Recent form
8-2
PHI +1.7 vs ARI +0.1 margin
PHI brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks
PHI
PHI
76-60
PregameMon, 9:40 PM EDTESPN Unlmtd, MLB.TV
ARI
ARI
73-65
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketChase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Aaron Nola
SP · #27
5-10
W-L
5.03
ERA
1.40
WHIP
153
K
143.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@SEAL(5-10)6.0 IP2 ER7 K
vsMIAW(5-9)7.0 IP1 ER8 K
vsMINW(4-9)5.0 IP1 ER9 K
Home starter
Brandon Pfaadt
RP · #32
7-1
W-L
3.51
ERA
1.14
WHIP
72
K
105.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsCHC-6.2 IP4 ER3 K
@BOS-5.2 IP5 ER8 K
@ATLW(7-1)7.0 IP0 ER7 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob51% / 49%
LeanTossup
ConfidenceTossup
Head to head
SeriesARI leads series 2-1
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
ARI vs PHI.
ARI is 6-4 recently; PHI is 8-2.
48.8%
model · ARI win prob
Recent form
- ARI6–4+0.1
- PHI8–2+1.7
Situational
- ARI2d rest
- PHI2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. ARI has 4 straight road games; PHI has 5.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Jesus LuzardoPHI7.7strikeouts · ±3.1
Jesus Luzardo · 7.7 K · last-10 7.9 vs season 7.3.
- Zack WheelerPHI7.1strikeouts · ±3.3
Zack Wheeler · 7.1 K · last-10 7.4 vs season 6.7.
- Cristopher SanchezPHI6.8strikeouts · ±2.2
Cristopher Sanchez · 6.8 K · last-10 6.7 vs season 7.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
49.9%
ensemble · PHI favored
Elo Static
47.5%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.3%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.3%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.90 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
94% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ARI vs PHI.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 117 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Jesus LuzardoPHI7.7± 3.1high
- Zack WheelerPHI7.1± 3.3high
- Cristopher SanchezPHI6.8± 2.2high
Hits
- Luis ArraezPHI1.3± 1.2high
- Geraldo PerdomoARI1.2± 0.8high
- Alec BohmPHI1.1± 1.0high
Total bases
- Kyle SchwarberPHI2.0± 2.3high
- Bryce HarperPHI1.9± 2.0high
- Gabriel MorenoARI1.7± 1.5high
RBIs
- Edmundo SosaPHI1.1± 1.6high
- Gabriel MorenoARI0.8± 1.3high
- Lars NootbaarARI0.8± 1.3high
Earned runs
- Andrew PainterPHI3.4± 2.0high
- Merrill KellyARI2.8± 2.4high
- Zack WheelerPHI2.7± 2.5high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
PHI
league avg
ARI
.714
OPS
.718
.714
.313
OBP
.318
.316
4.54
Runs / G
4.50
4.53
4.07
Team ERA
◀
4.15
4.18
1.29
WHIP
1.30
1.29
10.0
K / 9
◀
8.5
6.9
The One modelTossup
Mon, Aug 31PHI★
Phillies
94-74
vs51.3%PHI
ARI
Diamondbacks
77-81
PHI 51.3%win prob48.7% ARI
PHI 1550 · ARI 1509Box score→
Elsewhere in the MLB
- GiantsBraves8/31 - 6:05 PM EDT
- MetsRays8/31 - 6:40 PM EDT
- PadresReds8/31 - 6:40 PM EDT
- MarlinsNationals8/31 - 6:45 PM EDT
- MarinersRed Sox8/31 - 6:45 PM EDT
- TigersTwins8/31 - 7:40 PM EDT
- BrewersCubs8/31 - 7:40 PM EDT
- AthleticsRangers8/31 - 8:05 PM EDT
- White SoxAstros8/31 - 8:10 PM EDT
- OriolesRockies8/31 - 8:40 PM EDT
- YankeesAngels8/31 - 9:38 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
