Park factor
115 total idx
Coors Field run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies
LAD
LAD
75-51
PregameWed, 8:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
COL
COL
50-75
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketCoors Field · Denver, Colorado
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Roki Sasaki
SP · #11
5-5
W-L
4.46
ERA
1.29
WHIP
108
K
111.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsMIL-6.0 IP2 ER2 K
@ARI-6.0 IP2 ER5 K
vsSEAW(5-5)5.1 IP2 ER7 K
Home starter
Kyle Freeland
SP · #21
4-10
W-L
6.27
ERA
1.44
WHIP
98
K
120.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@SFW(4-10)8.0 IP1 ER2 K
@STL-4.1 IP1 ER3 K
vsKCW(3-10)9.0 IP1 ER8 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob71% / 29%
LeanAway · 21pp
Confidence★ Lock
Head to head
SeriesLAD lead series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Scouting report · pre-game
COL vs LAD.
COL is 5-5 recently; LAD is 6-4.
29.0%
model · COL win prob
Recent form
- COL5–5-1.1
- LAD6–4+0.3
Situational
- COL2d rest
- LAD2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. COL has 0 straight road games; LAD has 1.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 1.3 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+1.3pp
Players to watch
- Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD6.3strikeouts · ±2.1
Yoshinobu Yamamoto · 6.3 K · last-10 6.3 vs season 6.2.
- Roki SasakiLAD4.9strikeouts · ±2.2
Roki Sasaki · 4.9 K · last-10 4.8 vs season 5.1.
- Kyle FreelandCOL4.6strikeouts · ±2.8
Kyle Freeland · 4.6 K · last-10 4.9 vs season 4.3.
Head-to-head · 0-1 · last 1
COL is 0-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-08-17LAD @ COL11–5
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
28.3%
ensemble · LAD favored
Elo Static
36.7%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
34.5%
P(COL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
37.6%
P(COL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.30 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
91% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
COL vs LAD.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
127
projections · 94 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Tarik SkubalLAD7.5± 2.5medium
- Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD6.3± 2.1high
- Kris BubicLAD5.7± 3.6low
Hits
- Jake McCarthyCOL1.2± 1.3high
- Andy PagesLAD1.1± 1.0high
- TJ RumfieldCOL1.0± 1.0high
Total bases
- Zac VeenCOL2.3± 2.8low
- Hunter GoodmanCOL2.0± 3.3high
- Jake McCarthyCOL2.0± 3.1high
RBIs
- Zac VeenCOL1.3± 1.3low
- Brett SullivanCOL0.8± 1.3high
- Hunter GoodmanCOL0.8± 1.6high
Earned runs
- Gabriel HughesCOL3.5± 3.5low
- Kyle FreelandCOL3.4± 2.0high
- Ryan FeltnerCOL3.2± 2.4medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
LAD
league avg
COL
.765
OPS
◀
.719
.741
.336
OBP
◀
.318
.323
4.98
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.81
3.69
Team ERA
◀
4.17
5.51
1.16
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.52
9.1
K / 9
◀
8.5
7.0
The One model★ Lock
Wed, Aug 19LAD★
Dodgers
90-65
vs71.1%LAD
COL
Rockies
56-89
LAD 71.1%win prob28.9% COL
LAD 1546 · COL 1427Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
