NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+8ORL

IND

6-30

127135

ORL

20-16

NBASun, Jan 4FinalSeriesORL leads series 2-0VegasORL -6.5

IND · top performer

Pascal Siakam

F · #43

28.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ORL · top performer

Desmond Bane

G · #3

29.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowIND ↔ ORL

Biggest swing: 18pp · 1st Quarter · 10:29

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. SiakamF · #43	36	34	14-21	2-4	4-4	-12	7	5
M. PotterC · #33	29	11	3-5	1-3	4-4	-7	10	2
A. NembhardG · #2	35	20	7-16	2-7	4-6	-8	1	11
A. NesmithG · #23	34	25	8-16	5-11	4-4	-8	4	8
J. FurphyG · #12	13	2	1-4	0-2	0-2	0	5	1
Bench
J. WalkerF · #5	16	6	2-4	2-2	—	+3	1	3
T. BradleyC · #13	7	0	—	—	—	+1	1	0
J. HuffC · #32	17	11	5-6	1-2	0-1	+1	5	1
T.J. McConnellG · #9	21	10	5-9	—	—	-10	4	5
B. SheppardG · #26	24	8	3-6	2-3	—	+2	3	2
K. JonesG · #7	6	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
Team		127	48-87	15-34	16-21		41	38
DNP: E. Thompson, Q. Jackson, T. Peter

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. BancheroF · #5	36	28	9-18	3-5	7-9	0	12	5
T. da SilvaF · #23	28	10	4-8	2-4	—	-8	0	0
W. Carter Jr.C · #34	32	18	6-10	1-3	5-8	+12	12	4
D. BaneG · #3	37	31	12-17	3-6	4-4	+10	6	6
A. BlackG · #0	36	27	8-16	3-7	8-10	-3	3	10
Bench
J. IsaacF · #1	12	4	1-1	—	2-2	+8	0	3
J. CainF · #8	0	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
G. BitadzeC · #35	16	2	1-2	—	—	-4	2	0
T. JonesG · #2	14	3	1-2	1-2	—	+11	0	2
J. HowardG · #13	3	0	0-1	—	—	0	0	0
J. RichardsonG · #11	27	12	5-9	2-5	0-1	+14	1	4
Team		135	47-84	15-32	26-34		36	34
DNP: N. Penda

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

IND

Away

Stat

ORL

Home

48-87

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

47-84

FG %

15-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

15-32

16-21

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

26-34

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

ORL leads series 2-0

Dec 31

ORL112@

IND110

Jan 4

IND127@

ORL135today

Mar 23

IND128@

ORL126

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ORL -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

228.5

Standard · +2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

IND+20033%

ORL-24571%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ORL -6.5↗SpreadBet ORL -6.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

228.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ORL beat IND 135-127. D. Bane paced them with 31 PTS, 6 REB, 6 AST. ORL outscored the other side 41-22 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ORL vs IND

Starters vs bench

production by unit

INDstarters 72% of pts

Starters(5)

92 PTS · 27 REB · 27 AST

GS 79

Bench(6)

35 PTS · 14 REB · 11 AST

GS 30

ORLstarters 84% of pts

Starters(5)

114 PTS · 33 REB · 25 AST

GS 107

Bench(6)

21 PTS · 3 REB · 9 AST

GS 18

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ORL1st Quarter · 10:29 · 4-3

+18pp→ 72% WP

Johnny Furphy · bad pass turnover (Wendell Carter Jr. steals)

IND2nd Quarter · 11:28 · 39-29

+14pp→ 62% WP

Ben Sheppard · enters the game for Jarace Walker

ORL4th Quarter · 6:54 · 116-120

+11pp→ 74% WP

Paolo Banchero · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
IND	36	22	42	27	127
ORL	28	41	38	28	135

Period scoring

IND won 2 · ORL won 2

Nesmith 10

Black 13

Nesmith 8

Bane 9

Siakam 20

Banchero 12

Siakam 6

Bane 8

IND

ORL

Shooting comparison

IND

ORL

55%

48-87

56%

47-84

44%

15-34

3PT

47%

15-32

76%

16-21

76%

26-34

Play-by-play · 462 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 127·ORL 135
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 127·ORL 135
Q4·10.7
Wendell Carter Jr. defensive rebound
IND 127·ORL 135
Q4·14.2
Anthony Black blocks Aaron Nesmith 's 30-foot three point pullup jump shot
·
IND 127·ORL 135
Q4·17.6
Pacers Full timeout
IND 127·ORL 135
Q4·17.6
Wendell Carter Jr. makes 2-foot dunk (Anthony Black assists)
·
IND 127·ORL 135
+1pp
Q4·24.5
Paolo Banchero defensive rebound
IND 127·ORL 133
+0.7pp
Q4·28.0
Ben Sheppard misses 23-foot three point jumper
IND 127·ORL 133
+2pp
Q4·37.5
Micah Potter defensive rebound
IND 127·ORL 133
−0.5pp
Q4·39.7
Anthony Black misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
IND 127·ORL 133
−1pp
Q4·57.9
Desmond Bane defensive rebound
IND 127·ORL 133
+0.9pp
Q4·1:00
Micah Potter misses 23-foot three point jumper
IND 127·ORL 133
+3pp
Q4·1:10
Tristan da Silva makes 25-foot three pointer (Anthony Black assists)BIG MOMENT
·
IND 127·ORL 133
+9pp
Q4·1:32
Micah Potter makes 3-foot dunk (Aaron Nesmith assists)
·
IND 127·ORL 130
−4pp
Q4·1:47
Wendell Carter Jr. makes tip in dunkBIG MOMENT
IND 125·ORL 130
+5pp
Q4·1:47
Wendell Carter Jr. offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
IND 125·ORL 128
+6pp
Q4·1:47
Tristan da Silva misses two point shot
IND 125·ORL 128
−5pp
Q4·2:03
Pascal Siakam makes 3-foot two point shot (Aaron Nesmith assists)
·
IND 125·ORL 128
−5pp
Q4·2:20
Anthony Black makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 123·ORL 128
−3pp
Q4·2:20
Anthony Black makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 123·ORL 127
+5pp
Q4·2:20
Micah Potter shooting foul
IND 123·ORL 126
+5pp
Q4·2:33
Pascal Siakam bad pass turnover (Tristan da Silva steals)BIG MOMENT
·
IND 123·ORL 126
+7pp
Q4·2:34
Wendell Carter Jr. bad pass turnover (Micah Potter steals)BIG MOMENT
·
IND 123·ORL 126
−6pp
Q4·2:55
Andrew Nembhard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ben Sheppard assists)BIG MOMENT
·
IND 123·ORL 126
−9pp
Q4·3:05
Paolo Banchero bad pass turnover (Ben Sheppard steals)
·
IND 120·ORL 126
−3pp
Q4·3:28
Pascal Siakam makes 2-foot layup (Aaron Nesmith assists)
·
IND 120·ORL 126
−2pp
Q4·3:44
Paolo Banchero makes 6-foot two point shot
IND 118·ORL 126
+3pp
Q4·3:59
Desmond Bane enters the game for Jase Richardson
·
IND 118·ORL 124
Q4·3:59
Magic Full timeout
IND 118·ORL 124
Q4·3:59
Pascal Siakam makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot
IND 118·ORL 124
−2pp

Betting line

ORL -6.5·O/U 228.5·IND +200/ORL -245

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

rlando Magic held off Indiana Pacers, 135–127.

ORL -6.5 cashed (won by 8). Total cleared the 228.5 OVER by 33.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.699
Goga BitadzeORL · C
TS%70.099
Andrew NembhardIND · G
TOUCHES87.498
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · C
CONT9.197
Anthony BlackORL · G
DEFL3.797

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · IND favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ORL vs IND.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

170

projections · 155 high confidence

Points

Paolo BancheroORL
23.9± 9.4high
Pascal SiakamIND
23.8± 7.9high
Desmond BaneORL
18.8± 7.4high

Rebounds

Paolo BancheroORL
8.3± 2.3high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
7.4± 4.7high
Micah PotterIND
6.1± 4.5high

Assists

Andrew NembhardIND
8.5± 4.7high
Tyrese HaliburtonIND
8.1± 4.3high
T.J. McConnellIND
6.2± 3.1high

Blocks

Jay HuffIND
1.9± 1.9high
Goga BitadzeORL
1.4± 1.2high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
1.3± 0.7high

Steals

Jalen SuggsORL
1.8± 1.5high
Tyrese HaliburtonIND
1.6± 1.3high
Jalen SlawsonIND
1.5± 1.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

IND

league avg

ORL

53.3%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.5%

45.8%

FG%

47.0

45.9%

112.4

PPG

114.9

▶

114.2

27.7

Assists / G

◀

25.0

26.0

13.8

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR