NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+17MIL

MIL

16-20

11598

SAC

8-28

NBASun, Jan 4FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasMIL -6.5

MIL · top performer

Giannis Antetokounmpo

F · #34

30.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SAC · top performer

Zach LaVine

G · #8

17.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIL ↔ SAC

Biggest swing: 14pp · 2nd Quarter · 9:08

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
G. AntetokounmpoF · #34	32	37	13-17	—	11-13	+17	11	1
M. TurnerC · #3	32	15	5-13	3-9	2-2	+29	5	0
K. Porter Jr.G · #7	40	25	8-15	1-2	8-8	+16	4	10
A. GreenG · #20	32	1	0-6	0-6	1-1	+25	5	1
R. RollinsG · #13	34	12	4-11	2-5	2-2	+18	6	3
Bench
B. PortisF · #9	16	9	4-11	0-3	1-1	-12	11	0
K. KuzmaF · #18	18	3	1-4	0-3	1-2	+1	4	4
G. HarrisG · #11	15	0	0-2	0-1	—	-4	1	1
G. Trent Jr.G · #5	22	13	4-8	4-8	1-1	-5	1	3
Team		115	39-87	10-37	27-30		48	23
DNP: T. Antetokounmpo, J. Sims, A. Coffey, A. Jackson Jr., C. Anthony

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. AchiuwaPF · #9	15	4	2-3	—	—	-13	3	0
K. MurrayF · #13	27	12	6-13	0-3	—	-16	3	0
M. RaynaudC · #42	24	6	3-5	0-1	—	-22	8	1
R. WestbrookG · #18	38	21	5-16	1-8	10-12	-11	6	3
D. DeRozanG · #10	29	11	4-11	0-1	3-7	-22	4	3
Bench
D. EubanksF · #19	21	4	2-5	0-1	—	+7	4	0
D. SchroderG · #17	26	13	3-9	2-5	5-5	+2	3	5
Z. LaVineG · #8	36	20	6-12	2-4	6-6	-6	3	4
K. EllisG · #23	5	0	0-1	0-1	—	-9	2	0
N. CliffordG · #5	19	7	3-5	0-1	1-2	+5	2	1
Team		98	34-80	5-25	25-32		38	17
DNP: D. McDermott, D. Saric, M. Monk, D. Carter

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

SAC

Home

39-87

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

34-80

FG %

10-37

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

5-25

27-30

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

25-32

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 1

SAC135@

MIL133

Jan 5

MIL115@

SAC98today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIL -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

227.5

Standard · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIL-23870%

SAC+19534%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIL -6.5↗SpreadBet MIL -6.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

227.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIL beat SAC 115-98. G. Antetokounmpo led the way with 37 points and 11 rebounds. MIL outscored the other side 34-18 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SAC vs MIL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MILstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

90 PTS · 31 REB · 15 AST

GS 69

Bench(4)

25 PTS · 17 REB · 8 AST

GS 19

SACstarters 55% of pts

Starters(5)

54 PTS · 24 REB · 7 AST

GS 36

Bench(5)

44 PTS · 14 REB · 10 AST

GS 38

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SAC2nd Quarter · 9:08 · 37-30

+14pp→ 22% WP

Bobby Portis · misses 1-foot tip shot

MIL3rd Quarter · 4:01 · 81-56

+7pp→ 100% WP

Keegan Murray · out of bounds bad pass turnover

MIL4th Quarter · 8:22 · 88-85

+8pp→ 81% WP

Dennis Schroder · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIL	28	34	23	30	115
SAC	26	18	25	29	98

Period scoring

MIL won 3 · SAC won 1

Antetokounmpo 6

DeRozan 8

Antetokounmpo 9

Raynaud 10

Antetokounmpo 9

Westbrook 9

Antetokounmpo 11

Jr. 19

MIL

SAC

Shooting comparison

MIL

SAC

45%

39-87

43%

34-80

27%

10-37

3PT

20%

5-25

90%

27-30

78%

25-32

Play-by-play · 466 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIL 115·SAC 98
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIL 115·SAC 98
Q4·21.3
Zach LaVine makes free throw 2 of 2
MIL 115·SAC 98
Q4·21.3
Zach LaVine makes free throw 1 of 2
MIL 115·SAC 97
Q4·21.3
Myles Turner shooting foul
MIL 115·SAC 96
Q4·27.6
Ryan Rollins makes free throw 2 of 2
MIL 115·SAC 96
Q4·27.6
Ryan Rollins makes free throw 1 of 2
MIL 114·SAC 96
Q4·27.6
Russell Westbrook shooting foul
MIL 113·SAC 96
Q4·28.3
Ryan Rollins offensive rebound
MIL 113·SAC 96
Q4·31.7
Kyle Kuzma misses 28-foot three point jumper
MIL 113·SAC 96
Q4·50.7
Ryan Rollins defensive rebound
MIL 113·SAC 96
Q4·53.8
Dennis Schroder misses 27-foot three point jumper
MIL 113·SAC 96
Q4·1:02
Myles Turner out of bounds lost ball turnover
MIL 113·SAC 96
Q4·1:04
DeMar DeRozan kicked ball violation
MIL 113·SAC 96
Q4·1:14
Myles Turner offensive rebound
MIL 113·SAC 96
Q4·1:16
Ryan Rollins misses 25-foot three point jumper
MIL 113·SAC 96
Q4·1:27
AJ Green offensive rebound
MIL 113·SAC 96
Q4·1:29
Myles Turner misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
MIL 113·SAC 96
Q4·1:39
Dennis Schroder makes 25-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)
·
MIL 113·SAC 96
Q4·1:41
Drew Eubanks offensive rebound
MIL 113·SAC 93
Q4·1:43
Zach LaVine misses two point shot
MIL 113·SAC 93
Q4·1:53
Myles Turner makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)
·
MIL 113·SAC 93
Q4·2:08
Bucks defensive team rebound
MIL 110·SAC 93
Q4·2:08
Myles Turner vs. Drew Eubanks (Ryan Rollins gains possession)
· ·
MIL 110·SAC 93
Q4·2:09
Drew Eubanks misses 9-foot hook shot
MIL 110·SAC 93
Q4·2:21
DeMar DeRozan makes technical free throw
MIL 110·SAC 93
Q4·2:21
Thanasis Antetokounmpo technical foul
·
MIL 110·SAC 92
Q4·2:21
Kyle Kuzma enters the game for Giannis Antetokounmpo
· ·
MIL 110·SAC 92
Q4·2:21
Bucks Full timeout
MIL 110·SAC 92
Q4·2:26
Myles Turner makes 20-foot jumper (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)
·
MIL 110·SAC 92

Betting line

MIL -6.5·O/U 227.5·MIL -238/SAC +195

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ilwaukee Bucks went into Sacramento Kings and beat them, 115–98.

MIL -6.5 cashed (won by 17). Total stayed UNDER 227.5 by 14.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA · F
USG%36.699+
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL · G
DRIVES16.799
Ryan RollinsMIL · G
DEFL4.098
Myles TurnerMIL · C
CONT8.195
Keegan MurraySAC · F
CONT7.894

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SAC vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

150

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Ryan RollinsMIL
19.5± 7.1high
Tyler HerroMIL
19.2± 8.0high
DeMar DeRozanSAC
18.0± 12.6high

Rebounds

Domantas SabonisSAC
10.6± 3.5high
Maxime RaynaudSAC
8.3± 2.4high
Precious AchiuwaSAC
8.2± 4.6high

Assists

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
6.9± 2.8high
Ryan RollinsMIL
5.5± 1.9high
DeMar DeRozanSAC
4.8± 3.7high

Blocks

Dylan CardwellSAC
1.7± 1.7high
Keegan MurraySAC
1.4± 0.8high
Drew EubanksSAC
0.7± 0.8high

Steals

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
2.1± 1.4high
Ryan RollinsMIL
1.5± 1.1high
Killian HayesSAC
1.2± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIL

league avg

SAC

56.5%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.5%

47.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.7%

110.6

PPG

114.9

111.0

25.8

Assists / G

25.0

25.5

14.5

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR