Recent form
4-6
MIN +0.9 vs CHW +0.1 margin
MIN brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox
MIN
MIN
67-73
PregameFri, 7:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
CHW
CHW
73-66
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketRate Field · Chicago, Illinois
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Zebby Matthews
SP · #52
9-8
W-L
4.58
ERA
1.26
WHIP
93
K
112.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsCHWW(9-8)8.1 IP1 ER5 K
@ATHW(8-8)7.0 IP1 ER7 K
vsATLW(7-8)5.2 IP1 ER4 K
Home starter
Erick Fedde
SP · #47
7-8
W-L
4.16
ERA
1.37
WHIP
88
K
123.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@MINW(7-8)5.0 IP2 ER4 K
vsNYM-4.0 IP0 ER2 K
@CHC-4.2 IP0 ER5 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob40% / 60%
LeanHome · 10pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesCHW lead series 6-4
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
CHW vs MIN.
CHW is 6-4 recently; MIN is 4-6.
59.9%
model · CHW win prob
Recent form
- CHW6–4+0.1
- MIN4–6+0.9
Situational
- CHW2d rest
- MIN2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. CHW has 6 straight road games; MIN has 0.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Taj BradleyMIN6.6strikeouts · ±2.9
Taj Bradley · 6.6 K · last-10 6.6 vs season 6.6.
- Sean BurkeCHW6.0strikeouts · ±3.0
Sean Burke · 6 K · last-10 6.1 vs season 6.
- Connor PrielippMIN5.8strikeouts · ±1.7
Connor Prielipp · 5.8 K · last-10 6 vs season 5.6.
Head-to-head · 2-1 · last 3
CHW is 2-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-28CHW @ MIN7–4
- 2026-08-29CHW @ MIN3–2
- 2026-08-30CHW @ MIN1–5
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
59.9%
ensemble · CHW favored
Elo Static
57.4%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.9%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
56.9%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.41 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
97% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CHW vs MIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
135
projections · 116 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Taj BradleyMIN6.6± 2.9high
- Sean BurkeCHW6.0± 3.0high
- Connor PrielippMIN5.8± 1.7high
Hits
- Kaelen CulpepperMIN1.2± 1.1high
- Luke KeaschallMIN1.2± 0.8high
- Chase MeidrothCHW1.1± 1.1high
Total bases
- Tristan PetersCHW2.3± 2.9high
- Ryan JeffersMIN2.1± 2.9high
- Brooks LeeMIN2.0± 1.8high
RBIs
- Brooks LeeMIN0.8± 1.2high
- Colson MontgomeryCHW0.7± 1.1high
- Ryan JeffersMIN0.7± 1.5high
Earned runs
- Dean KremerMIN3.5± 3.1low
- Connor PrielippMIN3.1± 2.3high
- Zebby MatthewsMIN3.1± 2.5medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
MIN
league avg
CHW
.729
OPS
.719
.725
.320
OBP
.318
.319
4.70
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.75
4.63
Team ERA
4.17
▶4.13
1.38
WHIP
1.31
▶1.31
8.5
K / 9
8.5
8.4
The One modelEdge
Fri, Sep 4MIN
Twins
89-79
vs59.9%CHW
CHW★
White Sox
89-73
MIN 40.1%win prob59.9% CHW
CHW 1526 · MIN 1498Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- TigersGuardians9/4 - 2:10 PM EDT
- BrewersReds9/4 - 6:10 PM EDT
- AngelsPirates9/4 - 6:40 PM EDT
- BravesPhillies9/4 - 6:40 PM EDT
- Red SoxOrioles9/4 - 7:05 PM EDT
- CubsMarlins9/4 - 7:10 PM EDT
- TigersGuardians9/4 - 7:10 PM EDT
- GiantsMets9/4 - 7:10 PM EDT
- RaysRangers9/4 - 8:05 PM EDT
- DiamondbacksAstros9/4 - 8:10 PM EDT
- Blue JaysRoyals9/4 - 8:10 PM EDT
- CardinalsRockies9/4 - 8:40 PM EDT
- YankeesPadres9/4 - 9:40 PM EDT
- AthleticsMariners9/4 - 10:10 PM EDT
- NationalsDodgers9/4 - 10:10 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
