Baltimore Orioles vs Colorado Rockies: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 31, 2026

BAL

67-69

PregameMon, 8:40 PM EDTMLB.TV

COL

52-84

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Park factor

115 total idx

Coors Field run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

6-4

BAL +0.8 vs COL -2.1 margin

BAL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Kyle Bradish

SP · #38

7-12

W-L

4.03

ERA

1.41

WHIP

133

143.0

Last 3 starts

@STL-4.1 IP7 ER4 K

vsNYYL(7-12)5.2 IP3 ER5 K

@TB-6.0 IP2 ER3 K

Home starter

Tanner Gordon

RP · #29

1-4

W-L

5.38

ERA

1.43

WHIP

83.2

Last 3 starts

@WSHW(1-4)7.0 IP1 ER5 K

vsCLEL(0-4)5.1 IP5 ER2 K

@SF-4.0 IP0 ER4 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Win prob61% / 39%

LeanAway · 11pp

ConfidenceEdge

Head to head

SeriesSeries starts 8/31

TypeRegular Season Series

Scouting report · pre-game

COL vs BAL.

COL has dropped 3 straight; BAL is 6-4 over its last 10.

38.6%

model · COL win prob

Recent form

COL2–8-2.1
BAL6–4+0.8

Situational

COL2d rest
BAL2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. COL has 6 straight road games; BAL has 5.

Model angle

Weather and park add about 1.3 runs from the total environment.

▲Weather + park+1.3pp

Players to watch

Trevor RogersBAL
5.5strikeouts · ±1.7
Trevor Rogers · 5.5 K · last-10 6 vs season 4.8.
Shane BazBAL
5.2strikeouts · ±3.1
Shane Baz · 5.2 K · last-10 5.2 vs season 5.1.
Brandon YoungBAL
4.6strikeouts · ±1.3
Brandon Young · 4.6 K · last-10 4.6 vs season 4.5.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

37.4%

ensemble · BAL favored

Elo Static
42.9%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
41.3%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
42.7%
P(COL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.71 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

COL vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 107 high confidence

Strikeouts

Trevor RogersBAL
5.5± 1.7high
Shane BazBAL
5.2± 3.1high
Brandon YoungBAL
4.6± 1.3high

Hits

Blaze AlexanderBAL
1.1± 0.9high
Pete AlonsoBAL
1.1± 1.3high
Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
1.0± 1.3high

Total bases

Pete AlonsoBAL
2.3± 2.7high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
2.1± 2.1high
Coby MayoBAL
1.8± 2.1high

RBIs

Pete AlonsoBAL
0.9± 1.5high
Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
0.7± 1.1high
Leody TaverasBAL
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Ryan FeltnerCOL
3.8± 2.2high
Gabriel HughesCOL
3.5± 3.1low
Tomoyuki SuganoCOL
3.4± 2.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BAL

league avg

COL

.715

OPS

.718

▶

.739

.318

OBP

.318

▶

.324

4.54

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.72

4.19

Team ERA

◀

4.15

5.52

1.34

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.52

8.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

6.9

The One modelEdge

Mon, Aug 31

BAL★

Orioles

71-91

vs61.4%BAL

COL

Rockies

58-98

BAL 61.4%win prob38.6% COL

BAL 1483 · COL 1409Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockies

The matchup, end-to-end.

COL vs BAL.

3 sub-models, blended.

COL vs BAL.

Team rate stats vs league