St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Sep 4, 2026

STL

70-70

PregameFri, 8:40 PM EDTMLB.TV

COL

54-86

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Park factor

115 total idx

Coors Field run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

4-6

COL -0.4 vs STL -1.7 margin

COL brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Kyle Leahy

SP · #62

10-4

W-L

3.13

ERA

1.31

WHIP

118

129.1

Last 3 starts

vsPIT-3.0 IP1 ER3 K

@PHI-4.0 IP0 ER4 K

@CINW(10-4)5.0 IP0 ER6 K

Home starter

Ryan Feltner

SP · #18

5-9

W-L

5.84

ERA

1.55

WHIP

101.2

Last 3 starts

@ATLL(5-9)4.0 IP0 ER6 K

@WSHL(5-8)5.2 IP5 ER6 K

vsLADL(5-7)5.0 IP7 ER3 K

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Win prob65% / 35%

LeanAway · 15pp

Confidence★ Lock

Head to head

SeriesSTL leads series 2-1

TypeRegular Season Series

Scouting report · pre-game

COL vs STL.

COL is 4-6 recently; STL is 4-6.

34.8%

model · COL win prob

Recent form

COL4–6-0.4
STL4–6-1.7

Situational

COL2d rest
STL2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. COL has 0 straight road games; STL has 2.

Model angle

Weather and park add about 1.3 runs from the total environment.

▲Weather + park+1.3pp

Players to watch

Matthew LiberatoreSTL
5.8strikeouts · ±2.1
Matthew Liberatore · 5.8 K · last-10 6.2 vs season 5.2.
Kyle LeahySTL
4.9strikeouts · ±2.3
Kyle Leahy · 4.9 K · last-10 5.1 vs season 4.5.
Michael McGreevySTL
4.0strikeouts · ±1.3
Michael McGreevy · 4 K · last-10 4.2 vs season 3.8.

Head-to-head · 1-2 · last 3

COL is 1-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-08-07COL @ STL2–3
2026-08-08COL @ STL8–6
2026-08-09COL @ STL4–7

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

33.4%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
41.0%
P(COL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
37.8%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
42.1%
P(COL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.82 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

COL vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

131

projections · 102 high confidence

Strikeouts

Matthew LiberatoreSTL
5.8± 2.1high
Quinn MathewsSTL
5.0± 3.1low
Kyle LeahySTL
4.9± 2.3high

Hits

Jake McCarthyCOL
1.2± 0.6high
TJ RumfieldCOL
1.1± 0.6high
Jordan WalkerSTL
1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

Adael AmadorCOL
2.1± 2.6low
Jake McCarthyCOL
1.9± 1.6high
Thomas SaggeseSTL
1.9± 2.8high

RBIs

Adael AmadorCOL
1.0± 1.6low
Alec BurlesonSTL
0.8± 0.8high
Connor NorbyCOL
0.6± 1.6high

Earned runs

Ryan FeltnerCOL
3.7± 2.4high
Gabriel HughesCOL
3.5± 2.9low
Tomoyuki SuganoCOL
3.5± 2.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

league avg

COL

.700

OPS

.719

▶

.738

.315

OBP

.318

▶

.323

4.51

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.68

4.24

Team ERA

◀

4.17

5.42

1.35

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.52

8.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

6.9

The One model★ Lock

Fri, Sep 4

STL★

Cardinals

82-75

vs65.1%STL

COL

Rockies

60-100

STL 65.1%win prob34.9% COL

STL 1500 · COL 1413Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies

The matchup, end-to-end.

COL vs STL.

3 sub-models, blended.

COL vs STL.

Team rate stats vs league