NO
25-49
DET
53-20
Recap · NBA
etroit Pistons held off New Orleans Pelicans, 129–108. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
DET -4.5 cashed (won by 21). Total cleared the 225.5 OVER by 11.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NO · top performer
Zion Williamson
F · #1
21
Pts
6
Reb
2
Ast
DET · top performer
Jalen Duren
C · #0
30
Pts
10
Reb
7
Ast
NBA · New Orleans Pelicans at Detroit Pistons · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 27 | 11 | 4-10 | 3-6 | — | -8 | 0 | 4 | |
| 31 | 21 | 8-13 | — | 5-9 | -7 | 6 | 2 | |
| 17 | 4 | 2-4 | — | — | +1 | 5 | 3 | |
| 29 | 12 | 5-15 | 0-3 | 2-2 | -15 | 7 | 4 | |
| 31 | 17 | 7-15 | 3-5 | 0-2 | -10 | 1 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 15 | 8 | 4-8 | 0-3 | 0-2 | -9 | 3 | 1 | |
| 21 | 11 | 5-13 | 0-2 | 1-3 | -13 | 11 | 2 | |
| 16 | 2 | 1-3 | — | — | -15 | 4 | 1 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | -1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 22 | 9 | 3-3 | 3-3 | — | -15 | 3 | 0 | |
| 27 | 13 | 5-10 | 0-3 | 3-6 | -13 | 2 | 6 | |
| Team | 108 | 44-95 | 9-25 | 11-24 | 42 | 26 | ||
| DNP: K. Looney, J. Poole | ||||||||
DNP: K. Looney, J. Poole
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 26 | 12 | 5-12 | 1-3 | 1-1 | +9 | 9 | 7 | |
| 31 | 30 | 10-12 | — | 10-12 | +5 | 10 | 7 | |
| 34 | 22 | 9-14 | 4-7 | — | +21 | 3 | 2 | |
| 29 | 11 | 4-4 | — | 3-4 | +10 | 4 | 0 | |
| 33 | 19 | 6-12 | 5-7 | 2-2 | +21 | 2 | 9 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 14 | 8 | 3-3 | — | 2-3 | +16 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 19 | 2 | 1-6 | — | — | +9 | 7 | 4 | |
| 3 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 20 | 8 | 3-4 | 2-3 | — | +12 | 1 | 1 | |
| 16 | 7 | 3-11 | 1-4 | — | -6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 10 | 6 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-1 | +8 | 1 | 1 | |
| Team | 129 | 48-85 | 15-28 | 18-23 | 45 | 34 | ||
| DNP: D. Robinson | ||||||||
DNP: D. Robinson
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
46
FG %
56
26
Ast
34
Season series
DET wins series 2-0
DET112@NO104NO108@DET129todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
DET -4.5
Half-pt below key 5
Total
225.5
Standard · -0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
NO+18535%DET-22569%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
4.5
0.0 since open
Total
225.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 8pp · 4th Quarter · 9:44
NOZ. Williamson
FGame leader · 31 min
21 PTS · 6 REB · 2 AST
DETJ. Duren
CGame leader · 31 min30-point game
30 PTS · 10 REB · 7 AST
How it ended
DET beat NO 129-108. J. Duren paced them with 30 PTS, 10 REB, 7 AST. DET outscored the other side 37-22 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
DET vs NO
Starters vs bench
production by unitNOstarters 60% of ptsStarters(5)
65 PTS · 19 REB · 16 AST
GS 51
Bench(6)
43 PTS · 23 REB · 10 AST
GS 35
DETstarters 73% of ptsStarters(5)
94 PTS · 28 REB · 25 AST
GS 94
Bench(8)
35 PTS · 17 REB · 9 AST
GS 22
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactYves Missi · blocks Ronald Holland II 's 4-foot driving layup
Jalen Duren de · fensive rebound
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 33 | 23 | 30 | 22 | 108 |
| DET | 31 | 34 | 27 | 37 | 129 |
Period scoring
NO won 2 · DET won 2
Q1
Bey 7
Huerter 7
Q2
Murray 8
Duren 13
Q3
Jones 8
Duren 9
Q4
Matkovic 8
Huerter 8
Shooting comparison
46%
44-95
FG
56%
48-85
36%
9-25
3PT
54%
15-28
46%
11-24
FT
78%
18-23
Play-by-play · 487 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
NO 108·DET 129
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NO 108·DET 129
- Q4·19.2
Isaac Jones defensive rebound
·
NO 108·DET 129
- Q4·21.5
Isaac Jones blocks Micah Peavy 's 4-foot driving layup
· ·
NO 108·DET 129
- Q4·34.0
Tolu Smith out of bounds lost ball turnover
NO 108·DET 129
- Q4·46.5
Chaz Lanier defensive rebound
NO 108·DET 129
- Q4·50.2
Karlo Matkovic misses 24-foot three point jumper
NO 108·DET 129
- Q4·1:00
Bobi Klintman makes 6-foot two point shot (Tolu Smith assists)
·
NO 108·DET 129
- Q4·1:13
Jeremiah Fears makes running layup
NO 108·DET 127
- Q4·1:18
Derik Queen defensive rebound
NO 106·DET 127
- Q4·1:18
Ronald Holland II misses 18-foot step back jumpshot
NO 106·DET 127
- Q4·1:36
Karlo Matkovic makes tip shot
NO 106·DET 127
- Q4·1:36
Karlo Matkovic offensive rebound
NO 104·DET 127
- Q4·1:37
Derik Queen misses tip shot
NO 104·DET 127
- Q4·1:38
Derik Queen offensive rebound
NO 104·DET 127
- Q4·1:39
Derik Queen misses driving layup
NO 104·DET 127
- Q4·1:49
Tolu Smith makes tip shot
NO 104·DET 127
- Q4·1:49
Tolu Smith offensive rebound
NO 104·DET 125
- Q4·1:50
Ronald Holland II misses running layup
NO 104·DET 125
- Q4·1:56
Bobi Klintman defensive rebound
NO 104·DET 125
- Q4·1:57
Jeremiah Fears misses 11-foot step back jumpshot
NO 104·DET 125
- Q4·2:14
Tolu Smith enters the game for Paul Reed
·
NO 104·DET 125
- Q4·2:14
Paul Reed personal foul
NO 104·DET 125
- Q4·2:19
Derik Queen defensive rebound
NO 104·DET 125
- Q4·2:20
Isaac Jones misses driving floating jump shot
·
NO 104·DET 125
- Q4·2:32
Pistons offensive team rebound
NO 104·DET 125
- Q4·2:32
Chaz Lanier misses free throw 1 of 1
NO 104·DET 125
- Q4·2:32
Jordan Hawkins enters the game for Dejounte Murray
· ·
NO 104·DET 125
- Q4·2:32
Isaac Jones enters the game for Javonte Green
· ·
NO 104·DET 125
- Q4·2:32
Bobi Klintman enters the game for Daniss Jenkins
·
NO 104·DET 125
Team stats
NO
Away
Stat
DET
Home
44-95
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
48-85
46
FG %
56
9-25
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
15-28
11-24
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
18-23
26
Assists
34
15
Turnovers
17
Betting line
DET -4.5·O/U 225.5·NO +185/DET -225
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 8 players in cohort- Jalen DurenDET · CTS%68.898
Ausar ThompsonDET · GDEFL3.595
Paul ReedDET · FTS%65.091
Tobias HarrisDET · FTOUCHES58.782
Daniss JenkinsDET · GDRIVES573
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · NO favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DET vs NO.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
170
projections · 140 high confidence
Points
- Cade CunninghamDET26.1± 9.6high
- Trey Murphy IIINO20.0± 6.2high
- Jeremiah FearsNO19.9± 10.9high
Rebounds
- Jalen DurenDET9.1± 3.9high
- Derik QueenNO8.1± 5.6high
- Ausar ThompsonDET7.1± 3.2high
Assists
- Cade CunninghamDET8.2± 2.8high
- Dejounte MurrayNO6.4± 4.4low
- Jeremiah FearsNO4.2± 1.9high
Blocks
- Yves MissiNO1.8± 1.5high
- Ausar ThompsonDET1.5± 1.3high
- Jalen DurenDET1.0± 1.1high
Steals
- Ausar ThompsonDET2.0± 1.8high
- Dejounte MurrayNO1.6± 0.9low
- Jeremiah FearsNO1.5± 1.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
NO
league avg
DET
52.7%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶54.2%
46.6%
FG%
47.0
▶48.0%
115.5
PPG
114.9
115.9
25.1
Assists / G
25.0
▶27.0
13.5
Turnovers / G
14.0
14.3