Park factor
96 total idx
Petco Park run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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New York Yankees at San Diego Padres
NYY
NYY
80-60
PregameFri, 9:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
SD
SD
73-67
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketPetco Park · San Diego, California
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Max Fried
SP · #54
4-4
W-L
2.80
ERA
1.00
WHIP
83
K
90.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsBOS-3.2 IP1 ER4 K
vsSEAL(4-4)5.0 IP1 ER4 K
vsATL-6.1 IP0 ER7 K
Home starter
Walker Buehler
SP · #10
8-6
W-L
4.66
ERA
1.36
WHIP
111
K
131.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@TB-5.0 IP3 ER3 K
vsMINW(8-6)6.0 IP1 ER4 K
@NYML(7-6)6.0 IP2 ER4 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob43% / 57%
LeanHome · 7pp
ConfidenceLean
Head to head
SeriesSeries starts 9/4
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
SD vs NYY.
SD is 3-7 recently; NYY is 6-4.
57.5%
model · SD win prob
Recent form
- SD3–7+0.1
- NYY6–4+1.5
Situational
- SD2d rest
- NYY2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. SD has 6 straight road games; NYY has 3.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.3 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.3pp
Players to watch
- Cam SchlittlerNYY7.6strikeouts · ±2.4
Cam Schlittler · 7.6 K · last-10 7.9 vs season 7.2.
- Michael KingSD5.2strikeouts · ±1.3
Michael King · 5.2 K · last-10 5.3 vs season 5.
- Will WarrenNYY4.5strikeouts · ±2.0
Will Warren · 4.5 K · last-10 4.2 vs season 4.9.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
52.0%
ensemble · SD favored
Elo Static
50.2%
P(SD win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
48.0%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
49.1%
P(SD win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.90 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
94% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
SD vs NYY.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
135
projections · 123 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Cam SchlittlerNYY7.6± 2.4high
- Gerrit ColeNYY6.6± 2.4medium
- Carlos RodonNYY5.3± 2.5low
Hits
- Ben RiceNYY1.2± 0.8high
- Cody BellingerNYY1.2± 1.1high
- Luis Garcia Jr.NYY1.2± 1.6high
Total bases
- Fernando Tatis Jr.SD2.3± 3.5high
- Luis Garcia Jr.NYY2.0± 2.9high
- Ben RiceNYY1.9± 1.3high
RBIs
- Ben RiceNYY0.7± 1.1high
- Austin WellsNYY0.6± 1.6high
- Cody BellingerNYY0.6± 1.1high
Earned runs
- Luis GilNYY2.8± 3.2low
- Elmer RodriguezNYY2.7± 1.4low
- Walker BuehlerSD2.6± 1.8high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
NYY
league avg
SD
.720
OPS
◀
.719
.702
.311
OBP
.318
▶.315
4.54
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.24
3.24
Team ERA
◀
4.17
3.94
1.17
WHIP
◀
1.31
1.29
9.0
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.2
The One modelLean
Fri, Sep 4NYY
Yankees
91-72
vs57.5%SD
SD★
Padres
82-79
NYY 42.5%win prob57.5% SD
SD 1520 · NYY 1542Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- TigersGuardians9/4 - 2:10 PM EDT
- BrewersReds9/4 - 6:10 PM EDT
- AngelsPirates9/4 - 6:40 PM EDT
- BravesPhillies9/4 - 6:40 PM EDT
- Red SoxOrioles9/4 - 7:05 PM EDT
- CubsMarlins9/4 - 7:10 PM EDT
- TigersGuardians9/4 - 7:10 PM EDT
- GiantsMets9/4 - 7:10 PM EDT
- TwinsWhite Sox9/4 - 7:40 PM EDT
- RaysRangers9/4 - 8:05 PM EDT
- DiamondbacksAstros9/4 - 8:10 PM EDT
- Blue JaysRoyals9/4 - 8:10 PM EDT
- CardinalsRockies9/4 - 8:40 PM EDT
- AthleticsMariners9/4 - 10:10 PM EDT
- NationalsDodgers9/4 - 10:10 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
