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Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals
TOR
TOR
39-42
PregameFri, 8:10 PM EDT
KC
KC
34-48
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Home starter
TBD
Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.
Head to head
SeriesSeries starts 8/25
TypeRegular Season Series
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
49.2%
ensemble · TOR favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
KC vs TOR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 89 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Dylan CeaseTOR8.5± 2.8low
- Trey YesavageTOR5.4± 1.8low
- Kevin GausmanTOR5.3± 2.4medium
Hits
- Bobby Witt Jr.KC1.4± 1.1high
- Carter JensenKC1.3± 1.0high
- Jac CaglianoneKC1.1± 1.0high
Total bases
- Jac CaglianoneKC2.5± 3.4high
- Carter JensenKC2.2± 2.5high
- Kazuma OkamotoTOR2.0± 2.1high
RBIs
- Josh RojasKC1.0± 1.1low
- Jac CaglianoneKC0.8± 1.3high
- Kazuma OkamotoTOR0.8± 1.2high
Earned runs
- Seth LugoKC2.8± 2.4medium
- Kevin GausmanTOR2.8± 2.7medium
- Simeon Woods RichardsonTOR2.8± 3.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
TOR
league avg
KC
.702
OPS
.719
▶.712
.311
OBP
.319
▶.318
4.09
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.27
4.13
Team ERA
◀
4.18
4.66
1.32
WHIP
◀
1.31
1.40
8.9
K / 9
◀
8.5
7.9
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant