Park factor
97 total idx
Oriole Park at Camden Yards run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles
BOS
BOS
75-64
PregameThu, 7:15 PM EDTMLB.TV, FOX
BAL
BAL
69-70
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketOriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Jake Bennett
SP · #64
9-6
W-L
3.27
ERA
1.04
WHIP
74
K
93.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@NYYW(9-6)6.0 IP0 ER7 K
vsSFW(8-6)7.0 IP3 ER6 K
@PITL(7-6)4.0 IP4 ER6 K
Home starter
Brandon Young
SP · #63
9-3
W-L
3.38
ERA
1.34
WHIP
103
K
130.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@ATH-7.0 IP1 ER4 K
vsTB-5.2 IP2 ER3 K
@TB-4.0 IP4 ER3 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob61% / 39%
LeanAway · 11pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesBOS leads series 5-4
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
BAL vs BOS.
BAL is 7-3 recently; BOS is 5-5.
38.6%
model · BAL win prob
Recent form
- BAL7–3+1.5
- BOS5–5-1.6
Situational
- BAL2d rest
- BOS2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. BAL has 8 straight road games; BOS has 0.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.3 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.3pp
Players to watch
- Payton TolleBOS6.9strikeouts · ±2.7
Payton Tolle · 6.9 K · last-10 7.3 vs season 6.4.
- Trevor RogersBAL5.5strikeouts · ±1.7
Trevor Rogers · 5.5 K · last-10 6 vs season 4.8.
- Shane BazBAL5.2strikeouts · ±3.1
Shane Baz · 5.2 K · last-10 5.2 vs season 5.1.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.4%
ensemble · BOS favored
Elo Static
42.9%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
42.8%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
42.6%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.13 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
99% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
BAL vs BOS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
135
projections · 123 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Payton TolleBOS6.9± 2.7high
- Trevor RogersBAL5.5± 1.7high
- Patrick SandovalBOS5.3± 1.8low
Hits
- Roman AnthonyBOS1.2± 0.9high
- Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1.1± 1.1high
- Blaze AlexanderBAL1.0± 1.0high
Total bases
- Mickey GasperBOS2.0± 2.5high
- Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL1.7± 2.2high
- Gunnar HendersonBAL1.7± 3.7high
RBIs
- Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL0.7± 1.1high
- Coby MayoBAL0.7± 1.2high
- Leody TaverasBAL0.7± 1.3high
Earned runs
- Jedixson PaezBOS3.5± 4.5low
- Chris BassittBAL2.7± 1.6medium
- Kyle BradishBAL2.6± 1.9high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
BOS
league avg
BAL
.728
OPS
◀
.719
.714
.323
OBP
◀
.319
.317
4.49
Runs / G
4.50
4.53
3.64
Team ERA
◀
4.17
4.16
1.24
WHIP
◀
1.31
1.35
8.6
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.0
The One modelEdge
Thu, Sep 3BOS★
Red Sox
85-78
vs61.3%BOS
BAL
Orioles
73-92
BOS 61.3%win prob38.7% BAL
BOS 1558 · BAL 1485Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
