NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+21DET

25-49

108129

DET

53-20

NBAThu, Mar 26FinalSeriesDET wins series 2-0VegasDET -4.5

NO · top performer

Zion Williamson

F · #1

18.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DET · top performer

Jalen Duren

C · #0

34.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNO ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 8pp · 4th Quarter · 9:44

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. JonesF · #2	27	11	4-10	3-6	—	-8	0	4
Z. WilliamsonF · #1	31	21	8-13	—	5-9	-7	6	2
D. JordanC · #9	17	4	2-4	—	—	+1	5	3
D. MurrayG · #5	29	12	5-15	0-3	2-2	-15	7	4
S. BeyG · #41	31	17	7-15	3-5	0-2	-10	1	3
Bench
K. MatkovicF · #17	15	8	4-8	0-3	0-2	-9	3	1
D. QueenC · #22	21	11	5-13	0-2	1-3	-13	11	2
Y. MissiC · #21	16	2	1-3	—	—	-15	4	1
M. PeavyG · #14	4	0	0-1	—	—	-1	0	0
J. HawkinsG · #24	22	9	3-3	3-3	—	-15	3	0
J. FearsG · #0	27	13	5-10	0-3	3-6	-13	2	6
Team		108	44-95	9-25	11-24		42	26
DNP: K. Looney, J. Poole

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. HarrisF · #12	26	12	5-12	1-3	1-1	+9	9	7
J. DurenC · #0	31	30	10-12	—	10-12	+5	10	7
K. HuerterG · #27	34	22	9-14	4-7	—	+21	3	2
A. ThompsonG · #9	29	11	4-4	—	3-4	+10	4	0
D. JenkinsG · #24	33	19	6-12	5-7	2-2	+21	2	9
Bench
P. ReedF · #7	14	8	3-3	—	2-3	+16	3	1
T. SmithF · #35	2	2	1-1	—	—	0	1	1
R. Holland IIF · #5	19	2	1-6	—	—	+9	7	4
B. KlintmanF · #34	3	2	1-1	—	—	0	1	0
I. JonesC · #13	3	0	0-1	—	—	0	1	0
J. GreenG · #31	20	8	3-4	2-3	—	+12	1	1
M. SasserG · #25	16	7	3-11	1-4	—	-6	2	1
C. LanierG · #20	10	6	2-4	2-4	0-1	+8	1	1
Team		129	48-85	15-28	18-23		45	34
DNP: D. Robinson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

DET

Home

44-95

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

48-85

FG %

9-25

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

15-28

11-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-23

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

DET wins series 2-0

Jan 22

DET112@

NO104

Mar 26

NO108@

DET129today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

225.5

Standard · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NO+18535%

DET-22569%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -4.5↗SpreadBet DET -4.5↗

Line movement · 18 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

225.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DET beat NO 129-108. J. Duren paced them with 30 PTS, 10 REB, 7 AST. DET outscored the other side 37-22 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DET vs NO

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NOstarters 60% of pts

Starters(5)

65 PTS · 19 REB · 16 AST

GS 51

Bench(6)

43 PTS · 23 REB · 10 AST

GS 35

DETstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

94 PTS · 28 REB · 25 AST

GS 94

Bench(8)

35 PTS · 17 REB · 9 AST

GS 22

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NO1st Quarter · 47.6 · 31-26

+6pp→ 41% WP

Yves Missi · blocks Ronald Holland II 's 4-foot driving layup

DET4th Quarter · 9:44 · 90-100

+8pp→ 95% WP

Jalen Duren de · fensive rebound

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NO	33	23	30	22	108
DET	31	34	27	37	129

