Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in GS at CHI?

The model favors GS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

25-10

PregameFri, 7:30 PM EDTION

CHI

14-22

ATS/GS -6.5O/U/161.5ML/GS-250

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

3 signals · model + market

Recent form

7-3

GS +6.4 vs CHI -1.6 margin

GS brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Rest edge

+1.0 days

CHI 3 rest vs GS 2

CHI has fresher legs, a real late-game edge on the second night.

Model rank

+246.0

CHI Elo vs GS Elo

GS owns the cleaner matchup rating, forcing CHI uphill early today again.

WNBAFri, Aug 218/21 - 7:30 PM EDTSeriestied 1-1VegasGS -6.5

Preview · WNBA

olden State Valkyries visit Chicago Sky Friday at 8/21 - 7:30 PM EDT. GS is rolling — 6-1 in their last 7. CHI is 4-4 in their last 8.

Vegas opened GS as a 6.5-point favorite with the total at 161.5. CHI's moneyline implies a 33% break-even, GS the inverse.

For bettors: the GS side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 161.5 total reads near the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Line just movedSpread ↗ 1.0pt over 6.5h19m ago

Updated 0s ago

Team stats

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

FG %

Season series

Series tied 1-1

May 14

CHI69@

GS63

Aug 13

CHI71@

GS91

Aug 21

GS@

CHItoday

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

GS -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

1.0pt· 6.5h

Total

161.5

Standard · -3.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.5h

Moneyline

GS-25071%

CHI+20533%

10· 6.5h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet GS -6.5↗SpreadBet GS -6.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

161.5

-3.0 since open

Scouting report

GS @ CHI

8/21 - 7:30 PM EDT

StorylineGS 8 spots ahead of CHI in power rank.

Rest going in

CHI +1 day

GSStandard

1 day

last game Aug 19

CHIStandard

2 days

last game Aug 18

Model edge vs market

Strong edge

Spread

Market

GS -6.5

Model

GS -38.1

Edge

+31.6 pts

Total

Market

161.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

GS -250

Model

Edge

aligned

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

GSmetricCHI

25-10

Record

14-22

Conf rank

+6.2

Pt diff

-2.1

Streak

7-3

Last 10

5-5

84.6

Power score

46.5

Power rank

66.6

Sched ahead

75.0

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Betting line

GS -6.5·O/U 161.5·GS -250/CHI +205

DraftKings · via ESPN

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Scouting report · pre-game

CHI vs GS.

CHI is 5-5 recently; GS is 7-3.

16.9%

model · CHI win prob

Recent form

CHI5–5-1.6
GS7–3+6.4

Situational

CHI3d rest
GS2d rest
+1.0d differential

CHI has 1 more rest day. CHI has 0 straight road games; GS has 0.

Model angle

+14.6ppon GS

GS's edge is mostly model confidence plus recent form. Rest advantage is the main caution flag.

▲Model confidence+1.5pp
▲Recent form+0.8pp
▲Line steam+0.4pp

Players to watch

Sydney TaylorCHI
17.0points · ±6.8
Sydney Taylor · 17 pts · last-10 18.6 vs season 14.5.
Kamilla CardosoCHI
15.5points · ±5.4
Kamilla Cardoso · 15.5 pts · last-10 16.3 vs season 14.4.
Gabby WilliamsGS
14.6points · ±4.9
Gabby Williams · 14.6 pts · last-10 14.5 vs season 14.9.

Head-to-head · 1-4 · last 5

CHI is 1-4 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2025-06-28CHI @ GS78–83
2025-08-01GS @ CHI73–66
2025-08-15GS @ CHI90–59
2026-05-13CHI @ GS69–63
2026-08-12CHI @ GS71–91

Line move

open +195→+205toward GS

The market has moved 1.1pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

19.2%

ensemble · GS favored

Elo Static
26.6%
P(CHI win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
28.0%
P(CHI win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
31.6%
P(CHI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.12 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like GS.

GS's edge is mostly model confidence plus recent form. Rest advantage is the main caution flag.

+14.6

pp edge · GS

+1.04

CLV pp

5.0u · large

on GS

92.0%

±7.3pp band

5u large — +20.6pp edge, quarter Kelly capped.

Edge

+23.5pp

+8.9pp post-cal

Kelly

72.0%

5.0% sized

Decimal

1.40

+20.6pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 14.6pp · GS over CHI

▲
Model confidence90% conf
GS clears the model's lock threshold.
+1.5pp
▲
Recent form70% conf
GS is 4-1 over its last 5; CHI is 2-3.
+0.8pp
▲
Line steam67% conf
The market moved 1pp toward GS since open.
+0.4pp
▲
Venue split68% conf
GS's venue form is 5.1pp stronger in the recent sample.
+0.3pp
▼
Rest advantage65% conf
CHI has the rest edge entering this game.
-0.3pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
GS has taken 2 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.2pp

Open price

-238

Close price

-250

Open no-vig

67.5%

Close no-vig

68.5%

Market came to the model

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in GS at CHI?: The model favors GS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

CHI vs GS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 100 high confidence

Points

Sydney TaylorCHI
17.0± 6.8high
Rickea JacksonCHI
16.0± 11.0low
Kamilla CardosoCHI
15.5± 5.4high

Rebounds

Kamilla CardosoCHI
9.1± 3.2high
Azura StevensCHI
6.9± 2.7high
Kiah StokesGS
5.9± 2.1high

Assists

Veronica BurtonGS
6.0± 2.3high
Natasha CloudCHI
5.7± 2.1high
Courtney VanderslootCHI
5.2± 2.2medium

Blocks

Kiah StokesGS
1.6± 1.4high
Kamilla CardosoCHI
1.3± 0.9high
Rickea JacksonCHI
1.2± 1.6low

Steals

Gabby WilliamsGS
1.8± 1.1high
Veronica BurtonGS
1.7± 1.0high
Courtney VanderslootCHI
1.3± 1.6medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Golden State ValkyriesChicago Sky

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop

Golden State Valkyries at Chicago Sky

CHI vs GS.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like GS.

CHI vs GS.