Recent form
4-6
CHC +3.7 vs MIL +0.8 margin
CHC brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs
MIL
MIL
86-53
PregameThu, 7:15 PM EDTMLB.TV, FOX
CHC
CHC
78-61
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketWrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Logan Henderson
SP · #43
9-2
W-L
2.48
ERA
0.83
WHIP
86
K
76.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsTEXW(9-2)7.0 IP1 ER7 K
vsATLW(8-2)6.0 IP1 ER4 K
@LADW(7-2)7.0 IP1 ER6 K
Home starter
Kevin Gausman
SP · #12
8-11
W-L
4.52
ERA
1.27
WHIP
156
K
155.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsCINW(8-11)5.0 IP5 ER7 K
@ARIW(7-11)7.0 IP0 ER6 K
vsCHW-4.1 IP3 ER5 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob41% / 59%
LeanHome · 9pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesSeries tied 1-1
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
CHC vs MIL.
CHC is 4-6 recently; MIL is 6-4.
59.1%
model · CHC win prob
Recent form
- CHC4–6+3.7
- MIL6–4+0.8
Situational
- CHC2d rest
- MIL2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. CHC has 0 straight road games; MIL has 2.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
Players to watch
- Jacob MisiorowskiMIL8.6strikeouts · ±2.3
Jacob Misiorowski · 8.6 K · last-10 8.4 vs season 8.9.
- Kevin GausmanCHC5.6strikeouts · ±2.2
Kevin Gausman · 5.6 K · last-10 5.6 vs season 5.6.
- Shota ImanagaCHC5.6strikeouts · ±2.0
Shota Imanaga · 5.6 K · last-10 5.6 vs season 5.5.
Head-to-head · 1-1 · last 2
CHC is 1-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-31MIL @ CHC3–17
- 2026-09-01MIL @ CHC9–4
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
58.9%
ensemble · CHC favored
Elo Static
54.2%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.8%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.8%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.29 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
91% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CHC vs MIL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
137
projections · 127 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Jacob MisiorowskiMIL8.6± 2.3high
- Logan HendersonMIL6.2± 2.4low
- Kevin GausmanCHC5.6± 2.2high
Hits
- William ContrerasMIL1.5± 1.2high
- Seiya SuzukiCHC1.3± 1.3high
- Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC1.2± 1.3high
Total bases
- Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC2.9± 4.2high
- Alex BregmanCHC2.4± 3.9high
- Seiya SuzukiCHC2.3± 2.4high
RBIs
- Alex BregmanCHC0.9± 1.4high
- Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC0.9± 2.0high
- Carson KellyCHC0.8± 1.3high
Earned runs
- Kevin GausmanCHC3.0± 1.8high
- Matthew BoydCHC2.6± 2.4medium
- Robert GasserMIL2.6± 2.1medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
MIL
league avg
CHC
.738
OPS
.719
▶.773
.339
OBP
.319
.340
5.00
Runs / G
4.50
▶5.37
3.47
Team ERA
◀
4.17
4.17
1.17
WHIP
◀
1.31
1.26
9.6
K / 9
◀
8.5
7.8
The One modelEdge
Thu, Sep 3MIL
Brewers
90-67
vs59.1%CHC
CHC★
Cubs
91-72
MIL 40.9%win prob59.1% CHC
CHC 1552 · MIL 1547Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
