Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYY at BAL?

The model favors NYY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Aug 19, 2026

NYY

70-55

PregameWed, 6:35 PM EDTMLB.TV, Prime Video, MLB Net

BAL

61-65

ATS/NYY -1.5O/U/9ML/NYY-121

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Park factor

97 total idx

Oriole Park at Camden Yards run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

6-4

NYY +0.6 vs BAL +0.5 margin

NYY brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland

Line movement

200 snapshots

BAL spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

BAL no-vig %

47.6%

open 47.6%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Will Warren

SP · #29

8-6

W-L

4.42

ERA

1.41

WHIP

117

118.0

Last 3 starts

vsSEA-4.0 IP5 ER3 K

vsSTLL(8-6)5.1 IP3 ER5 K

@CHCW(8-5)6.2 IP0 ER7 K

Home starter

Chris Bassitt

SP · #40

4-4

W-L

5.11

ERA

1.62

WHIP

61.2

Last 3 starts

@TB-5.1 IP2 ER3 K

@BOSL(4-4)3.0 IP3 ER1 K

vsTOR-6.0 IP1 ER2 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 9

Money-121 / +101

Model edge

Win prob57% / 43%

LeanAway · 7pp

ConfidenceLean

Head to head

SeriesNYY lead series 1-0

TypeCurrent Series

Place a bet

Take NYY on the model side.

Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.

Model side · moneyline

-121Bet NYY ML↗-121Bet NYY ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 9Bet the total↗O/U 9Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Scouting report · pre-game

BAL vs NYY.

BAL is 5-5 recently; NYY is 6-4.

43.2%

model · BAL win prob

Recent form

BAL5–5+0.5
NYY6–4+0.6

Situational

BAL1d restB2B
NYY1d restB2B
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. BAL has 0 straight road games; NYY has 4.

Model angle

+4.5ppon NYY

NYY's edge is mostly venue split plus head to head. Travel burden is the main caution flag. Weather and park remove about 0.3 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.3pp
▼Travel burden-1.1pp
▲Venue split+0.6pp

Players to watch

Cam SchlittlerNYY
7.7strikeouts · ±2.2
Cam Schlittler · 7.7 K · last-10 8 vs season 7.3.
Shane BazBAL
5.5strikeouts · ±3.0
Shane Baz · 5.5 K · last-10 5.6 vs season 5.3.
Trevor RogersBAL
5.5strikeouts · ±1.7
Trevor Rogers · 5.5 K · last-10 6 vs season 4.7.

Head-to-head · 0-1 · last 1

BAL is 0-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-08-18NYY @ BAL3–1

Line move

open +101→+101flat

The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.0%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
45.0%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
44.1%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
45.6%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.62 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like NYY.

NYY's edge is mostly venue split plus head to head. Travel burden is the main caution flag.

+4.5

pp edge · NYY

0.00

CLV pp

3.0u · large

on NYY

60.1%

±5.6pp band

2.95u large — +5.3pp edge, quarter Kelly.

Edge

+7.7pp

+3.2pp post-cal

Kelly

11.8%

2.9% sized

Decimal

1.83

+5.3pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 4.5pp · NYY over BAL

▼
Travel burden58% conf
NYY is carrying the heavier road load, so the edge gets a haircut.
-1.1pp
▲
Venue split64% conf
NYY's venue form is 11.7pp stronger in the recent sample.
+0.6pp
▼
Model confidence68% conf
NYY is a lean, so the confidence layer stays modest.
-0.5pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
NYY has taken 2 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.2pp

Open price

-121

Close price

-121

Open no-vig

52.4%

Close no-vig

52.4%

Line barely moved

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYY at BAL?: The model favors NYY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+4.5pp

best edge · NYY · DraftKings

NYY

★ best

-121DraftKings

edge +4.5pp · implied 52.4%

BAL

no live price

Book	NYY	BAL	Best edge
DraftKings	-121★	+101	+4.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

BAL vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 110 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cam SchlittlerNYY
7.7± 2.2high
Gerrit ColeNYY
6.5± 2.4medium
Carlos RodonNYY
5.6± 2.0low

Hits

Pete AlonsoBAL
1.5± 0.9high
Trent GrishamNYY
1.1± 1.1high
Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

Pete AlonsoBAL
2.9± 2.7high
Trent GrishamNYY
2.5± 3.3high
Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
1.9± 2.5high

RBIs

Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL
1.0± 1.4high
Pete AlonsoBAL
0.9± 1.3high
Trent GrishamNYY
0.9± 1.4high

Earned runs

Will WarrenNYY
2.8± 2.4high
Chris BassittBAL
2.5± 2.2low
Shane BazBAL
2.5± 1.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYY

league avg

BAL

.715

OPS

.719

.718

.308

OBP

.318

▶

.320

4.43

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.52

3.24

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.23

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.35

9.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.1

The One modelLean

Wed, Aug 19

NYY★

Yankees

81-67

vs56.9%NYY

BAL

Orioles

65-87

NYY 56.9%win prob43.1% BAL

NYY 1528 · BAL 1469Box score→

Team pages

New York YankeesBaltimore Orioles

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles

The matchup, end-to-end.

Take NYY on the model side.

BAL vs NYY.

3 sub-models, blended.

Why we like NYY.

Where to bet this game.

BAL vs NYY.

Team rate stats vs league

Where to bet this game.

Why we like NYY.