Recent form
5-5
ARI +0.1 vs CIN -1.6 margin
ARI brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks
CIN
CIN
61-67
PregameSat, 8:10 PM EDTMLB.TV
ARI
ARI
67-61
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketChase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Rhett Lowder
SP · #25
4-8
W-L
5.17
ERA
1.49
WHIP
82
K
101.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsSTL-6.2 IP4 ER5 K
@CHWL(4-8)5.1 IP2 ER4 K
vsATHW(4-7)6.0 IP2 ER3 K
Home starter
Michael Soroka
SP · #34
8-3
W-L
2.93
ERA
1.11
WHIP
88
K
92.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@ATL-5.2 IP2 ER5 K
vsCOL-4.1 IP0 ER4 K
vsMIN-1.0 IP0 ER0 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob41% / 59%
LeanHome · 9pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesSeries tied 1-1
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
ARI vs CIN.
ARI is 5-5 recently; CIN is 4-6.
59.4%
model · ARI win prob
Recent form
- ARI5–5+0.1
- CIN4–6-1.6
Situational
- ARI3d rest
- CIN2d rest
- +1.0d differential
ARI has 1 more rest day. ARI has 6 straight road games; CIN has 0.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Players to watch
- Chase BurnsCIN6.5strikeouts · ±2.5
Chase Burns · 6.5 K · last-10 6.4 vs season 6.6.
- Brady SingerCIN4.9strikeouts · ±1.4
Brady Singer · 4.9 K · last-10 5.2 vs season 4.3.
- Andrew AbbottCIN4.3strikeouts · ±2.1
Andrew Abbott · 4.3 K · last-10 4.4 vs season 4.2.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
60.3%
ensemble · ARI favored
Elo Static
60.0%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
62.7%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
61.6%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.10 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
93% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ARI vs CIN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 106 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Chase BurnsCIN6.5± 2.5high
- Brady SingerCIN4.9± 1.4high
- Michael SorokaARI4.8± 2.8medium
Hits
- Gabriel MorenoARI1.3± 0.7high
- Sal StewartCIN1.1± 0.6high
- Corbin CarrollARI1.0± 0.8high
Total bases
- Gabriel MorenoARI2.4± 1.4high
- Corbin CarrollARI2.1± 2.4high
- Nolan ArenadoARI2.1± 2.8high
RBIs
- Gabriel MorenoARI1.0± 1.1high
- Nolan ArenadoARI0.8± 1.6high
- Sal StewartCIN0.7± 1.2high
Earned runs
- Merrill KellyARI3.1± 2.3high
- Rhett LowderCIN2.7± 2.6high
- Zack LittellARI2.6± 2.7high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
CIN
league avg
ARI
.695
OPS
.719
▶.714
.305
OBP
.318
▶.316
4.09
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.52
4.47
Team ERA
4.17
▶4.18
1.40
WHIP
1.30
▶1.29
8.2
K / 9
◀
8.5
6.9
The One modelEdge
Sat, Aug 22CIN
Reds
70-79
vs59.4%ARI
ARI★
Diamondbacks
71-77
CIN 40.6%win prob59.4% ARI
ARI 1505 · CIN 1459Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
