NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+11CHA

48-26

103114

CHA

39-34

NBAThu, Mar 26FinalSeriesNY leads series 2-1VegasCHA -2.5

Recap · NBA

harlotte Hornets held off New York Knicks, 114–103.

CHA -2.5 cashed (won by 11). Total stayed UNDER 224.5 by 7.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NY · top performer

Jalen Brunson

G · #11

20.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHA · top performer

Kon Knueppel

G · #7

27.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. AnunobyF · #8	39	17	6-10	5-9	—	-1	3	2
K. TownsC · #32	22	13	5-8	1-1	2-2	-18	3	2
J. HartG · #3	39	16	7-11	2-4	—	-15	7	4
M. BridgesG · #25	32	14	6-12	2-5	—	-6	0	2
J. BrunsonG · #11	40	26	10-23	0-6	6-6	-6	2	13
Bench
M. DiawaraF · #51	13	5	2-6	1-4	0-1	-2	1	1
M. RobinsonC · #23	26	4	2-2	—	—	+8	6	1
J. ClarksonG · #00	18	8	4-8	—	—	-1	1	1
J. AlvaradoG · #5	5	0	0-2	—	—	-4	0	0
T. KolekG · #13	6	0	—	—	—	-10	1	0
Team		103	42-82	11-29	8-9		24	26
DNP: J. Sochan, P. Dadiet, A. Hukporti

DNP: J. Sochan, P. Dadiet, A. Hukporti

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BridgesF · #0	32	17	8-17	0-6	1-1	+12	5	3
M. DiabateF · #14	30	2	1-2	—	0-2	+15	5	3
B. MillerF · #24	33	21	7-12	4-8	3-3	+11	8	3
L. BallG · #1	36	22	7-14	4-9	4-4	+3	5	6
K. KnueppelG · #7	37	26	9-14	6-10	2-4	+15	11	8
Bench
G. WilliamsF · #2	15	5	1-2	1-2	2-2	-1	1	1
R. KalkbrennerC · #11	18	4	2-2	—	—	-4	4	1
C. WhiteG · #3	23	17	6-13	1-5	4-4	+7	3	2
J. GreenG · #10	2	0	—	—	—	+1	0	0
S. JamesG · #4	14	0	0-2	0-1	—	-4	1	1
Team		114	41-78	16-41	16-20		43	28
DNP: X. Tillman, P. Connaughton, T. Mann

DNP: X. Tillman, P. Connaughton, T. Mann

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

NY leads series 2-1

Nov 27

NY129@

CHA101

Dec 4

CHA104@

NY119

Mar 26

NY103@

CHA114today

Apr 12

CHA110@

NY96

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHA -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

224.5

Standard · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NY+11048%

CHA-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHA -2.5↗SpreadBet CHA -2.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

224.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNY ↔ CHA

Biggest swing: 9pp · 3rd Quarter · 9:33

J. Brunson

Game leader · 40 minDouble-double

26 PTS · 2 REB · 13 AST

CHA

K. Knueppel

Game leader · 37 minDouble-double

26 PTS · 11 REB · 8 AST

How it ended

CHA beat NY 114-103. K. Knueppel paced them with 26 PTS, 11 REB, 8 AST. CHA outscored the other side 27-19 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHA vs NY

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NYstarters 83% of pts

Starters(5)

86 PTS · 15 REB · 23 AST

GS 71

Bench(5)

17 PTS · 9 REB · 3 AST

GS 10

CHAstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

88 PTS · 34 REB · 23 AST

GS 80

Bench(5)

26 PTS · 9 REB · 5 AST

GS 16

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NY2nd Quarter · 5:31 · 45-48

+6pp→ 40% WP

OG Anunoby · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)

NY3rd Quarter · 9:33 · 57-68

+9pp→ 17% WP

Brandon Miller · offensive foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NY	36	19	21	27	103
CHA	38	27	29	20	114

