NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+19MIA

8-29

106125

MIA

20-16

NBASun, Jan 4FinalSeriesMIA leads series 1-0VegasMIA -7.5

NO · top performer

Trey Murphy III

F · #25

22.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIA · top performer

Norman Powell

G · #24

31.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNO ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 14pp · 2nd Quarter · 5:27

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
Z. WilliamsonF · #1	26	12	6-10	—	—	-24	5	2
T. Murphy IIIF · #25	38	27	10-19	7-15	—	-18	8	5
K. MatkovicF · #17	24	4	2-5	0-3	—	-7	5	1
D. QueenC · #22	30	13	5-11	0-1	3-4	-15	6	4
J. FearsG · #0	26	21	8-13	4-6	1-2	-15	3	2
Bench
Y. MissiC · #21	17	6	3-5	—	—	+1	5	1
J. AlvaradoG · #15	20	6	2-7	2-6	—	+4	6	3
J. PooleG · #3	25	8	3-11	2-6	—	-10	1	8
M. PeavyG · #14	14	4	2-5	—	—	-5	1	1
T. AlexanderG · #23	2	0	—	—	—	-3	0	1
B. McGowensG · #11	16	5	1-3	1-2	2-2	0	2	0
J. HawkinsG · #24	2	0	0-1	0-1	—	-3	0	0
Team		106	42-90	16-40	6-8		42	28
DNP: K. Looney, D. Jordan

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. WigginsF · #22	28	10	4-9	0-2	2-2	+2	2	3
B. AdebayoC · #13	29	12	5-14	1-3	1-1	+23	6	6
K. WareC · #7	25	16	7-13	1-4	1-2	+8	12	1
N. PowellG · #24	29	34	11-15	9-12	3-4	+23	3	3
D. MitchellG · #45	29	9	3-9	3-6	—	+29	3	6
Bench
S. FontecchioF · #0	1	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
M. GardnerF · #15	13	4	1-5	0-2	2-2	-8	3	0
N. JovicF · #5	26	19	7-16	2-8	3-4	+17	6	3
D. SmithG · #12	19	2	1-1	—	—	-10	4	1
P. LarssonG · #9	26	16	7-15	1-5	1-3	+23	3	6
K. JakucionisG · #25	16	3	1-4	1-2	—	-10	1	1
Team		125	47-101	18-44	13-18		43	30
DNP: J. Jaquez Jr., T. Herro

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

42-90

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

47-101

FG %

16-40

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

18-44

6-8

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

13-18

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIA leads series 1-0

Jan 4

NO106@

MIA125today

Feb 12

MIA123@

NO111

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIA -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

247.5

High-scoring · +21.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NO+24029%

MIA-29875%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIA -7.5↗SpreadBet MIA -7.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

247.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIA beat NO 125-106. N. Powell paced them with 34 PTS, 3 REB, 3 AST. MIA outscored the other side 23-15 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIA vs NO

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NOstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

77 PTS · 27 REB · 14 AST

GS 56

Bench(7)

29 PTS · 15 REB · 14 AST

GS 22

MIAstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

81 PTS · 26 REB · 19 AST

GS 73

Bench(6)

44 PTS · 17 REB · 11 AST

GS 41

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIA2nd Quarter · 12:00 · 39-43

+7pp→ 77% WP

Zion Williamson · enters the game for Trey Murphy III

NO2nd Quarter · 5:27 · 51-53

+14pp→ 31% WP

Derik Queen · blocks Kel'el Ware's layup

MIA3rd Quarter · 12:00 · 62-70

+14pp→ 84% WP

Andrew Wiggins · enters the game for Nikola Jovic

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NO	39	23	15	29	106
MIA	43	27	23	32	125

Period scoring

NO won 0 · MIA won 4

III 13

Powell 15

III 8

Ware 5

Fears 5

Wiggins 29

Fears 8

Ware 11

MIA

Shooting comparison

MIA

47%

42-90

47%

47-101

40%

16-40

3PT

41%

18-44

75%

6-8

72%

13-18

Play-by-play · 478 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NO 106·MIA 125
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NO 106·MIA 125
Q4·21.5
Derik Queen defensive rebound
NO 106·MIA 125
Q4·24.9
Kasparas Jakucionis misses driving floating jump shot
NO 106·MIA 125
Q4·41.8
Micah Peavy makes driving layup (Trey Alexander assists)
·
NO 106·MIA 125
Q4·1:01
Kasparas Jakucionis enters the game for Davion Mitchell
·
NO 104·MIA 125
Q4·1:01
Dru Smith enters the game for Norman Powell
·
NO 104·MIA 125
Q4·1:01
Myron Gardner enters the game for Bam Adebayo
·
NO 104·MIA 125
Q4·1:01
Simone Fontecchio enters the game for Pelle Larsson
·
NO 104·MIA 125
Q4·1:01
Norman Powell personal take foul
NO 104·MIA 125
Q4·1:03
Kel'el Ware makes 10-foot two point shot
NO 104·MIA 125
Q4·1:03
Kel'el Ware offensive rebound
NO 104·MIA 123
Q4·1:07
Bam Adebayo misses running pullup jump shot
NO 104·MIA 123
Q4·1:11
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
NO 104·MIA 123
Q4·1:15
Jordan Hawkins misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
·
NO 104·MIA 123
Q4·1:24
Norman Powell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)
·
NO 104·MIA 123
Q4·1:49
Jeremiah Fears makes 17-foot fade away jump shot
NO 104·MIA 120
Q4·2:09
Norman Powell makes 3-foot two point shot
NO 102·MIA 120
Q4·2:24
Derik Queen makes free throw 2 of 2
NO 102·MIA 118
Q4·2:24
Trey Alexander enters the game for Karlo Matkovic
·
NO 101·MIA 118
Q4·2:24
Micah Peavy enters the game for Trey Murphy III
·
NO 101·MIA 118
Q4·2:24
Jordan Hawkins enters the game for Jose Alvarado
· ·
NO 101·MIA 118
Q4·2:24
Derik Queen makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 101·MIA 118
Q4·2:24
Kel'el Ware shooting foul
NO 100·MIA 118
Q4·2:34
Kel'el Ware makes 1-foot running dunk (Pelle Larsson assists)
·
NO 100·MIA 118
Q4·2:39
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
NO 100·MIA 116
Q4·2:41
Jeremiah Fears misses running layup
NO 100·MIA 116
Q4·2:42
Karlo Matkovic defensive rebound
NO 100·MIA 116
Q4·2:46
Karlo Matkovic blocks Davion Mitchell 's 1-foot driving layup
·
NO 100·MIA 116
Q4·2:56
Karlo Matkovic lost ball turnover (Norman Powell steals)
·
NO 100·MIA 116

Betting line

MIA -7.5·O/U 247.5·NO +240/MIA -298

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

iami Heat held off New Orleans Pelicans, 125–106.

MIA -7.5 cashed (won by 19). Total stayed UNDER 247.5 by 16.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Karlo MatkovicNO · F
TS%69.698
Zion WilliamsonNO · F
DRIVES13.796
Andrew WigginsMIA · F
CONT7.693
Bam AdebayoMIA · C
CONT6.891
Trey Murphy IIINO · F
DEFL2.891

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · NO favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIA vs NO.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 120 high confidence

Points

Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
25.0± 4.5high
Trey Murphy IIINO
20.0± 6.2high
Jeremiah FearsNO
19.9± 10.9high

Rebounds

Bam AdebayoMIA
10.3± 3.7high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
9.9± 4.4high
Derik QueenNO
8.1± 5.6high

Assists

Dejounte MurrayNO
6.4± 4.4low
Davion MitchellMIA
5.9± 2.8high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
5.1± 2.6high

Blocks

Yves MissiNO
1.8± 1.5high
Derik QueenNO
1.0± 0.9high
Andrew WigginsMIA
0.9± 0.9high

Steals

Dejounte MurrayNO
1.6± 0.9low
Jeremiah FearsNO
1.5± 1.1high
Trey Murphy IIINO
1.4± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

MIA

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

54.2%

46.6%

FG%

47.0

46.8%

115.5

PPG

114.9

▶

120.9

25.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.0

13.5

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR