Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BAL at COL?

The model favors BAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Baltimore Orioles vs Colorado Rockies: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 31, 2026

BAL

68-69

PregameMon, 8:40 PM EDTMLB.TV

COL

52-85

ATS/BAL -1.5O/U/11ML/BAL-142

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Park factor

115 total idx

Coors Field run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

7-3

BAL +1.3 vs COL -2.0 margin

BAL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado

Line movement

200 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 11.0

open O/U 11.0

COL no-vig %

43.7%

open 43.7%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Kyle Bradish

SP · #38

7-12

W-L

4.03

ERA

1.41

WHIP

133

143.0

Last 3 starts

@STL-4.1 IP7 ER4 K

vsNYYL(7-12)5.2 IP3 ER5 K

@TB-6.0 IP2 ER3 K

Home starter

Tanner Gordon

RP · #29

1-4

W-L

5.38

ERA

1.43

WHIP

83.2

Last 3 starts

@WSHW(1-4)7.0 IP1 ER5 K

vsCLEL(0-4)5.1 IP5 ER2 K

@SF-4.0 IP0 ER4 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 11

Money-142 / +118

Model edge

Win prob63% / 37%

LeanAway · 13pp

ConfidenceEdge

Head to head

No prior meetings logged this season yet.

Place a bet

Take BAL on the model side.

Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.

Model side · moneyline

-142Bet BAL ML↗-142Bet BAL ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 11Bet the total↗O/U 11Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Scouting report · pre-game

COL vs BAL.

COL has dropped 4 straight; BAL is 7-3 over its last 10.

36.7%

model · COL win prob

Recent form

COL2–8-2.0
BAL7–3+1.3

Situational

COL1d restB2B
BAL1d restB2B
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. COL has 7 straight road games; BAL has 6.

Model angle

+7.3ppon BAL

BAL's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. Travel burden is the main caution flag. Weather and park add about 1.3 runs from the total environment.

▲Weather + park+1.3pp
▲Model confidence+3.3pp
▲Venue split+3.3pp

Players to watch

Trevor RogersBAL
5.5strikeouts · ±1.7
Trevor Rogers · 5.5 K · last-10 6 vs season 4.8.
Shane BazBAL
5.2strikeouts · ±3.1
Shane Baz · 5.2 K · last-10 5.2 vs season 5.1.
Brandon YoungBAL
4.6strikeouts · ±1.3
Brandon Young · 4.6 K · last-10 4.6 vs season 4.5.

Line move

open +119→+119flat

The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

35.2%

ensemble · BAL favored

Elo Static
42.1%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
40.4%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
41.8%
P(COL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.74 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like BAL.

BAL's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. Travel burden is the main caution flag.

+7.3

pp edge · BAL

0.00

CLV pp

5.0u · large

on BAL

74.1%

±6.2pp band

5u large — +15.4pp edge, quarter Kelly capped.

Edge

+18.0pp

+10.7pp post-cal

Kelly

37.3%

5.0% sized

Decimal

1.70

+15.4pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 7.3pp · BAL over COL

▲
Model confidence90% conf
BAL clears the model's lock threshold.
+3.3pp
▲
Venue split62% conf
BAL's venue form is 75pp stronger in the recent sample.
+3.3pp
▲
Recent form70% conf
BAL is 4-1 over its last 5; COL is 1-4.
+2.7pp
▼
Travel burden58% conf
BAL is carrying the heavier road load, so the edge gets a haircut.
-2.4pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
BAL has taken 2 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.4pp

Open price

-143

Close price

-143

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Line barely moved

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BAL at COL?: The model favors BAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+7.3pp

best edge · BAL · DraftKings

BAL

★ best

-142DraftKings

edge +7.3pp · implied 56.1%

COL

no live price

Book	BAL	COL	Best edge
DraftKings	-142★	+118	+7.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

COL vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 107 high confidence

Strikeouts

Trevor RogersBAL
5.5± 1.7high
Shane BazBAL
5.2± 3.1high
Brandon YoungBAL
4.6± 1.3high

Hits

Blaze AlexanderBAL
1.1± 0.9high
Pete AlonsoBAL
1.1± 1.3high
Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
1.0± 1.3high

Total bases

Pete AlonsoBAL
2.1± 2.7high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
2.1± 2.1high
Coby MayoBAL
1.7± 1.7high

RBIs

Pete AlonsoBAL
0.8± 1.5high
Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
0.7± 1.1high
Coby MayoBAL
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Ryan FeltnerCOL
3.7± 2.4high
Gabriel HughesCOL
3.5± 3.1low
Tomoyuki SuganoCOL
3.4± 2.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BAL

league avg

COL

.716

OPS

.718

▶

.737

.318

OBP

.318

▶

.323

4.57

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.70

4.19

Team ERA

◀

4.16

5.49

1.34

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.52

8.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.0

The One modelEdge

Mon, Aug 31

BAL★

Orioles

72-91

vs63.4%BAL

COL

Rockies

58-99

BAL 63.4%win prob36.6% COL

BAL 1486 · COL 1407Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockies

The matchup, end-to-end.

Take BAL on the model side.

COL vs BAL.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like BAL.

Where to bet this game.

COL vs BAL.

Team rate stats vs league

3 sub-models, blended.

COL vs BAL.

Where to bet this game.

Why we like BAL.