Period scoring

NY won 1 · CHA won 3

Brunson 17

Miller 10

Anunoby 11

Bridges 11

Towns 7

Knueppel 11

Hart 12

Miller 5

CHA

Shooting comparison

CHA

51%

42-82

53%

41-78

38%

11-29

3PT

39%

16-41

89%

8-9

80%

16-20

Play-by-play · 422 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 103·CHA 114
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 103·CHA 114
Q4·11.2
Kon Knueppel defensive rebound
NY 103·CHA 114
Q4·13.5
Josh Hart misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
NY 103·CHA 114
Q4·20.4
LaMelo Ball makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 103·CHA 114
Q4·20.4
LaMelo Ball makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 103·CHA 113
Q4·20.4
Mitchell Robinson personal foul
NY 103·CHA 112
Q4·26.9
Josh Hart makes driving layup (OG Anunoby assists)
·
NY 103·CHA 112
Q4·30.0
OG Anunoby offensive rebound
NY 101·CHA 112
Q4·32.5
Jalen Brunson misses driving floating jump shot
NY 101·CHA 112
Q4·40.5
Miles Bridges makes 1-foot driving dunk
·
NY 101·CHA 112
Q4·40.7
Miles Bridges offensive rebound
·
NY 101·CHA 110
Q4·42.6
Miles Bridges misses 22-foot three point jumper
·
NY 101·CHA 110
Q4·52.7
Sion James offensive rebound
NY 101·CHA 110
+0.6pp
Q4·54.7
LaMelo Ball misses 26-foot three point jumper
NY 101·CHA 110
Q4·1:17
Josh Hart makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot
NY 101·CHA 110
−0.6pp
Q4·1:19
Josh Hart defensive rebound
NY 98·CHA 110
Q4·1:21
Kon Knueppel misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot
NY 98·CHA 110
Q4·1:45
OG Anunoby bad pass turnover (Moussa Diabate steals)
·
NY 98·CHA 110
+0.7pp
Q4·2:02
LaMelo Ball makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 98·CHA 110
Q4·2:02
Sion James enters the game for Coby White
·
NY 98·CHA 109
Q4·2:02
LaMelo Ball makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 98·CHA 109
Q4·2:02
Jalen Brunson personal foul
NY 98·CHA 108
+1pp
Q4·2:20
(02:20) [Knicks] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL REPLAYCENTER)
NY 98·CHA 108
−0.9pp
Q4·2:20
Josh Hart makes 27-foot three point jumper (Mitchell Robinson assists)
·
NY 98·CHA 108
−1pp
Q4·2:22
Mitchell Robinson offensive rebound
NY 95·CHA 108
Q4·2:24
Jalen Brunson misses driving floating jump shot
NY 95·CHA 108
Q4·2:35
OG Anunoby defensive rebound
NY 95·CHA 108
Q4·2:37
LaMelo Ball misses driving layup
NY 95·CHA 108
Q4·3:04
Josh Hart makes 21-foot step back jumpshot (Jalen Brunson assists)
·
NY 95·CHA 108

Team stats

Away

Stat

CHA

Home

42-82

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-78

FG %

11-29

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-41

8-9

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-20

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

CHA -2.5·O/U 224.5·NY +110/CHA -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 8 players in cohort

Jalen BrunsonNY · G
TOUCHES89.699
Josh HartNY · G
DEFL4.197
OG AnunobyNY · F
CONT8.496
Mitchell RobinsonNY · C
TS%67.695
Karl-Anthony TownsNY · C
CONT7.694

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHA vs NY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

180

projections · 160 high confidence

Points

Jalen BrunsonNY
27.4± 9.6high
LaMelo BallCHA
22.2± 8.0high
Brandon MillerCHA
18.8± 5.5high

Rebounds

Karl-Anthony TownsNY
10.8± 3.1high
Moussa DiabateCHA
8.8± 2.9high
Josh HartNY
8.4± 3.0high

Assists

LaMelo BallCHA
7.3± 2.5high
Jalen BrunsonNY
6.2± 3.2high
Josh HartNY
4.6± 1.9high

Blocks

Ryan KalkbrennerCHA
1.3± 1.3high
OG AnunobyNY
1.0± 1.0high
Moussa DiabateCHA
0.9± 1.1high

Steals

Josh HartNY
1.5± 1.4high
OG AnunobyNY
1.5± 1.3high
Jalen BrunsonNY
1.2± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

CHA

55.9%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

55.0%

48.0%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.9%

116.4

PPG

114.9

115.8

27.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

26.2

12.7

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.4

Data via ESPN · hoopR