NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3PHX

OKC

30-6

105108

PHX

21-14

NBASun, Jan 4FinalSeriesOKC leads series 2-1VegasOKC -10.5

OKC · top performer

Chet Holmgren

C · #7

19.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHX · top performer

Devin Booker

G · #1

24.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowOKC ↔ PHX

Biggest swing: 43pp · 4th Quarter · 1.6

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
C. HolmgrenC · #7	33	18	8-11	2-5	0-1	+8	9	1
S. Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #2	36	25	8-22	1-5	8-9	-5	0	6
L. DortG · #5	27	13	5-13	3-9	—	-5	4	0
Jal. WilliamsG · #8	34	23	9-13	1-2	4-4	+2	4	7
C. WallaceG · #22	18	3	1-2	1-2	—	+6	0	0
Bench
B. CarlsonC · #15	7	0	0-2	0-1	—	-10	1	0
A. CarusoG · #9	22	2	1-4	0-2	—	-10	1	3
K. WilliamsG · #34	7	3	1-1	1-1	—	-1	2	0
I. JoeG · #11	10	0	0-2	0-1	—	+5	2	0
A. WigginsG · #21	19	5	2-3	0-1	1-1	-6	4	0
A. MitchellG · #25	27	13	4-9	1-3	4-4	+1	2	3
Team		105	39-82	10-32	17-19		29	20
DNP: C. Youngblood

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
R. O'NealeF · #00	32	3	1-8	1-6	—	+1	6	3
D. BrooksF · #3	34	22	8-17	2-5	4-4	-8	4	2
M. WilliamsC · #15	21	8	3-5	—	2-2	-10	6	0
D. BookerG · #1	38	24	5-11	1-4	13-15	+11	6	9
C. GillespieG · #12	26	8	3-10	1-7	1-2	+9	3	3
Bench
I. LiversF · #18	5	3	1-1	1-1	—	-4	2	1
O. IghodaroF · #11	24	5	2-3	—	1-4	+14	8	0
R. DunnF · #0	21	9	3-8	3-7	—	+2	8	2
J. GoodwinG · #23	31	26	9-16	8-13	—	+8	4	0
J. BouyeaG · #17	9	0	—	—	0-2	-8	2	1
Team		108	35-79	17-43	21-29		49	21
DNP: N. Hayes-Davis, R. Fleming, N. Richards, K. Maluach

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

OKC

Away

Stat

PHX

Home

39-82

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

35-79

FG %

10-32

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

17-43

17-19

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

21-29

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

OKC wins series 4-0

Apr 19

PHX84@

OKC119

Apr 23

PHX107@

OKC120

Apr 25

OKC121@

PHX109

Apr 28

OKC131@

PHX122

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OKC -10.5

Half-pt above key 10

Total

229.5

Standard · +3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

OKC-39580%

PHX+31024%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OKC -10.5↗SpreadBet OKC -10.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

10.5

0.0 since open

Total

229.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHX beat OKC 108-105. D. Booker led with 24 PTS, 6 REB, 9 AST. PHX outscored the other side 32-24 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHX vs OKC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

OKCstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

82 PTS · 17 REB · 14 AST

GS 56

Bench(6)

23 PTS · 12 REB · 6 AST

GS 18

PHXstarters 60% of pts

Starters(5)

65 PTS · 25 REB · 17 AST

GS 44

Bench(5)

43 PTS · 24 REB · 4 AST

GS 32

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHX4th Quarter · 36.4 · 101-105

+18pp→ 84% WP

Dillon Brooks · makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot

OKC4th Quarter · 8.7 · 105-105

+28pp→ 46% WP

Jalen Williams · makes 9-foot step back jumpshot

PHX4th Quarter · 1.6 · 105-108

+43pp→ 97% WP

Devin Booker · makes 35-foot three point step back jumpshot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
OKC	26	23	24	32	105
PHX	20	22	32	34	108

Period scoring

OKC won 2 · PHX won 2

Dort 8

Goodwin 6

Williams 6

Gillespie 3

Gilgeous-Alexander 12

Booker 11

Williams 11

Brooks 14

OKC

PHX

Shooting comparison

OKC

PHX

48%

39-82

44%

35-79

31%

10-32

3PT

40%

17-43

89%

17-19

72%

21-29

Play-by-play · 482 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
OKC 105·PHX 108
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
OKC 105·PHX 108
Q4·0.0
Thunder offensive team rebound
OKC 105·PHX 108
Q4·0.0
Ajay Mitchell misses 24-foot three point jumper
OKC 105·PHX 108
+1pp
Q4·0.7
Ajay Mitchell enters the game for Cason Wallace
·
OKC 105·PHX 108
Q4·0.7
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander enters the game for Luguentz Dort
·
OKC 105·PHX 108
Q4·0.7
Mark Williams enters the game for Collin Gillespie
· ·
OKC 105·PHX 108
Q4·0.7
Thunder Full timeout
OKC 105·PHX 108
+2pp
Q4·1.6
Devin Booker makes 35-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
OKC 105·PHX 108
+43pp
Q4·8.2
Cason Wallace enters the game for Ajay Mitchell
·
OKC 105·PHX 105
Q4·8.2
Luguentz Dort enters the game for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
·
OKC 105·PHX 105
Q4·8.2
Royce O'Neale enters the game for Ryan Dunn
·
OKC 105·PHX 105
Q4·8.2
Collin Gillespie enters the game for Oso Ighodaro
·
OKC 105·PHX 105
Q4·8.2
Suns Full timeout
OKC 105·PHX 105
Q4·8.7
Jalen Williams makes 9-foot step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
· ·
OKC 105·PHX 105
−28pp
Q4·14.4
Oso Ighodaro kicked ball violationBIG MOMENT
OKC 103·PHX 105
+16pp
Q4·22.6
Ajay Mitchell enters the game for Luguentz Dort
·
OKC 103·PHX 105
Q4·22.6
Chet Holmgren enters the game for Cason Wallace
·
OKC 103·PHX 105
Q4·22.6
Ryan Dunn enters the game for Collin Gillespie
·
OKC 103·PHX 105
Q4·22.6
Oso Ighodaro enters the game for Royce O'Neale
·
OKC 103·PHX 105
Q4·22.6
Dillon Brooks out of bounds lost ball turnoverBIG MOMENT
OKC 103·PHX 105
−12pp
Q4·26.3
Luguentz Dort enters the game for Ajay Mitchell
·
OKC 103·PHX 105
Q4·26.3
Cason Wallace enters the game for Chet Holmgren
·
OKC 103·PHX 105
Q4·26.3
Collin Gillespie enters the game for Ryan Dunn
·
OKC 103·PHX 105
Q4·26.3
Royce O'Neale enters the game for Oso Ighodaro
·
OKC 103·PHX 105
Q4·26.3
Suns Full timeout
OKC 103·PHX 105
Q4·26.3
Chet Holmgren makes 13-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
OKC 103·PHX 105
−6pp
Q4·26.6
Chet Holmgren offensive rebound
OKC 101·PHX 105
−4pp
Q4·29.6
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses 9-foot step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
OKC 101·PHX 105
+6pp
Q4·36.1
Ajay Mitchell enters the game for Luguentz Dort
·
OKC 101·PHX 105

Betting line

OKC -10.5·O/U 229.5·OKC -395/PHX +310

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hoenix Suns held off Oklahoma City Thunder, 108–105. Decided by 3.

PHX +10.5 cashed (OKC lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 229.5 by 16.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Cason WallaceOKC · G
DEFL599+
Chet HolmgrenOKC · C
CONT10.799+
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · G
DRIVES18.399
Devin BookerPHX · G
USG%31.397
Mark WilliamsPHX · C
CONT8.496

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · OKC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHX vs OKC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

150

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
27.7± 6.8high
Devin BookerPHX
24.6± 6.2high
Jalen GreenPHX
21.0± 10.3high

Rebounds

Isaiah HartensteinOKC
8.6± 3.9high
Chet HolmgrenOKC
8.0± 3.0high
Miles BridgesPHX
5.8± 3.6high

Assists

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
7.6± 3.1high
Devin BookerPHX
5.8± 2.3high
Jalen WilliamsOKC
4.8± 2.9high

Blocks

Chet HolmgrenOKC
1.4± 0.9high
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
0.8± 0.8high
Oso IghodaroPHX
0.8± 0.7high

Steals

Cason WallaceOKC
2.0± 1.0high
Jordan GoodwinPHX
1.8± 2.1high
Alex CarusoOKC
1.5± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

OKC

league avg

PHX

55.9%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.7%

48.2%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.5%

118.5

PPG

◀

114.9

112.2

25.8

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.5

11.9

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR