NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6LAL

MEM

15-20

114120

LAL

22-11

NBASun, Jan 4FinalSeriesLAL win series 3-0VegasLAL -5.5

MEM · top performer

Jock Landale

C · #31

15.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LAL · top performer

Luka Doncic

G · #77

31.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMEM ↔ LAL

Biggest swing: 17pp · 1st Quarter · 6:41

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. Jackson Jr.F · #8	34	14	6-14	2-4	—	-2	3	1
C. CowardF · #23	13	16	6-9	2-3	2-2	+13	8	1
J. WellsF · #0	25	23	8-16	3-11	4-4	-13	1	2
J. LandaleC · #31	29	13	5-9	1-2	2-2	-5	10	3
C. SpencerG · #24	34	5	1-10	0-5	3-3	0	2	9
Bench
S. AldamaF · #7	31	12	4-13	0-4	4-6	+3	10	7
GG JacksonF · #45	22	11	4-10	1-5	2-2	0	6	1
C. KolokoC · #35	13	6	3-6	0-1	—	-5	2	0
K. Caldwell-PopeG · #3	25	7	3-8	1-5	—	-13	2	0
J. SmallG · #10	16	7	2-5	0-1	3-3	-8	3	5
Team		114	42-100	10-41	20-22		47	29
DNP: J. Konchar, V. Williams Jr.

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	37	26	8-14	2-7	8-10	+6	7	10
J. LaRaviaF · #12	35	26	9-16	4-10	4-4	+15	5	4
D. AytonC · #5	34	15	6-8	—	3-6	+6	8	1
M. SmartG · #36	31	6	1-5	0-3	4-4	+3	1	4
L. DoncicG · #77	39	36	10-20	4-10	12-13	+9	9	8
Bench
J. VanderbiltF · #2	22	7	3-7	0-4	1-2	-3	7	3
D. KnechtF · #4	13	3	1-5	1-4	—	0	2	0
J. HayesC · #11	14	1	0-1	—	1-2	0	6	0
N. Smith Jr.G · #20	15	0	0-4	0-3	—	-6	0	0
Team		120	38-80	11-41	33-41		45	30
DNP: M. Kleber, G. Vincent, B. James

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MEM

Away

Stat

LAL

Home

42-100

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

38-80

FG %

10-41

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-41

20-22

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

33-41

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LAL win series 3-0

Nov 1

LAL117@

MEM112

Jan 3

MEM121@

LAL128

Jan 5

MEM114@

LAL120today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAL -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

238.5

High-scoring · +12.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MEM+18036%

LAL-21869%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAL -5.5↗SpreadBet LAL -5.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

238.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAL beat MEM 120-114. L. Doncic led the way with 36 points and 9 rebounds. LAL outscored the other side 37-27 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LAL vs MEM

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MEMstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

71 PTS · 24 REB · 16 AST

GS 52

Bench(5)

43 PTS · 23 REB · 13 AST

GS 35

LALstarters 91% of pts

Starters(5)

109 PTS · 30 REB · 27 AST

GS 103

Bench(4)

11 PTS · 15 REB · 3 AST

GS 2

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LAL1st Quarter · 6:41 · 17-13

+17pp→ 54% WP

Christian Koloko · enters the game for Jock Landale

MEM4th Quarter · 8:47 · 91-87

+12pp→ 70% WP

Dalton Knecht · misses 23-foot three point jumper

MEM4th Quarter · 5:29 · 99-98

+13pp→ 52% WP

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope · makes 27-foot three pointer (Jaren Jackson Jr. assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MEM	34	31	22	27	114
LAL	26	28	29	37	120

Period scoring

MEM won 2 · LAL won 2

Coward 10

Doncic 15

Landale 7

Knecht 16

Wells 5

LaRavia 8

Wells 15

James 11

MEM

LAL

Shooting comparison

MEM

LAL

42%

42-100

48%

38-80

24%

10-41

3PT

27%

11-41

91%

20-22

80%

33-41

Play-by-play · 518 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MEM 114·LAL 120
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MEM 114·LAL 120
Q4·2.6
LeBron James defensive rebound
·
MEM 114·LAL 120
Q4·2.6
Jaylen Wells misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
MEM 114·LAL 120
+0.8pp
Q4·6.6
Luka Doncic makes free throw 2 of 2
MEM 114·LAL 120
−0.5pp
Q4·6.6
Luka Doncic makes free throw 1 of 2
MEM 114·LAL 119
Q4·6.6
Santi Aldama personal take foul
MEM 114·LAL 118
+3pp
Q4·9.5
Jaylen Wells makes 26-foot three point jumper (Santi Aldama assists)
·
MEM 114·LAL 118
−3pp
Q4·14.9
Grizzlies Full timeout
MEM 111·LAL 118
Q4·14.9
Marcus Smart makes free throw 2 of 2
MEM 111·LAL 118
−0.6pp
Q4·14.9
Marcus Smart makes free throw 1 of 2
MEM 111·LAL 117
Q4·14.9
Cam Spencer personal foul
MEM 111·LAL 116
+2pp
Q4·16.3
Jaylen Wells makes two point shot
MEM 111·LAL 116
−1pp
Q4·16.3
Jaylen Wells offensive rebound
MEM 109·LAL 116
−0.5pp
Q4·18.1
Jaylen Wells misses 26-foot three point jumper
MEM 109·LAL 116
+1pp
Q4·23.0
Deandre Ayton out of bounds bad pass turnover
MEM 109·LAL 116
−1pp
Q4·23.0
Deandre Ayton defensive rebound
MEM 109·LAL 116
+0.5pp
Q4·26.3
Jaren Jackson Jr. misses 23-foot three point jumper
·
MEM 109·LAL 116
+2pp
Q4·34.6
Jake LaRavia makes free throw 2 of 2
MEM 109·LAL 116
−1pp
Q4·34.6
Jake LaRavia makes free throw 1 of 2
MEM 109·LAL 115
+0.5pp
Q4·34.6
Jaren Jackson Jr. personal foul
·
MEM 109·LAL 114
+4pp
Q4·46.9
Jaylen Wells makes free throw 3 of 3
MEM 109·LAL 114
+4pp
Q4·46.9
Jaylen Wells makes free throw 2 of 3
MEM 108·LAL 114
−4pp
Q4·46.9
Marcus Smart enters the game for Jarred Vanderbilt
·
MEM 107·LAL 114
Q4·46.9
Jaylen Wells makes free throw 1 of 3
MEM 107·LAL 114
−5pp
Q4·46.9
(00:46.9) [Lakers] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Lakers] charged with a timeout
MEM 106·LAL 114
+4pp
Q4·46.9
Lakers Full timeout
MEM 106·LAL 114
Q4·46.9
Jarred Vanderbilt shooting foul
MEM 106·LAL 114
−3pp
Q4·50.8
Santi Aldama defensive rebound
MEM 106·LAL 114
Q4·53.0
Jarred Vanderbilt misses 25-foot three point jumper
MEM 106·LAL 114
−0.6pp

Betting line

LAL -5.5·O/U 238.5·MEM +180/LAL -218

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

os Angeles Lakers held off Memphis Grizzlies, 120–114.

LAL -5.5 cashed (won by 6). Total stayed UNDER 238.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort

Luka DoncicLAL · G
USG%37.399+
Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH · F
CONT9.197
LeBron JamesLAL · F
TOUCHES78.997
Cam SpencerMEM · G
TS%64.992
Santi AldamaDAL · F
CONT6.790

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MEM favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAL vs MEM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 120 high confidence

Points

Luka DoncicLAL
35.3± 12.2high
Austin ReavesLAL
21.0± 6.8high
Ty JeromeMEM
18.9± 4.2medium

Rebounds

Zach EdeyMEM
11.3± 7.8low
Walker KesslerLAL
10.7± 2.2low
Luka DoncicLAL
7.1± 2.1high

Assists

Luka DoncicLAL
7.6± 3.5high
Austin ReavesLAL
5.4± 2.6high
Ty JeromeMEM
5.4± 2.7medium

Blocks

Zach EdeyMEM
1.9± 2.3low
Walker KesslerLAL
1.8± 2.5low
GG JacksonMEM
0.9± 0.7high

Steals

Luka DoncicLAL
2.0± 1.4high
Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM
1.9± 2.1low
Collin SextonLAL
1.6± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MEM

league avg

LAL

53.3%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

57.0%

45.6%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.9%

114.7

PPG

114.9

114.8

27.8

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.7

14.6

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR