Park factor
98 total idx
PNC Park run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Pirates
LAA
LAA
53-87
PregameFri, 6:40 PM EDTMLB.TV, Apple TV
PIT
PIT
69-72
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketPNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Line movement
200 snapshots
PIT spread
-1.5
open -1.5
Total
O/U 8.5
open O/U 8.5
PIT no-vig %
64.3%
open 64.3%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Ryan Johnson
SP · #32
3-7
W-L
5.47
ERA
1.42
WHIP
52
K
72.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsPHI-5.0 IP1 ER2 K
@TEXW(3-7)7.0 IP0 ER3 K
vsKCL(2-7)5.1 IP2 ER4 K
Home starter
Jared Jones
SP · #17
2-6
W-L
4.83
ERA
1.28
WHIP
83
K
72.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@STLL(2-6)4.2 IP3 ER6 K
@LAD-4.0 IP2 ER5 K
vsBOSL(2-5)5.0 IP1 ER7 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 8.5
Money+168 / -205
Model edge
Win prob38% / 62%
LeanHome · 12pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
No prior meetings logged this season yet.
Place a bet
Take PIT on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Scouting report · pre-game
PIT vs LAA.
PIT is 6-4 recently; LAA is 1-9.
61.8%
model · PIT win prob
Recent form
- PIT6–4+0.0
- LAA1–9-1.2
Situational
- PIT1d restB2B
- LAA2d rest
- -1.0d differential
LAA has 1 more rest day. PIT has 0 straight road games; LAA has 0.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.2 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.2pp
Players to watch
- Reid DetmersLAA6.5strikeouts · ±2.5
Reid Detmers · 6.5 K · last-10 6.5 vs season 6.5.
- Paul SkenesPIT6.2strikeouts · ±2.3
Paul Skenes · 6.2 K · last-10 6 vs season 6.4.
- Braxton AshcraftPIT5.4strikeouts · ±2.4
Braxton Ashcraft · 5.4 K · last-10 4.9 vs season 6.1.
Line move
open -205→-205flat
The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
61.9%
ensemble · PIT favored
Elo Static
65.5%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
66.2%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
65.9%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.29 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
98% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PIT vs LAA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 107 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Reid DetmersLAA6.5± 2.5high
- Paul SkenesPIT6.2± 2.3high
- Jared JonesPIT5.6± 2.1medium
Hits
- Zach NetoLAA1.1± 0.9high
- Nick GonzalesPIT1.1± 1.0high
- Oneil CruzPIT1.1± 1.3high
Total bases
- Zach NetoLAA2.1± 2.4high
- Vaughn GrissomLAA1.9± 2.8high
- Brandon LowePIT1.8± 2.4high
RBIs
- Vaughn GrissomLAA0.7± 1.5high
- Oneil CruzPIT0.7± 1.3high
- Zach NetoLAA0.5± 0.5high
Earned runs
- Grayson RodriguezLAA3.0± 2.1medium
- Yusei KikuchiLAA3.0± 2.8low
- Paul SkenesPIT2.6± 1.8high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
LAA
league avg
PIT
.680
OPS
.719
▶.734
.309
OBP
.319
▶.331
4.08
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.90
4.27
Team ERA
4.17
▶4.22
1.35
WHIP
1.31
▶1.31
9.1
K / 9
8.5
▶9.2
The One modelEdge
Fri, Sep 4LAA
Angels
61-102
vs61.8%PIT
PIT★
Pirates
74-80
LAA 38.2%win prob61.8% PIT
PIT 1494 · LAA 1407Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
