Park factor
96 total idx
Tropicana Field run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays
TOR
TOR
61-65
PregameWed, 6:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
TB
TB
75-49
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketTropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Max Scherzer
SP · #31
1-5
W-L
6.59
ERA
1.46
WHIP
31
K
41.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsBOSL(1-5)5.0 IP1 ER4 K
@PHI-5.1 IP2 ER4 K
vsSTL-6.0 IP1 ER5 K
Home starter
Drew Rasmussen
SP · #57
12-5
W-L
2.78
ERA
0.91
WHIP
133
K
129.1
IP
Last 3 starts
@ATHW(12-5)5.0 IP2 ER3 K
@SEAW(11-5)7.0 IP0 ER8 K
vsCHWW(10-5)6.0 IP0 ER10 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob33% / 67%
LeanHome · 17pp
Confidence★ Lock
Head to head
SeriesSeries tied 1-1
TypePreseason Series
Scouting report · pre-game
TB vs TOR.
TB is 7-3 recently; TOR is 7-3.
66.9%
model · TB win prob
Recent form
- TB7–3+1.2
- TOR7–3+0.4
Situational
- TB2d rest
- TOR3d rest
- -1.0d differential
TOR has 1 more rest day. TB has 0 straight road games; TOR has 0.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.3 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.3pp
Players to watch
- Dylan CeaseTOR8.6strikeouts · ±2.6
Dylan Cease · 8.6 K · last-10 8.6 vs season 8.5.
- Ian SeymourTB5.4strikeouts · ±2.8
Ian Seymour · 5.4 K · last-10 7 vs season 2.9.
- Drew RasmussenTB5.2strikeouts · ±3.1
Drew Rasmussen · 5.2 K · last-10 5 vs season 5.6.
Head-to-head · 3-1 · last 4
TB is 3-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-07-20TB @ TOR7–1
- 2026-07-21TB @ TOR12–2
- 2026-07-22TB @ TOR4–2
- 2026-07-23TB @ TOR1–3
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
68.4%
ensemble · TB favored
Elo Static
70.6%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
75.1%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
72.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.87 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
88% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
TB vs TOR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
127
projections · 109 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Dylan CeaseTOR8.6± 2.6high
- Ian SeymourTB5.4± 2.8high
- Drew RasmussenTB5.2± 3.1high
Hits
- Chandler SimpsonTB1.6± 1.0high
- Yandy DiazTB1.4± 1.3high
- Jonathan ArandaTB1.2± 0.9high
Total bases
- Yandy DiazTB2.2± 2.2high
- Chandler SimpsonTB1.8± 1.3high
- Junior CamineroTB1.7± 1.8high
RBIs
- Junior CamineroTB0.8± 1.0high
- Liam HicksTB0.8± 1.5high
- Andres GimenezTOR0.7± 1.0high
Earned runs
- Freddy PeraltaTB3.5± 3.2high
- Max ScherzerTOR3.0± 3.6low
- Shane BieberTOR2.7± 3.0low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
TOR
league avg
TB
.678
OPS
.719
▶.740
.304
OBP
.318
▶.331
3.90
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.56
3.95
Team ERA
4.17
▶3.78
1.31
WHIP
1.30
▶1.15
8.8
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.3
The One model★ Lock
Wed, Aug 19TOR
Blue Jays
65-94
vs66.9%TB
TB★
Rays
103-49
TOR 33.1%win prob66.9% TB
TB 1589 · TOR 1461Box score→
Team pages
Elsewhere in the MLB
- TigersPirates8/19 - 12:35 PM EDT
- PadresMets8/19 - 1:10 PM EDT
- BravesTwins8/19 - 1:40 PM EDT
- White SoxCubs8/19 - 2:20 PM EDT
- DiamondbacksRed Sox8/19 - 4:10 PM EDT
- MarlinsPhillies8/19 - 6:05 PM EDT
- YankeesOrioles8/19 - 6:35 PM EDT
- GiantsGuardians8/19 - 6:40 PM EDT
- CardinalsReds8/19 - 6:40 PM EDT
- AthleticsRoyals8/19 - 7:40 PM EDT
- MarinersBrewers8/19 - 7:40 PM EDT
- NationalsRangers8/19 - 8:05 PM EDT
- AngelsAstros8/19 - 8:10 PM EDT
- DodgersRockies8/19 - 8:40 PM EDT
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
