Recent form
6-4
LAA +2.1 vs TEX -1.3 margin
LAA brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
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Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers
LAA
LAA
51-77
PregameSat, 7:05 PM EDTMLB.TV
TEX
TEX
63-65
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
1 signal · model + marketGlobe Life Field · Arlington, Texas
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Ryan Johnson
SP · #32
2-7
W-L
6.41
ERA
1.54
WHIP
47
K
60.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsKCL(2-7)5.1 IP2 ER4 K
vsTEX-4.1 IP1 ER5 K
@BAL-4.2 IP1 ER1 K
Home starter
Cody Bradford
SP · #61
0-1
W-L
2.93
ERA
1.43
WHIP
10
K
15.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@ATH-4.0 IP2 ER4 K
@LAAL(0-1)7.0 IP3 ER1 K
vsSF-4.1 IP0 ER5 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob39% / 61%
LeanHome · 11pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesSeries tied 1-1
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
TEX vs LAA.
TEX is 4-6 recently; LAA is 6-4.
60.7%
model · TEX win prob
Recent form
- TEX4–6-1.3
- LAA6–4+2.1
Situational
- TEX2d rest
- LAA2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. TEX has 0 straight road games; LAA has 3.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
Players to watch
- Reid DetmersLAA6.7strikeouts · ±2.1
Reid Detmers · 6.7 K · last-10 6.7 vs season 6.7.
- Jacob deGromTEX6.3strikeouts · ±2.5
Jacob deGrom · 6.3 K · last-10 6.3 vs season 6.4.
- MacKenzie GoreTEX6.1strikeouts · ±1.9
MacKenzie Gore · 6.1 K · last-10 6.2 vs season 5.9.
Head-to-head · 1-3 · last 4
TEX is 1-3 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-10TEX @ LAA4–1
- 2026-08-11TEX @ LAA2–3
- 2026-08-12TEX @ LAA2–5
- 2026-08-13TEX @ LAA0–7
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
61.6%
ensemble · TEX favored
Elo Static
62.0%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
66.2%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
62.2%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.92 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
87% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
TEX vs LAA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 105 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Reid DetmersLAA6.7± 2.1high
- Jacob deGromTEX6.3± 2.5high
- MacKenzie GoreTEX6.1± 1.9high
Hits
- Nolan SchanuelLAA1.1± 1.0high
- Brandon NimmoTEX1.0± 0.9high
- Corey SeagerTEX1.0± 1.1high
Total bases
- Corey SeagerTEX1.7± 2.3high
- Jake BurgerTEX1.6± 2.0high
- Mike TroutLAA1.5± 1.5high
RBIs
- Nolan SchanuelLAA0.7± 1.2high
- Jake BurgerTEX0.7± 1.2high
- Brandon NimmoTEX0.5± 1.0high
Earned runs
- Grayson RodriguezLAA3.5± 2.5low
- MacKenzie GoreTEX2.9± 2.1high
- Kumar RockerTEX2.7± 2.3high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
LAA
league avg
TEX
.687
OPS
.719
▶.708
.311
OBP
.318
▶.315
4.14
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.02
4.34
Team ERA
4.17
▶4.25
1.34
WHIP
1.30
▶1.30
9.2
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.6
The One modelEdge
Sat, Aug 22LAA
Angels
59-92
vs60.7%TEX
TEX★
Rangers
79-74
LAA 39.3%win prob60.7% TEX
TEX 1486 · LAA 1425Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- Blue JaysYankees8/22 - 1:35 PM EDT
- BravesBrewers8/22 - 2:10 PM EDT
- NationalsMarlins8/22 - 4:10 PM EDT
- CardinalsPhillies8/22 - 6:05 PM EDT
- RaysOrioles8/22 - 7:05 PM EDT
- AthleticsAstros8/22 - 7:10 PM EDT
- MetsWhite Sox8/22 - 7:10 PM EDT
- GiantsRed Sox8/22 - 7:15 PM EDT
- TigersRoyals8/22 - 7:15 PM EDT
- CubsMariners8/22 - 7:15 PM EDT
- PiratesDodgers8/22 - 7:15 PM EDT
- GuardiansRockies8/22 - 8:10 PM EDT
- RedsDiamondbacks8/22 - 8:10 PM EDT
- TwinsPadres8/22 - 8:40 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
