NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+26MIN

MIN

23-13

141115

WSH

9-25

NBASun, Jan 4FinalSeriesMIN wins series 2-0VegasMIN -10.5

MIN · top performer

Anthony Edwards

G · #5

27.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WSH · top performer

CJ McCollum

G · #3

14.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIN ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 6pp · 2nd Quarter · 6:58

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. RandleF · #30	25	22	9-15	1-3	3-5	+16	3	4
J. McDanielsF · #3	22	12	3-4	—	6-6	+14	5	5
R. GobertC · #27	29	18	8-10	—	2-2	+32	14	0
D. DiVincenzoG · #0	23	5	2-10	1-9	—	+28	4	3
A. EdwardsG · #5	30	35	14-21	6-10	1-4	+29	6	3
Bench
J. InglesF · #7	8	2	1-1	—	—	-7	2	0
L. MillerF · #33	11	6	3-7	0-3	—	-11	3	0
N. ReidC · #11	20	9	4-8	0-2	1-2	+19	7	3
M. ConleyG · #10	13	7	2-4	2-4	1-1	+10	2	3
J. ClarkG · #22	28	12	4-6	0-1	4-5	+19	2	3
J. JuzangG · #9	9	6	3-5	0-2	—	-9	1	0
B. HylandG · #8	15	7	2-5	1-3	2-2	+1	2	5
R. DillinghamG · #4	7	0	0-2	—	—	-11	0	0
Team		141	55-98	11-37	20-27		51	29

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. MiddletonF · #22	18	10	4-6	2-4	—	-6	2	1
A. SarrC · #20	26	7	3-10	1-2	—	-16	3	4
C. McCollumG · #3	22	20	8-12	3-4	1-1	-8	3	2
B. CoulibalyG · #0	28	6	3-6	0-2	—	-24	4	1
T. JohnsonG · #12	27	13	3-11	1-5	6-6	-6	3	3
Bench
A. GillF · #16	5	4	2-2	—	—	+7	2	0
M. Bagley IIIF · #35	14	6	3-3	—	—	-23	3	0
C. KispertF · #24	18	13	4-8	2-5	3-3	-26	1	0
J. ChampagnieF · #9	18	6	3-6	0-2	0-1	-23	6	0
T. VukcevicF · #00	13	8	3-5	0-2	2-2	+5	2	2
M. BranhamG · #8	7	4	1-2	1-2	1-2	+11	1	0
B. CarringtonG · #7	17	7	2-9	1-6	2-2	-25	0	4
W. RileyG · #27	14	6	2-3	—	2-2	-2	3	1
AJ JohnsonG · #4	13	5	2-5	1-2	—	+6	2	3
Team		115	43-88	12-36	17-19		35	21

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

55-98

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-88

FG %

11-37

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-36

20-27

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-19

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIN wins series 2-0

Nov 20

WSH109@

MIN120

Jan 4

MIN141@

WSH115today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -10.5

Half-pt above key 10

Total

240.5

High-scoring · +14.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIN-42581%

WSH+33023%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -10.5↗SpreadBet MIN -10.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

10.5

0.0 since open

Total

240.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat WSH 141-115. A. Edwards led the way with 35 points and 6 rebounds. MIN outscored the other side 35-21 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

WSH vs MIN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MINstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

92 PTS · 32 REB · 15 AST

GS 89

Bench(8)

49 PTS · 19 REB · 14 AST

GS 43

WSHstarters 49% of pts

Starters(5)

56 PTS · 15 REB · 11 AST

GS 39

Bench(9)

59 PTS · 20 REB · 10 AST

GS 45

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIN	38	35	35	33	141
WSH	28	30	21	36	115

Period scoring

MIN won 3 · WSH won 1

Edwards 16

Sarr 7

Gobert 12

McCollum 7

Edwards 19

Sarr 13

Hyland 7

Johnson 8

MIN

WSH

Shooting comparison

MIN

WSH

56%

55-98

49%

43-88

30%

11-37

3PT

33%

12-36

74%

20-27

89%

17-19

Play-by-play · 475 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 141·WSH 115
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 141·WSH 115
Q4·15.8
Joe Ingles defensive rebound
MIN 141·WSH 115
Q4·17.8
AJ Johnson misses driving layup
·
MIN 141·WSH 115
Q4·26.7
Jaylen Clark makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 141·WSH 115
Q4·26.7
Jaylen Clark makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 140·WSH 115
Q4·26.7
AJ Johnson shooting foul
·
MIN 139·WSH 115
Q4·43.2
Malaki Branham makes 26-foot running jump shot (AJ Johnson assists)
· ·
MIN 139·WSH 115
Q4·48.1
Rob Dillingham lost ball turnover (Anthony Gill steals)
·
MIN 139·WSH 112
Q4·54.7
AJ Johnson makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot
·
MIN 139·WSH 112
Q4·57.2
AJ Johnson defensive rebound
·
MIN 139·WSH 109
Q4·59.9
Johnny Juzang misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
MIN 139·WSH 109
Q4·1:15
Leonard Miller defensive rebound
MIN 139·WSH 109
Q4·1:18
Malaki Branham misses free throw 2 of 2
MIN 139·WSH 109
Q4·1:18
Malaki Branham makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 139·WSH 109
Q4·1:18
Rob Dillingham shooting foul
MIN 139·WSH 108
Q4·1:22
Malaki Branham defensive rebound
MIN 139·WSH 108
Q4·1:26
Leonard Miller misses 23-foot three point jumper
MIN 139·WSH 108
Q4·1:34
Will Riley out of bounds lost ball turnover
MIN 139·WSH 108
Q4·1:35
Will Riley defensive rebound
MIN 139·WSH 108
Q4·1:37
Tristan Vukcevic blocks Rob Dillingham 's 6-foot driving layup
·
MIN 139·WSH 108
Q4·1:45
Anthony Gill makes 1-foot layup (Tristan Vukcevic assists)
·
MIN 139·WSH 108
Q4·1:57
Leonard Miller makes 3-foot reverse layup (Jaylen Clark assists)
·
MIN 139·WSH 106
Q4·2:10
Leonard Miller defensive rebound
MIN 137·WSH 106
Q4·2:12
Will Riley misses running pullup jump shot
MIN 137·WSH 106
Q4·2:17
Will Riley defensive rebound
MIN 137·WSH 106
Q4·2:21
Leonard Miller misses 26-foot three point jumper
MIN 137·WSH 106
Q4·2:35
Tristan Vukcevic kicked ball violation
MIN 137·WSH 106
Q4·2:52
Anthony Gill makes two point shot
MIN 137·WSH 106
Q4·2:54
Anthony Gill offensive rebound
MIN 137·WSH 104

Betting line

MIN -10.5·O/U 240.5·MIN -425/WSH +330

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

innesota Timberwolves went into Washington Wizards and beat them, 141–115. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

MIN -10.5 cashed (won by 26). Total cleared the 240.5 OVER by 15.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Rudy GobertMIN · C
CONT1299+
Alex SarrWSH · C
CONT9.498
Anthony EdwardsMIN · G
USG%31.397
Anthony GillWSH · F
TS%68.297
Bilal CoulibalyWSH · G
DEFL3.194

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

WSH vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Anthony EdwardsMIN
23.7± 9.4high
LaMelo BallMIN
22.2± 8.0high
Anthony DavisWSH
20.5± 9.2high

Rebounds

Anthony DavisWSH
11.3± 4.3high
Julian ReeseWSH
10.5± 6.4low
Rudy GobertMIN
10.1± 3.9high

Assists

LaMelo BallMIN
7.3± 2.5high
Bub CarringtonWSH
5.1± 1.9high
Ayo DosunmuMIN
3.9± 3.1high

Blocks

Anthony DavisWSH
1.7± 1.5high
Alex SarrWSH
1.6± 1.4high
Rudy GobertMIN
1.4± 1.2high

Steals

Julian ReeseWSH
1.4± 1.7low
Leaky BlackWSH
1.4± 1.7medium
Bilal CoulibalyWSH
1.3± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIN

league avg

WSH

55.1%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.5%

47.6%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.3%

116.8

PPG

◀

114.9

112.9

25.7

Assists / G

◀

25.0

14.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR