Recent form
7-3
CHW +0.4 vs HOU -1.4 margin
CHW brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros
CHW
CHW
72-63
PregameMon, 8:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
HOU
HOU
68-68
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketDaikin Park · Houston, Texas
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Anthony Kay
SP · #18
9-6
W-L
4.09
ERA
1.34
WHIP
108
K
132.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsTEX-4.2 IP4 ER4 K
vsATLL(9-6)6.0 IP2 ER6 K
@DET-5.1 IP3 ER4 K
Home starter
Peter Lambert
SP · #38
8-7
W-L
3.66
ERA
1.23
WHIP
125
K
128.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@NYY-5.2 IP2 ER5 K
vsLAAL(8-7)3.2 IP9 ER3 K
vsSEA-5.0 IP2 ER6 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob43% / 57%
LeanHome · 7pp
ConfidenceLean
Head to head
SeriesHOU leads series 2-1
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
HOU vs CHW.
HOU is 5-5 recently; CHW is 7-3.
56.6%
model · HOU win prob
Recent form
- HOU5–5-1.4
- CHW7–3+0.4
Situational
- HOU2d rest
- CHW2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. HOU has 5 straight road games; CHW has 2.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.1pp
Players to watch
- Sean BurkeCHW6.3strikeouts · ±3.3
Sean Burke · 6.3 K · last-10 6.6 vs season 6.
- Peter LambertHOU5.6strikeouts · ±2.3
Peter Lambert · 5.6 K · last-10 5.7 vs season 5.4.
- Anthony KayCHW4.2strikeouts · ±1.4
Anthony Kay · 4.2 K · last-10 4.3 vs season 4.
Head-to-head · 2-1 · last 3
HOU is 2-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-07-24HOU @ CHW9–5
- 2026-07-25HOU @ CHW4–1
- 2026-07-26HOU @ CHW3–12
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
56.6%
ensemble · HOU favored
Elo Static
50.9%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.4%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.5%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.37 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
98% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
HOU vs CHW.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 114 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Sean BurkeCHW6.3± 3.3high
- Peter LambertHOU5.6± 2.3high
- Hunter BrownHOU5.5± 2.5medium
Hits
- Miguel VargasCHW1.1± 0.8high
- Yordan AlvarezHOU1.1± 1.0high
- Tristan PetersCHW1.0± 1.2high
Total bases
- Tristan PetersCHW2.2± 2.9high
- Jeremy PenaHOU2.0± 1.9high
- Yordan AlvarezHOU2.0± 2.0high
RBIs
- Andrew BenintendiCHW0.8± 0.9high
- Tristan PetersCHW0.7± 1.1high
- Braden MontgomeryCHW0.6± 0.8high
Earned runs
- Luis CastilloCHW3.0± 1.7high
- Hayden WesneskiHOU2.3± 2.4low
- Hunter BrownHOU2.3± 2.0medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
CHW
league avg
HOU
.730
OPS
.718
.725
.320
OBP
◀
.318
.316
4.82
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.54
4.14
Team ERA
◀
4.15
4.64
1.31
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.36
8.5
K / 9
8.5
▶8.9
The One modelLean
Mon, Aug 31CHW
White Sox
88-70
vs56.6%HOU
HOU★
Astros
86-77
CHW 43.4%win prob56.6% HOU
HOU 1517 · CHW 1535Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- GiantsBraves8/31 - 6:05 PM EDT
- MetsRays8/31 - 6:40 PM EDT
- PadresReds8/31 - 6:40 PM EDT
- MarlinsNationals8/31 - 6:45 PM EDT
- MarinersRed Sox8/31 - 6:45 PM EDT
- TigersTwins8/31 - 7:40 PM EDT
- BrewersCubs8/31 - 7:40 PM EDT
- AthleticsRangers8/31 - 8:05 PM EDT
- OriolesRockies8/31 - 8:40 PM EDT
- YankeesAngels8/31 - 9:38 PM EDT
- PhilliesDiamondbacks8/31 - 9:40 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
