NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4DET

DET

26-9

114110

CLE

20-17

NBASun, Jan 4FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCLE -3.5

DET · top performer

Daniss Jenkins

G · #24

22.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CLE · top performer

Donovan Mitchell

G · #45

22.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDET ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 35pp · 4th Quarter · 11.7

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. RobinsonF · #55	30	12	5-11	2-6	—	+5	2	3
P. ReedF · #7	30	8	4-9	0-1	—	+1	8	4
I. StewartF · #28	31	8	4-7	0-1	—	-6	3	2
C. CunninghamG · #2	37	27	7-22	2-5	11-11	-4	6	7
A. ThompsonG · #9	22	8	4-9	0-1	—	+2	8	2
Bench
R. Holland IIF · #5	18	8	2-7	1-6	3-3	-4	10	0
J. GreenG · #31	24	11	3-9	3-6	2-2	+2	4	1
M. SasserG · #25	3	0	0-2	0-1	—	-1	1	1
J. IveyG · #23	19	7	3-9	1-6	—	+14	2	0
D. JenkinsG · #24	25	25	7-10	6-7	5-5	+11	1	5
Team		114	39-95	15-40	21-21		45	25
DNP: T. Smith, W. Moore Jr., C. Lanier

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
E. MobleyC · #4	33	15	5-9	2-3	3-3	+8	4	5
D. MitchellG · #45	33	30	10-21	3-10	7-9	+10	6	3
S. MerrillG · #5	27	15	5-8	5-7	—	0	3	2
D. GarlandG · #10	32	16	7-15	0-7	2-2	-1	2	6
J. TysonG · #20	25	6	2-9	1-5	1-2	-12	7	3
Bench
D. HunterF · #12	24	14	3-8	2-5	6-6	+8	6	0
N. TomlinF · #35	18	5	1-4	0-1	3-4	-4	4	0
T. BryantC · #3	15	7	1-2	1-2	4-4	-12	4	1
L. BallG · #2	10	0	0-1	0-1	—	-18	2	2
C. Porter Jr.G · #9	23	2	1-3	0-1	—	+1	6	1
Team		110	35-80	14-42	26-30		44	23
DNP: J. Allen, T. Proctor

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

39-95

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

35-80

FG %

15-40

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-42

21-21

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

26-30

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

CLE wins series 4-3

May 5

CLE101@

DET111

May 7

CLE97@

DET107

May 9

DET109@

CLE116

May 12

DET103@

CLE112

May 14

CLE117@

DET113

May 15

DET115@

CLE94

May 18

CLE125@

DET94

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

239.5

High-scoring · +13.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DET+13043%

CLE-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -3.5↗SpreadBet CLE -3.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

239.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DET beat CLE 114-110. D. Jenkins paced them with 25 PTS, 1 REB, 5 AST. DET outscored the other side 47-28 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CLE vs DET

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DETstarters 55% of pts

Starters(5)

63 PTS · 27 REB · 18 AST

GS 51

Bench(5)

51 PTS · 18 REB · 7 AST

GS 40

CLEstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

82 PTS · 22 REB · 19 AST

GS 67

Bench(5)

28 PTS · 22 REB · 4 AST

GS 27

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DET2nd Quarter · 4:12 · 41-44

+16pp→ 40% WP

Thomas Bryant · makes free throw 2 of 2

DET4th Quarter · 36.0 · 108-106

+16pp→ 75% WP

Donovan Mitchell · bad pass turnover (Isaiah Stewart steals)

DET4th Quarter · 11.7 · 110-106

+35pp→ 94% WP

Darius Garland · misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DET	19	47	21	27	114
CLE	28	28	26	28	110

Period scoring

DET won 1 · CLE won 3

Cunningham 8

Merrill 9

Jenkins 21

Garland 6

Cunningham 11

Mitchell 13

Stewart 6

Mitchell 10

DET

CLE

Shooting comparison

DET

CLE

41%

39-95

44%

35-80

38%

15-40

3PT

33%

14-42

100%

21-21

87%

26-30

Play-by-play · 502 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DET 114·CLE 110
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DET 114·CLE 110
Q4·0.0
Cavaliers offensive team rebound
DET 114·CLE 110
Q4·0.0
Donovan Mitchell misses heave jump shot
DET 114·CLE 110
−3pp
Q4·3.2
Daniss Jenkins makes free throw 2 of 2
DET 114·CLE 110
+2pp
Q4·3.2
Daniss Jenkins makes free throw 1 of 2
DET 113·CLE 110
Q4·3.2
De'Andre Hunter enters the game for Sam Merrill
·
DET 112·CLE 110
Q4·3.2
Sam Merrill personal foul
DET 112·CLE 110
−4pp
Q4·3.8
Sam Merrill makes 25-foot three point jumper (Lonzo Ball assists)
·
DET 112·CLE 110
+4pp
Q4·5.7
Darius Garland enters the game for Thomas Bryant
·
DET 112·CLE 107
Q4·5.7
Lonzo Ball enters the game for De'Andre Hunter
·
DET 112·CLE 107
Q4·5.7
Cavaliers Full timeout
DET 112·CLE 107
Q4·5.7
Daniss Jenkins makes free throw 2 of 2
DET 112·CLE 107
+1pp
Q4·5.7
Thomas Bryant enters the game for Darius Garland
·
DET 111·CLE 107
Q4·5.7
Ausar Thompson enters the game for Duncan Robinson
·
DET 111·CLE 107
Q4·5.7
Daniss Jenkins makes free throw 1 of 2
DET 111·CLE 107
Q4·5.7
Sam Merrill personal foul
DET 110·CLE 107
Q4·6.6
Sam Merrill personal foulBIG MOMENT
DET 110·CLE 107
−5pp
Q4·7.6
Pistons Full timeout
DET 110·CLE 107
Q4·7.6
Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2
DET 110·CLE 107
−0.6pp
Q4·7.6
Duncan Robinson enters the game for Ausar Thompson
·
DET 110·CLE 106
Q4·7.6
Cavaliers offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
DET 110·CLE 106
−5pp
Q4·7.6
Donovan Mitchell misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
DET 110·CLE 106
−6pp
Q4·7.6
Isaiah Stewart shooting foulBIG MOMENT
DET 110·CLE 106
+10pp
Q4·9.7
Evan Mobley offensive rebound
DET 110·CLE 106
+3pp
Q4·11.7
Darius Garland misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
DET 110·CLE 106
−35pp
Q4·17.2
Cavaliers Full timeout
DET 110·CLE 106
Q4·17.2
Ausar Thompson makes tip shotBIG MOMENT
DET 110·CLE 106
−7pp
Q4·17.2
Ausar Thompson offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
DET 108·CLE 106
−11pp
Q4·17.2
Daniss Jenkins misses 9-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
DET 108·CLE 106
+6pp

Betting line

CLE -3.5·O/U 239.5·DET +130/CLE -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

etroit Pistons went into Cleveland Cavaliers and beat them, 114–110. Decided by 4.

DET +3.5 cashed (CLE lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 239.5 by 15.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Cade CunninghamDET · G
TOUCHES9799+
Donovan MitchellCLE · G
USG%31.998
Evan MobleyCLE · C
CONT9.498
Ausar ThompsonDET · G
DEFL3.596
Darius GarlandLAC · G
DRIVES13.896

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CLE vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Donovan MitchellCLE
27.5± 7.3high
Cade CunninghamDET
26.1± 9.6high
James HardenCLE
19.6± 6.6high

Rebounds

Jalen DurenDET
9.1± 3.9high
Evan MobleyCLE
8.0± 3.5high
Jarrett AllenCLE
7.3± 2.3high

Assists

Cade CunninghamDET
8.2± 2.8high
James HardenCLE
5.9± 2.8high
Donovan MitchellCLE
3.9± 2.0high

Blocks

Evan MobleyCLE
2.1± 1.3high
Jarrett AllenCLE
1.3± 0.7high
Jalen DurenDET
1.0± 1.1high

Steals

Donovan MitchellCLE
1.5± 1.8high
James HardenCLE
1.4± 1.2high
Cade CunninghamDET
1.4± 1.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DET

league avg

CLE

54.2%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.6%

48.0%

FG%

47.0

47.7%

115.9

PPG

114.9

▶

117.4

27.0

Assists / G

25.0

27.1

14.3

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.8

Team pages

Detroit PistonsCleveland Cavaliers

Elsewhere in the NBA

Data via ESPN · hoopR