Park factor
97 total idx
Oriole Park at Camden Yards run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles
TB
TB
76-51
PregameSat, 7:05 PM EDTMLB.TV
BAL
BAL
61-67
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketOriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Shane McClanahan
SP · #18
9-6
W-L
3.25
ERA
1.12
WHIP
94
K
102.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsBAL-3.1 IP3 ER3 K
vsTEX-3.0 IP1 ER3 K
vsCLEW(9-6)5.0 IP1 ER3 K
Home starter
Brandon Young
SP · #63
9-3
W-L
3.52
ERA
1.35
WHIP
96
K
117.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@TB-4.0 IP4 ER3 K
@MINW(9-3)6.0 IP1 ER4 K
vsLAAL(8-3)4.1 IP3 ER4 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob71% / 29%
LeanAway · 21pp
Confidence★ Lock
Head to head
SeriesBAL wins series 2-0
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
BAL vs TB.
BAL has dropped 4 straight; TB is 5-5 over its last 10.
28.7%
model · BAL win prob
Recent form
- BAL4–6-0.3
- TB5–5-0.1
Situational
- BAL2d rest
- TB2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. BAL has 0 straight road games; TB has 0.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.3 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.3pp
Players to watch
- Shane BazBAL5.5strikeouts · ±3.0
Shane Baz · 5.5 K · last-10 5.6 vs season 5.3.
- Trevor RogersBAL5.5strikeouts · ±1.7
Trevor Rogers · 5.5 K · last-10 6 vs season 4.7.
- Ian SeymourTB5.4strikeouts · ±2.8
Ian Seymour · 5.4 K · last-10 7 vs season 2.9.
Head-to-head · 3-1 · last 4
BAL is 3-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-14BAL @ TB6–5
- 2026-08-15BAL @ TB4–3
- 2026-08-16BAL @ TB10–2
- 2026-08-17BAL @ TB6–7
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
28.4%
ensemble · TB favored
Elo Static
37.0%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
36.6%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
36.8%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.16 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
99% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
BAL vs TB.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
127
projections · 116 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Shane BazBAL5.5± 3.0high
- Trevor RogersBAL5.5± 1.7high
- Ian SeymourTB5.4± 2.8high
Hits
- Chandler SimpsonTB1.6± 0.9high
- Yandy DiazTB1.6± 1.0high
- Pete AlonsoBAL1.5± 0.9high
Total bases
- Pete AlonsoBAL3.0± 2.7high
- Yandy DiazTB2.7± 1.9high
- Gunnar HendersonBAL1.9± 3.0high
RBIs
- Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL1.0± 1.4high
- Pete AlonsoBAL0.9± 1.3high
- Junior CamineroTB0.8± 1.0high
Earned runs
- Freddy PeraltaTB3.5± 3.2high
- Chris BassittBAL2.7± 1.9low
- Shane BazBAL2.5± 1.5high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
TB
league avg
BAL
.737
OPS
◀
.719
.715
.331
OBP
◀
.318
.319
4.56
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.48
3.86
Team ERA
◀
4.17
4.23
1.17
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.35
8.3
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.1
The One model★ Lock
Sat, Aug 22TB★
Rays
104-51
vs71.4%TB
BAL
Orioles
65-89
TB 71.4%win prob28.6% BAL
TB 1578 · BAL 1461Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
