Recent form
6-4
WSH +0.4 vs LAD 0.0 margin
WSH brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers
WSH
WSH
67-75
PregameFri, 10:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
LAD
LAD
83-57
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketDodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
Line movement
200 snapshots
LAD spread
-1.5
open PK · -1.5
Total
O/U 8.0
open O/U 8.5 · -0.5
LAD no-vig %
72.5%
open 72.1% · +0.4
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
J
Jackson Kent
SP · #25
1-2
W-L
5.59
ERA
1.71
WHIP
17
K
19.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsMIAW(1-2)7.0 IP1 ER3 K
@MIAL(0-2)4.2 IP3 ER5 K
@TEXL(0-1)3.2 IP5 ER3 K
Home starter
Blake Snell
SP · #7
2-1
W-L
2.42
ERA
1.08
WHIP
36
K
26.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@DET-5.0 IP1 ER10 K
vsPITW(2-1)6.0 IP0 ER6 K
@COLW(1-1)6.0 IP1 ER5 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 8
Money+259 / -328
Model edge
Win prob39% / 61%
LeanHome · 11pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesLAD lead series 3-0
TypeRegular Season Series
Place a bet
Take LAD on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Scouting report · pre-game
LAD vs WSH.
LAD is 4-6 recently; WSH is 6-4.
61.4%
model · LAD win prob
Recent form
- LAD4–6+0.0
- WSH6–4+0.4
Situational
- LAD1d restB2B
- WSH2d rest
- -1.0d differential
WSH has 1 more rest day. LAD has 0 straight road games; WSH has 0.
Model angle
+11.9ppon WSH
WSH's edge is mostly model confidence plus rest advantage. Venue split is the main caution flag. Weather and park are neutral for the total environment.
- ▲Model confidence+1.5pp
- ▼Venue split-1.5pp
- ▼Head to head-0.6pp
Players to watch
- Tarik SkubalLAD7.4strikeouts · ±2.4
Tarik Skubal · 7.4 K · last-10 7.5 vs season 7.2.
- Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD6.8strikeouts · ±2.1
Yoshinobu Yamamoto · 6.8 K · last-10 7.1 vs season 6.4.
- Cade CavalliWSH6.8strikeouts · ±2.7
Cade Cavalli · 6.8 K · last-10 7.2 vs season 6.1.
Line move
open -306→-314toward LAD
The market has moved 0.5pp toward the home side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
61.7%
ensemble · LAD favored
Elo Static
63.6%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
67.4%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
63.5%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.81 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
88% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LAD vs WSH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
133
projections · 115 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Tarik SkubalLAD7.4± 2.4high
- Blake SnellLAD7.2± 3.5low
- Tyler GlasnowLAD6.9± 3.0low
Hits
- Freddie FreemanLAD1.2± 0.9high
- Tommy EdmanLAD1.2± 1.3high
- Daylen LileWSH1.2± 1.3high
Total bases
- Daylen LileWSH2.6± 3.3high
- Mookie BettsLAD1.8± 1.8high
- Freddie FreemanLAD1.7± 1.6high
RBIs
- Daylen LileWSH1.1± 1.8high
- Brady HouseWSH0.8± 1.3high
- Mookie BettsLAD0.6± 1.3high
Earned runs
- Jackson KentWSH3.0± 2.2low
- Jake IrvinWSH3.0± 2.1medium
- Justin WrobleskiLAD2.7± 2.0high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
WSH
league avg
LAD
.754
OPS
.719
.757
.325
OBP
.319
▶.336
5.18
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.91
4.69
Team ERA
4.17
▶3.70
1.39
WHIP
1.31
▶1.16
7.9
K / 9
8.5
▶9.3
The One modelEdge
Fri, Sep 4WSH
Nationals
78-82
vs61.4%LAD
LAD★
Dodgers
98-71
WSH 38.6%win prob61.4% LAD
LAD 1544 · WSH 1471Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- TigersGuardians9/4 - 2:10 PM EDT
- BrewersReds9/4 - 6:10 PM EDT
- AngelsPirates9/4 - 6:40 PM EDT
- BravesPhillies9/4 - 6:40 PM EDT
- Red SoxOrioles9/4 - 7:05 PM EDT
- CubsMarlins9/4 - 7:10 PM EDT
- TigersGuardians9/4 - 7:10 PM EDT
- GiantsMets9/4 - 7:10 PM EDT
- TwinsWhite Sox9/4 - 7:40 PM EDT
- RaysRangers9/4 - 8:05 PM EDT
- DiamondbacksAstros9/4 - 8:10 PM EDT
- Blue JaysRoyals9/4 - 8:10 PM EDT
- CardinalsRockies9/4 - 8:40 PM EDT
- YankeesPadres9/4 - 9:40 PM EDT
- AthleticsMariners9/4 - 10:10 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
