Recent form
7-3
CLE +0.7 vs DET -3.0 margin
CLE brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians
DET
DET
64-75
PregameFri, 7:10 PM EDTMLB.TV, Apple TV
CLE
CLE
70-69
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketProgressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
A
Andrew Sears
SP · #64
0-1
W-L
6.75
ERA
1.35
WHIP
4
K
6.2
IP
Last 2 starts
vsLAD-2.2 IP0 ER1 K
@KCL(0-1)4.0 IP5 ER3 K
Home starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob39% / 61%
LeanHome · 11pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesCLE leads series 7-2
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
CLE vs DET.
CLE is 7-3 recently; DET is 3-7.
61.3%
model · CLE win prob
Recent form
- CLE7–3+0.7
- DET3–7-3.0
Situational
- CLE2d rest
- DET2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. CLE has 0 straight road games; DET has 3.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.1pp
Players to watch
- Gavin WilliamsCLE8.7strikeouts · ±3.3
Gavin Williams · 8.7 K · last-10 9.4 vs season 7.8.
- Parker MessickCLE5.5strikeouts · ±2.8
Parker Messick · 5.5 K · last-10 5.3 vs season 5.8.
- Joey CantilloCLE5.4strikeouts · ±2.4
Joey Cantillo · 5.4 K · last-10 5.5 vs season 5.2.
Head-to-head · 1-2 · last 3
CLE is 1-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-11CLE @ DET4–6
- 2026-08-12CLE @ DET6–4
- 2026-08-13CLE @ DET0–3
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
61.5%
ensemble · CLE favored
Elo Static
61.9%
P(CLE win)
45%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
61.9%
P(CLE win)
11%
weight
Bullpen Park
63.0%
P(CLE win)
45%
weight
Disagreement
0.55 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
96% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
2 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CLE vs DET.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
133
projections · 120 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Gavin WilliamsCLE8.7± 3.3high
- Parker MessickCLE5.5± 2.8high
- Joey CantilloCLE5.4± 2.4high
Hits
- Steven KwanCLE1.3± 1.5high
- Chase DeLauterCLE1.2± 1.5high
- Angel MartinezCLE1.0± 0.9high
Total bases
- Chase DeLauterCLE1.9± 2.7high
- Angel MartinezCLE1.7± 1.9high
- Jose RamirezCLE1.7± 2.1high
RBIs
- Jo AdellCLE0.8± 1.3high
- Jose RamirezCLE0.7± 1.9high
- Angel MartinezCLE0.6± 1.1high
Earned runs
- Yilber DiazDET3.7± 4.7low
- Framber ValdezDET2.9± 1.8high
- Tanner BibeeCLE2.7± 1.6high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
DET
league avg
CLE
.712
OPS
◀
.719
.686
.315
OBP
.318
.314
4.39
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.05
3.70
Team ERA
4.17
3.72
1.23
WHIP
◀
1.31
1.26
8.2
K / 9
8.5
▶9.5
The One modelEdge
Fri, Sep 4DET
Tigers
67-90
vs61.3%CLE
CLE★
Guardians
90-75
DET 38.7%win prob61.3% CLE
CLE 1527 · DET 1467Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- TigersGuardians9/4 - 2:10 PM EDT
- BrewersReds9/4 - 6:10 PM EDT
- AngelsPirates9/4 - 6:40 PM EDT
- BravesPhillies9/4 - 6:40 PM EDT
- Red SoxOrioles9/4 - 7:05 PM EDT
- CubsMarlins9/4 - 7:10 PM EDT
- GiantsMets9/4 - 7:10 PM EDT
- TwinsWhite Sox9/4 - 7:40 PM EDT
- RaysRangers9/4 - 8:05 PM EDT
- DiamondbacksAstros9/4 - 8:10 PM EDT
- Blue JaysRoyals9/4 - 8:10 PM EDT
- CardinalsRockies9/4 - 8:40 PM EDT
- YankeesPadres9/4 - 9:40 PM EDT
- AthleticsMariners9/4 - 10:10 PM EDT
- NationalsDodgers9/4 - 10:10 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
