Indiana Fever at Dallas Wings
IND
10-7
DAL
11-6
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
ndiana Fever visit Dallas Wings Thursday at 8/20 - 8:00 PM EDT. IND is 6-3 in their last 9. DAL is 5-3 in their last 8.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
IND
Away
Stat
DAL
Home
46
FG %
46
Season series
DAL leads series 1-0
DAL107@IND104DAL@INDupcomingIND@DALtodayScouting report
IND @ DAL
Model edge vs market
Lean onlyMarket
—
Model
IND -3.8
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
IND
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
10-7
Record
11-6
#3
Conf rank
#3
+3.2
Pt diff
+4.5
W1
Streak
W2
6-4
Last 10
7-3
64.6
Power score
60.8
#5
Power rank
#6
42.8
Sched ahead
80.2
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
48.2%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DAL vs IND.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 20 high confidence
Points
- Caitlin ClarkIND20.4± 9.1medium
- Kelsey MitchellIND20.4± 4.2high
- Paige BueckersDAL19.4± 7.9medium
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL11.4± 4.6medium
- Aliyah BostonIND8.9± 2.0medium
- Monique BillingsIND4.8± 3.8medium
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.8± 3.1medium
- Paige BueckersDAL6.3± 4.0medium
- Jessica ShepardDAL5.3± 3.5medium
Blocks
- Aliyah BostonIND1.5± 1.4medium
- Awak KuierDAL1.2± 1.1low
- Azzi FuddDAL1.1± 1.6medium
Steals
- Azzi FuddDAL1.7± 1.8medium
- Aziaha JamesDAL1.3± 1.3medium
- Arike OgunbowaleDAL1.0± 1.2medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
IND
league avg
DAL
46.1%
FG%
44.6
46.2%
34.5%
3PT %
33.3
34.6%
92.1
PPG
85.9
89.4
20.5
Assists / G
18.0
▶23.1
15.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.4