Recent form
6-4
HOU +0.1 vs ARI -1.0 margin
HOU brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astros
ARI
ARI
74-67
PregameFri, 8:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
HOU
HOU
71-69
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketDaikin Park · Houston, Texas
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Merrill Kelly
SP · #29
9-12
W-L
5.08
ERA
1.48
WHIP
95
K
141.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@SFW(9-12)7.0 IP0 ER7 K
vsCHCL(8-12)5.2 IP3 ER4 K
@BOSL(8-11)4.0 IP6 ER2 K
Home starter
Cristian Javier
SP · #53
1-5
W-L
6.45
ERA
1.63
WHIP
42
K
44.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@NYML(1-5)4.1 IP3 ER4 K
vsATH-4.0 IP3 ER8 K
vsLAAL(1-4)4.0 IP2 ER5 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob41% / 60%
LeanHome · 10pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesSeries starts 9/4
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
HOU vs ARI.
HOU is 6-4 recently; ARI is 5-5.
59.5%
model · HOU win prob
Recent form
- HOU6–4+0.1
- ARI5–5-1.0
Situational
- HOU2d rest
- ARI2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. HOU has 0 straight road games; ARI has 0.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.1pp
Players to watch
- Peter LambertHOU5.6strikeouts · ±2.3
Peter Lambert · 5.6 K · last-10 5.7 vs season 5.5.
- Eduardo RodriguezARI4.3strikeouts · ±2.8
Eduardo Rodriguez · 4.3 K · last-10 4.3 vs season 4.2.
- Merrill KellyARI4.0strikeouts · ±1.8
Merrill Kelly · 4 K · last-10 4.2 vs season 3.8.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
59.3%
ensemble · HOU favored
Elo Static
56.2%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.6%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.5%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.83 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
95% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
HOU vs ARI.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
136
projections · 118 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Peter LambertHOU5.6± 2.3high
- Hunter BrownHOU5.5± 2.5medium
- Tatsuya ImaiHOU4.9± 4.0medium
Hits
- Geraldo PerdomoARI1.1± 0.6high
- Jeremy PenaHOU1.1± 0.7high
- Yordan AlvarezHOU1.1± 1.1high
Total bases
- Jeremy PenaHOU2.1± 1.9high
- Yordan AlvarezHOU1.8± 2.0high
- Ketel MarteARI1.7± 1.8high
RBIs
- Lars NootbaarARI0.6± 1.2high
- Isaac ParedesHOU0.6± 1.0high
- Gabriel MorenoARI0.5± 0.5high
Earned runs
- Ronel BlancoHOU3.3± 2.5low
- Ethan PeckoHOU3.0± 2.3low
- Merrill KellyARI2.8± 2.4high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
ARI
league avg
HOU
.710
OPS
.719
▶.723
.315
OBP
.318
.315
4.45
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.52
4.16
Team ERA
◀
4.17
4.58
1.29
WHIP
◀
1.31
1.36
6.9
K / 9
8.5
▶8.9
The One modelEdge
Fri, Sep 4ARI
Diamondbacks
78-83
vs59.5%HOU
HOU★
Astros
89-78
ARI 40.5%win prob59.5% HOU
HOU 1524 · ARI 1505Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