Period scoring

NO won 2 · DET won 2

Bey 7

Huerter 7

Murray 8

Duren 13

Jones 8

Duren 9

Matkovic 8

Huerter 8

DET

Shooting comparison

DET

46%

44-95

56%

48-85

36%

9-25

3PT

54%

15-28

46%

11-24

78%

18-23

Play-by-play · 487 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NO 108·DET 129
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NO 108·DET 129
Q4·19.2
Isaac Jones defensive rebound
·
NO 108·DET 129
Q4·21.5
Isaac Jones blocks Micah Peavy 's 4-foot driving layup
· ·
NO 108·DET 129
Q4·34.0
Tolu Smith out of bounds lost ball turnover
NO 108·DET 129
Q4·46.5
Chaz Lanier defensive rebound
NO 108·DET 129
Q4·50.2
Karlo Matkovic misses 24-foot three point jumper
NO 108·DET 129
Q4·1:00
Bobi Klintman makes 6-foot two point shot (Tolu Smith assists)
·
NO 108·DET 129
Q4·1:13
Jeremiah Fears makes running layup
NO 108·DET 127
Q4·1:18
Derik Queen defensive rebound
NO 106·DET 127
Q4·1:18
Ronald Holland II misses 18-foot step back jumpshot
NO 106·DET 127
Q4·1:36
Karlo Matkovic makes tip shot
NO 106·DET 127
Q4·1:36
Karlo Matkovic offensive rebound
NO 104·DET 127
Q4·1:37
Derik Queen misses tip shot
NO 104·DET 127
Q4·1:38
Derik Queen offensive rebound
NO 104·DET 127
Q4·1:39
Derik Queen misses driving layup
NO 104·DET 127
Q4·1:49
Tolu Smith makes tip shot
NO 104·DET 127
Q4·1:49
Tolu Smith offensive rebound
NO 104·DET 125
Q4·1:50
Ronald Holland II misses running layup
NO 104·DET 125
Q4·1:56
Bobi Klintman defensive rebound
NO 104·DET 125
Q4·1:57
Jeremiah Fears misses 11-foot step back jumpshot
NO 104·DET 125
Q4·2:14
Tolu Smith enters the game for Paul Reed
·
NO 104·DET 125
Q4·2:14
Paul Reed personal foul
NO 104·DET 125
Q4·2:19
Derik Queen defensive rebound
NO 104·DET 125
Q4·2:20
Isaac Jones misses driving floating jump shot
·
NO 104·DET 125
Q4·2:32
Pistons offensive team rebound
NO 104·DET 125
Q4·2:32
Chaz Lanier misses free throw 1 of 1
NO 104·DET 125
Q4·2:32
Jordan Hawkins enters the game for Dejounte Murray
· ·
NO 104·DET 125
Q4·2:32
Isaac Jones enters the game for Javonte Green
· ·
NO 104·DET 125
Q4·2:32
Bobi Klintman enters the game for Daniss Jenkins
·
NO 104·DET 125

Betting line

DET -4.5·O/U 225.5·NO +185/DET -225

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

etroit Pistons held off New Orleans Pelicans, 129–108. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

DET -4.5 cashed (won by 21). Total cleared the 225.5 OVER by 11.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Karlo MatkovicNO · F
TS%69.698
Jalen DurenDET · C
TS%68.898
Herbert JonesNO · F
DEFL3.596
Ausar ThompsonDET · G
DEFL3.596
Zion WilliamsonNO · F
DRIVES13.796

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
32%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DET vs NO.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Cade CunninghamDET
26.1± 9.6high
Trey Murphy IIINO
20.0± 6.2high
Jeremiah FearsNO
19.9± 10.9high

Rebounds

Jalen DurenDET
9.1± 3.9high
Derik QueenNO
8.1± 5.6high
DeAndre JordanNO
6.5± 4.6low

Assists

Cade CunninghamDET
8.2± 2.8high
Dejounte MurrayNO
6.4± 4.4low
Jeremiah FearsNO
4.2± 1.9high

Blocks

Yves MissiNO
1.8± 1.5high
Jalen DurenDET
1.0± 1.1high
Derik QueenNO
1.0± 0.9high

Steals

Dejounte MurrayNO
1.6± 0.9low
Elijah HarklessDET
1.5± 1.4high
Jeremiah FearsNO
1.5± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

DET

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

54.2%

46.6%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.0%

115.5

PPG

114.9

115.9

25.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.0

13.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.3

Team pages

New Orleans PelicansDetroit Pistons

Elsewhere in the NBA

Data via ESPN · hoopR