Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in IND at DAL?

The model favors IND, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

IND

24-12

PregameThu, 8:00 PM EDTPrime Video

DAL

20-16

ATS/IND -3.5O/U/185.5ML/IND-166

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

3 signals · model + market

Recent form

8-2

IND +8.8 vs DAL -3.1 margin

IND brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Rest edge

+1.0 days

DAL 3 rest vs IND 2

DAL has fresher legs, a real late-game edge on the second night.

Model rank

+112.6

DAL Elo vs IND Elo

IND owns the cleaner matchup rating, forcing DAL uphill early today again.

WNBAThu, Aug 208/20 - 8:00 PM EDTSeriestied 1-1VegasIND -3.5

Preview · WNBA

ndiana Fever visit Dallas Wings Thursday at 8/20 - 8:00 PM EDT. IND arrives on a 5-game win streak (6-2 in their last 8).

Vegas opened IND as a 3.5-point favorite with the total at 185.5. DAL's moneyline implies a 42% break-even, IND the inverse.

For bettors: the IND side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 185.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Line just movedSpread ↗ 1.0pt over 6.1h39m ago

Updated 0s ago

Team stats

IND

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

FG %

Season series

Series tied 1-1

May 9

DAL107@

IND104

Aug 14

DAL87@

IND98

Aug 21

IND@

DALtoday

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

IND -3.5

Between — and 5

1.0pt· 6.1h

Total

185.5

High-scoring · +20.5 vs avg

Moneyline

IND-16662%

DAL+14042%

10· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet IND -3.5↗SpreadBet IND -3.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

+2.0 since open

Total

185.5

-1.0 since open

Scouting report

IND @ DAL

8/20 - 8:00 PM EDT

StorylineIND riding a 5-game win streak.

Rest going in

DAL +1 day

INDStandard

2 days

last game Aug 18

DALLong rest

3 days

last game Aug 17

Model edge vs market

Lean only

Spread

Market

IND -3.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Total

Market

185.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

IND -166

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

INDmetricDAL

24-12

Record

20-16

Conf rank

+5.9

Pt diff

+2.0

Streak

8-2

Last 10

3-7

58.9

Sched ahead

63.5

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Betting line

IND -3.5·O/U 185.5·IND -166/DAL +140

DraftKings · via ESPN

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Scouting report · pre-game

DAL vs IND.

DAL is 3-7 recently; IND is 8-2.

36.3%

model · DAL win prob

Recent form

DAL3–7-3.1
IND8–2+8.8

Situational

DAL3d rest
IND2d rest
+1.0d differential

DAL has 1 more rest day. DAL has 2 straight road games; IND has 2.

Model angle

+3.7ppon IND

IND's edge is mostly line steam plus recent form. Model confidence is the main caution flag.

▲Line steam+2.1pp
▲Recent form+1.9pp
▲Venue split+1.8pp

Players to watch

Kelsey MitchellIND
25.9points · ±4.4
Kelsey Mitchell · 25.9 pts · last-10 27.4 vs season 23.7.
Caitlin ClarkIND
22.9points · ±4.7
Caitlin Clark · 22.9 pts · last-10 24.1 vs season 21.2.
Paige BueckersDAL
19.1points · ±6.5
Paige Bueckers · 19.1 pts · last-10 18.6 vs season 20.

Head-to-head · 2-4 · last 6

DAL is 2-4 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2025-07-13DAL @ IND83–102
2025-08-01IND @ DAL88–78
2025-08-12DAL @ IND81–80
2026-05-09DAL @ IND107–104
2026-08-14DAL @ IND87–98

Line move

open +105→+130toward IND

The market has moved 5.3pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

36.1%

ensemble · IND favored

Elo Static
43.9%
P(DAL win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
43.6%
P(DAL win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
43.9%
P(DAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.14 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like IND.

IND's edge is mostly line steam plus recent form. Model confidence is the main caution flag.

+3.7

pp edge · IND

+6.72

CLV pp · steam

5.0u · large

on IND

72.5%

±9.8pp band

5u large — +10.1pp edge, quarter Kelly capped.

Edge

+12.5pp

+8.8pp post-cal

Kelly

26.8%

5.0% sized

Decimal

1.60

+10.1pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 3.7pp · IND over DAL

▲
Line steam87% conf
The market moved 5.1pp toward IND since open.
+2.1pp
▲
Recent form70% conf
IND is 5-0 over its last 5; DAL is 1-4.
+1.9pp
▲
Venue split66% conf
IND's venue form is 30pp stronger in the recent sample.
+1.8pp
▼
Model confidence68% conf
IND sits near the model-market noise floor.
-1.0pp
▼
Travel burden58% conf
IND is carrying the heavier road load, so the edge gets a haircut.
-0.6pp
▼
Rest advantage65% conf
DAL has the rest edge entering this game.
-0.4pp
▼
Head to head48% conf
DAL has controlled the recent head-to-head sample.
-0.2pp

Open price

-125

Close price

-166

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

60.0%

Market steamed in our direction

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in IND at DAL?: The model favors IND, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Player projections

DAL vs IND.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 110 high confidence

Points

Kelsey MitchellIND
25.9± 4.4high
Caitlin ClarkIND
22.9± 4.7high
Paige BueckersDAL
19.1± 6.5high

Rebounds

Jessica ShepardDAL
10.0± 5.0high
Aliyah BostonIND
8.1± 4.2high
Makayla TimpsonIND
5.3± 2.6high

Assists

Caitlin ClarkIND
8.3± 1.9high
Paige BueckersDAL
5.3± 2.5high
Jessica ShepardDAL
4.8± 3.1high

Blocks

Awak KuierDAL
1.3± 1.1high
Aliyah BostonIND
1.3± 1.2high
Makayla TimpsonIND
1.0± 1.3high

Steals

Azzi FuddDAL
1.7± 1.1high
Aliyah BostonIND
1.7± 1.9high
Kelsey MitchellIND
1.3± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Indiana FeverDallas Wings

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop

Indiana Fever at Dallas Wings

DAL vs IND.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like IND.

DAL vs IND.