GeorgeF · #8	28	20	7-14	3-5	3-4	-9	5	4
A. DrummondC · #1	18	4	2-5	0-2	—	-15	3	2
K. Oubre Jr.G · #9	24	3	1-4	1-3	—	-28	4	1
T. MaxeyG · #0	33	23	8-17	2-5	5-7	-27	1	1
V. EdgecombeG · #77	35	19	7-18	2-8	3-4	-9	6	1
Bench
T. WatfordF · #12	5	4	1-1	—	2-2	-4	1	2
M. BeauchampF · #16	3	0	—	—	—	+1	0	0
J. WalkerF · #33	5	0	—	—	—	-4	1	0
J. EdwardsF · #11	10	0	0-2	0-1	—	-13	0	0
D. BarlowF · #25	29	8	3-6	0-1	2-2	-3	2	2
A. BonaC · #30	23	10	5-5	—	—	-2	4	2
C. PaynePG · #20	9	2	1-3	0-2	—	+6	3	1
Q. GrimesG · #5	17	0	0-4	0-2	—	-8	3	1
Team		93	35-79	8-29	15-19		33	17
DNP: K. Lowry

DNP: K. Lowry

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

DET wins series 4-0

Nov 10

DET111@

PHI108

Nov 15

PHI105@

DET114

Mar 12

PHI109@

DET131

Apr 4

DET116@

PHI93today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

225.5

Standard · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DET-17063%

PHI+14241%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -3.5↗SpreadBet DET -3.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

225.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDET ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 5pp · 2nd Quarter · 4:07

DET

D. Jenkins

Game leader · 32 minDouble-double

16 PTS · 4 REB · 14 AST

PHI

P. George

Game leader · 28 min

20 PTS · 5 REB · 4 AST

How it ended

DET beat PHI 116-93. D. Jenkins led with 16 PTS, 4 REB, 14 AST. DET outscored the other side 41-31 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHI vs DET

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DETstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

76 PTS · 22 REB · 23 AST

GS 78

Bench(7)

40 PTS · 23 REB · 10 AST

GS 33

PHIstarters 74% of pts

Starters(5)

69 PTS · 19 REB · 9 AST

GS 45

Bench(8)

24 PTS · 14 REB · 8 AST

GS 18

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DET	41	30	24	21	116
PHI	31	29	21	12	93

Period scoring

DET won 4 · PHI won 0

Jenkins 8

Maxey 14

Robinson 6

Edgecombe 11

Harris 7

Maxey 9

II 4

Barlow 6

DET

PHI

Shooting comparison

DET

PHI

49%

43-87

44%

35-79

39%

11-28

3PT

28%

8-29

79%

19-24

79%

15-19

Play-by-play · 442 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DET 116·PHI 93
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DET 116·PHI 93
Q4·0.2
shot clock turnover
DET 116·PHI 93
Q4·22.2
Paul Reed defensive rebound
DET 116·PHI 93
Q4·24.8
Justin Edwards misses driving floating jump shot
DET 116·PHI 93
Q4·31.1
Jabari Walker defensive rebound
DET 116·PHI 93
Q4·34.7
Chaz Lanier misses 24-foot running jump shot
DET 116·PHI 93
Q4·39.4
Trendon Watford lost ball turnover (Ronald Holland II steals)
·
DET 116·PHI 93
Q4·52.6
Trendon Watford defensive rebound
DET 116·PHI 93
Q4·55.2
Marcus Sasser misses 16-foot step back jumpshot
DET 116·PHI 93
Q4·1:14
Dominick Barlow makes 3-foot layup (Trendon Watford assists)
·
DET 116·PHI 93
Q4·1:28
Ronald Holland II makes 26-foot three point jumper (Marcus Sasser assists)
·
DET 116·PHI 91
Q4·1:45
Dominick Barlow makes 1-foot running dunk (Trendon Watford assists)
·
DET 113·PHI 91
Q4·1:50
Paul Reed bad pass turnover (Justin Edwards steals)
·
DET 113·PHI 89
Q4·2:06
Trendon Watford makes free throw 2 of 2
DET 113·PHI 89
Q4·2:06
Chaz Lanier enters the game for Ausar Thompson
·
DET 113·PHI 88
Q4·2:06
Trendon Watford makes free throw 1 of 2
DET 113·PHI 88
Q4·2:06
Paul Reed shooting foul
DET 113·PHI 87
Q4·2:10
Paul Reed makes driving layup (Kevin Huerter assists)
·
DET 113·PHI 87
Q4·2:20
Dominick Barlow lost ball turnover (Ausar Thompson steals)
·
DET 111·PHI 87
Q4·2:31
Ausar Thompson makes two point shot (Kevin Huerter assists)
·
DET 111·PHI 87
Q4·2:53
Trendon Watford makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot
DET 109·PHI 87
Q4·3:08
Kevin Huerter enters the game for Duncan Robinson
·
DET 109·PHI 85
Q4·3:08
Marcus Sasser enters the game for Daniss Jenkins
·
DET 109·PHI 85
Q4·3:08
Ronald Holland II enters the game for Tobias Harris
·
DET 109·PHI 85
Q4·3:08
MarJon Beauchamp enters the game for Kelly Oubre Jr.
·
DET 109·PHI 85
Q4·3:08
76ers Full timeout
DET 109·PHI 85
Q4·3:08
Tobias Harris makes 1-foot two point shot (Daniss Jenkins assists)
·
DET 109·PHI 85
Q4·3:29
Daniss Jenkins defensive rebound
DET 107·PHI 85
Q4·3:31
Dominick Barlow misses 23-foot three point jumper
DET 107·PHI 85

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

43-87

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

35-79

FG %

11-28

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-29

19-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-19

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

DET -3.5·O/U 225.5·DET -170/PHI +142

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Tyrese MaxeyPHI · G
TOUCHES94.599
Jalen DurenDET · C
TS%68.898
Ausar ThompsonDET · G
DEFL3.595
Paul GeorgePHI · F
DEFL3.595
Kelly Oubre Jr.PHI · G
DEFL3.192

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHI vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

170

projections · 145 high confidence

Points

Cade CunninghamDET
26.1± 9.6high
Joel EmbiidPHI
25.3± 7.2high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
25.0± 6.5high

Rebounds

Jalen DurenDET
9.1± 3.9high
Joel EmbiidPHI
8.0± 3.5high
Ausar ThompsonDET
7.1± 3.2high

Assists

Cade CunninghamDET
8.2± 2.8high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
5.9± 1.9high
Joel EmbiidPHI
4.6± 2.6high

Blocks

Ausar ThompsonDET
1.5± 1.3high
Joel EmbiidPHI
1.3± 1.4high
Adem BonaPHI
1.1± 1.3high

Steals

Ausar ThompsonDET
2.0± 1.8high
Paul GeorgePHI
1.5± 1.1high
Cade CunninghamDET
1.4± 1.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DET

league avg

PHI

54.2%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.9%

48.0%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.0%

115.9

PPG

◀

114.9

114.3

27.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.1

14.3

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR