NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4ORL

SAC

19-55

117121

ORL

39-34

NBAThu, Mar 26FinalSeriesORL wins series 2-0VegasORL -15.5

Recap · NBA

rlando Magic held off Sacramento Kings, 121–117. Decided by 4.

SAC +15.5 cashed (ORL won by 4). Total cleared the 230.5 OVER by 7.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SAC · top performer

DeMar DeRozan

G · #10

28.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ORL · top performer

Paolo Banchero

F · #5

26.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. AchiuwaPF · #9	34	14	7-12	0-1	—	+2	9	2
M. RaynaudC · #42	39	10	4-9	0-1	2-2	-2	7	3
D. DeRozanG · #10	38	33	12-24	0-1	9-10	-5	6	11
M. MonkG · #0	32	13	5-12	3-9	—	0	2	5
D. CarterG · #22	25	14	5-12	3-7	1-2	-5	3	4
Bench
D. McDermottF · #7	12	6	2-5	2-4	—	-2	0	2
D. CardwellC · #32	16	2	1-1	—	—	-3	5	2
D. JeffriesG · #25	7	2	1-1	—	—	-1	0	0
D. PlowdenG · #29	35	23	8-12	6-10	1-2	-3	3	0
K. HayesG · #3	2	0	—	—	—	-1	0	1
Team		117	45-88	14-33	13-16		35	30
DNP: P. Baldwin Jr., N. Clifford

DNP: P. Baldwin Jr., N. Clifford

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. BancheroF · #5	38	30	11-22	1-4	7-8	+5	9	7
T. da SilvaF · #23	32	18	5-7	3-4	5-6	-2	2	2
W. Carter Jr.C · #34	35	10	3-8	0-2	4-6	0	11	0
D. BaneG · #3	35	23	6-11	3-6	8-8	+8	0	6
J. SuggsG · #4	34	8	3-8	2-5	—	-2	4	4
Bench
M. WagnerF · #21	5	0	0-2	0-1	—	-5	1	0
J. CainF · #8	22	11	5-6	1-1	—	+4	5	2
G. BitadzeC · #35	13	6	2-3	—	2-2	+4	2	0
J. CarterG · #2	14	7	3-4	1-1	—	+6	0	0
J. HowardG · #13	8	3	1-2	1-2	—	-2	1	1
J. RichardsonG · #11	5	5	1-1	1-1	2-2	+4	1	0
Team		121	40-74	13-27	28-32		36	22
DNP: N. Penda, A. Morales

DNP: N. Penda, A. Morales

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

ORL wins series 2-0

Feb 20

ORL131@

SAC94

Mar 26

SAC117@

ORL121today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ORL -15.5

Between 10 and —

Total

230.5

Standard · +4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SAC+80011%

ORL-135093%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ORL -15.5↗SpreadBet ORL -15.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

15.5

0.0 since open

Total

230.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSAC ↔ ORL

Biggest swing: 17pp · 4th Quarter · 27.4

SAC

D. DeRozan

Game leader · 38 min30-point game

33 PTS · 6 REB · 11 AST

ORL

P. Banchero

Game leader · 38 min30-point game

30 PTS · 9 REB · 7 AST

How it ended

ORL beat SAC 121-117. P. Banchero paced them with 30 PTS, 9 REB, 7 AST. ORL outscored the other side 39-30 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ORL vs SAC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SACstarters 72% of pts

Starters(5)

84 PTS · 27 REB · 25 AST

GS 73

Bench(5)

33 PTS · 8 REB · 5 AST

GS 25

ORLstarters 74% of pts

Starters(5)

89 PTS · 26 REB · 19 AST

GS 74

Bench(6)

32 PTS · 10 REB · 3 AST

GS 25

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SAC3rd Quarter · 1:10 · 87-90

+10pp→ 22% WP

Tristan · da Silva misses 3-foot two point shot

ORL4th Quarter · 27.4 · 115-119

+17pp→ 89% WP

Jalen Suggs · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)

ORL4th Quarter · 13.1 · 117-119

+10pp→ 94% WP

Malik Monk · personal foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SAC	30	29	31	27	117
ORL	39	26	28	28	121

Period scoring

SAC won 2 · ORL won 2

Carter 9

Banchero 10

DeRozan 17

Banchero 8

DeRozan 6

Tristan 9

Plowden 15

Bane 11

SAC

ORL

Shooting comparison

SAC

ORL

51%

45-88

54%

40-74

42%

14-33

3PT

48%

13-27

81%

13-16

88%

28-32

Play-by-play · 430 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SAC 117·ORL 121
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SAC 117·ORL 121
+1pp
Q4·3.8
Tristan da Silva defensive rebound
SAC 117·ORL 121
+0.6pp
Q4·4.2
Malik Monk misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
SAC 117·ORL 121
+7pp
Q4·13.1
Desmond Bane makes free throw 2 of 2
SAC 117·ORL 121
−4pp
Q4·13.1
Desmond Bane makes free throw 1 of 2
SAC 117·ORL 120
+1pp
Q4·13.1
Malik Monk personal foulBIG MOMENT
SAC 117·ORL 119
+10pp
Q4·20.6
DeMar DeRozan makes 12-foot fade away jump shotBIG MOMENT
SAC 117·ORL 119
−9pp
Q4·27.4
Tristan da Silva kicked ball violationBIG MOMENT
SAC 115·ORL 119
+5pp
Q4·27.4
Jamal Cain enters the game for Jalen Suggs
·
SAC 115·ORL 119
Q4·27.4
Kings Full timeout
SAC 115·ORL 119
Q4·27.4
Jalen Suggs makes 26-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)BIG MOMENT
·
SAC 115·ORL 119
+17pp
Q4·50.4
Daeqwon Plowden makes 26-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)BIG MOMENT
·
SAC 115·ORL 116
−15pp
Q4·59.0
DeMar DeRozan defensive rebound
SAC 112·ORL 116
−1pp
Q4·1:01
Desmond Bane misses 31-foot three point jumper
SAC 112·ORL 116
−4pp
Q4·1:13
Paolo Banchero offensive rebound
SAC 112·ORL 116
+4pp
Q4·1:15
Wendell Carter Jr. misses 34-foot three point jumper
· ·
SAC 112·ORL 116
−4pp
Q4·1:40
Malik Monk makes 1-foot running dunk (Precious Achiuwa assists)
·
SAC 112·ORL 116
−3pp
Q4·1:44
Desmond Bane lost ball turnover (Precious Achiuwa steals)
·
SAC 110·ORL 116
Q4·1:46
Precious Achiuwa vs. Desmond Bane (Malik Monk gains possession)
· ·
SAC 110·ORL 116
−2pp
Q4·2:04
Daeqwon Plowden makes free throw 1 of 1
SAC 110·ORL 116
+2pp
Q4·2:04
Jalen Suggs shooting foul
SAC 109·ORL 116
−4pp
Q4·2:04
Daeqwon Plowden makes 3-foot driving floating jump shot
SAC 109·ORL 116
−0.7pp
Q4·2:13
Maxime Raynaud offensive rebound
SAC 107·ORL 116
−0.6pp
Q4·2:15
DeMar DeRozan misses driving layup
SAC 107·ORL 116
+0.8pp
Q4·2:33
Desmond Bane makes free throw 2 of 2
SAC 107·ORL 116
−0.6pp
Q4·2:33
Desmond Bane makes free throw 1 of 2
SAC 107·ORL 115
Q4·2:33
Daeqwon Plowden shooting foul
SAC 107·ORL 114
+4pp
Q4·2:48
Kings delay of game violation
SAC 107·ORL 114
−2pp
Q4·2:49
DeMar DeRozan makes 2-foot pullup jump shot
SAC 107·ORL 114
−1pp

Team stats

SAC

Away

Stat

ORL

Home

45-88

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

40-74

FG %

14-33

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-27

13-16

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

28-32

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

ORL -15.5·O/U 230.5·SAC +800/ORL -1350

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 8 players in cohort

Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.699
Goga BitadzeORL · C
TS%70.099
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · C
CONT9.197
Jalen SuggsORL · G
DEFL3.796
Desmond BaneORL · G
DEFL2.686

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · SAC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ORL vs SAC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

175

projections · 155 high confidence

Points

Paolo BancheroORL
23.9± 9.4high
Desmond BaneORL
18.8± 7.4high
Franz WagnerORL
18.1± 4.3high

Rebounds

Domantas SabonisSAC
10.6± 3.5high
Paolo BancheroORL
8.3± 2.3high
Maxime RaynaudSAC
8.3± 2.4high

Assists

Russell WestbrookSAC
7.5± 2.7high
Paolo BancheroORL
6.0± 2.3high
DeMar DeRozanSAC
4.8± 3.7high

Blocks

Dylan CardwellSAC
1.7± 1.7high
Goga BitadzeORL
1.4± 1.2high
Keegan MurraySAC
1.4± 0.8high

Steals

Jalen SuggsORL
1.8± 1.5high
Anthony BlackORL
1.5± 1.8high
Desmond BaneORL
1.5± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

SAC

league avg

ORL

52.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

52.5%

46.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.9%

111.0

PPG

114.9

▶

114.2

25.5

Assists / G

25.0

▶

26.0

13.7

Turnovers / G

14.0

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR