Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYM at TB?

The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 31, 2026

NYM

61-76

PregameMon, 6:40 PM EDTMLB.TV

82-54

ATS/TB -1.5O/U/8ML/TB-165

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Park factor

96 total idx

Tropicana Field run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

6-4

TB +0.5 vs NYM -0.9 margin

TB brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida

Line movement

200 snapshots

TB spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

TB no-vig %

60.8%

open 60.8%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TB favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Robert Stock

RP · #89

0-3

W-L

7.40

ERA

1.94

WHIP

20.2

Last 3 starts

vsMILL(0-3)4.0 IP7 ER2 K

vsSD-4.1 IP1 ER6 K

vsWSH-4.1 IP0 ER5 K

Home starter

Ian Seymour

SP · #61

9-5

W-L

4.21

ERA

1.15

WHIP

128

107.0

Last 3 starts

@DETL(9-5)5.2 IP3 ER5 K

vsTORL(9-4)5.0 IP3 ER8 K

vsBAL-6.0 IP3 ER9 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 8

Money+154 / -165

Model edge

Win prob37% / 63%

LeanHome · 13pp

ConfidenceEdge

Head to head

No prior meetings logged this season yet.

Place a bet

Take TB on the model side.

Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.

Model side · moneyline

-165Bet TB ML↗-165Bet TB ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 8Bet the total↗O/U 8Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Scouting report · pre-game

TB vs NYM.

TB enters on a 4-game win streak; NYM is 4-6 over its last 10.

63.4%

model · TB win prob

Recent form

TB6–4+0.5
NYM4–6-0.9

Situational

TB1d restB2B
NYM1d restB2B
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. TB has 0 straight road games; NYM has 0.

Model angle

+2.1ppon TB

TB's edge is mostly recent form plus venue split. Model confidence is the main caution flag. Weather and park remove about 0.3 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.3pp
▲Recent form+1.6pp
▼Model confidence-1.0pp

Players to watch

Nolan McLeanNYM
6.1strikeouts · ±2.2
Nolan McLean · 6.1 K · last-10 5.9 vs season 6.4.
Christian ScottNYM
5.9strikeouts · ±1.6
Christian Scott · 5.9 K · last-10 6 vs season 5.7.
Drew RasmussenTB
5.5strikeouts · ±3.0
Drew Rasmussen · 5.5 K · last-10 5.4 vs season 5.6.

Line move

open -175→-175flat

The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.9%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
66.8%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
70.6%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
66.8%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.78 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like TB.

TB's edge is mostly recent form plus venue split. Model confidence is the main caution flag.

+2.1

pp edge · TB

0.00

CLV pp

Pass

62.1%

±6.4pp band

Pass — negative expected value (-0.2pp edge).

Edge

+0.8pp

-1.3pp post-cal

Kelly

—

no stake

Decimal

1.61

-0.2pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 2.1pp · TB over NYM

▲
Recent form70% conf
TB is 4-1 over its last 5; NYM is 1-4.
+1.6pp
▼
Model confidence68% conf
TB sits near the model-market noise floor.
-1.0pp
▲
Venue split66% conf
TB's venue form is 12.5pp stronger in the recent sample.
+0.8pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
TB has taken 3 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.8pp

Open price

-175

Close price

-175

Open no-vig

60.8%

Close no-vig

60.8%

Line barely moved

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYM at TB?: The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+1.5pp

best edge · TB · DraftKings

NYM

no live price

★ best

-170DraftKings

edge +1.5pp · implied 61.9%

Book	NYM	TB	Best edge
DraftKings	+158	-170★	+1.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

TB vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 106 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
6.1± 2.2high
Christian ScottNYM
5.9± 1.6high
Drew RasmussenTB
5.5± 3.0high

Hits

Carson BengeNYM
1.3± 1.1high
Junior CamineroTB
1.3± 0.5high
Chandler SimpsonTB
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Junior CamineroTB
2.1± 1.4high
Carson BengeNYM
2.0± 2.0high
Luis TorrensNYM
1.7± 2.0high

RBIs

Junior CamineroTB
0.7± 0.5high
Jonny DeLucaTB
0.6± 1.0high
Carson BengeNYM
0.5± 0.8high

Earned runs

Robert StockNYM
3.4± 5.1low
Freddy PeraltaTB
3.2± 2.5high
Sean ManaeaNYM
2.6± 1.6high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYM

league avg

.695

OPS

.718

▶

.733

.306

OBP

.318

▶

.329

4.10

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.53

4.08

Team ERA

4.16

▶

3.77

1.30

WHIP

1.30

▶

1.15

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.2

The One modelEdge

Mon, Aug 31

NYM

Mets

71-88

vs63.4%TB

TB★

Rays

110-54

NYM 36.6%win prob63.4% TB

TB 1583 · NYM 1486Box score→

Team pages

New York MetsTampa Bay Rays

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

New York Mets at Tampa Bay Rays

The matchup, end-to-end.

Take TB on the model side.

TB vs NYM.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like TB.

Where to bet this game.

TB vs NYM.

Team rate stats vs league

Where to bet this game.

Why we like TB.